PROTESTS TESTING BOLIVIA'S BOILING POINT

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 003075

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2017
TAGS: PGOV BL
SUBJECT: PROTESTS TESTING BOLIVIA'S BOILING POINT

Classified By: Acting EcoPol Chief Timothy Joe Relk for reasons 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) Summary: Protests and counter-protests threaten to
dominate Bolivia for at least the coming week. Although the
Bolivian government said it asked pro-government farmers
surrounding the headquarters of the Constituent Assembly to
back off, they remain mobilized in the city, as do opposition
student and civic group demonstrators. Sucre protests turned
violent November 20 and at least one farmer and one student
were hospitalized. The protests successfully blocked the
Constituent Assembly from reconvening yet again today.
Meanwhile, protesters lined the streets around the Bolivian
Congress today in La Paz, following through on President
Morales' promises to confront the Senate over its alleged
failure to pass his legislative agenda. Another Senate
demonstration is scheduled for November 26. Opposition
leaders have also planned demonstrations in five of Bolivia's
nine departments to protest the use of local government funds
to finance Morales' "Plan Dignity," which would provide
additional support to the Bolivian elderly. An alternate
congressman aligned with the opposition told PolOff November
21 that the Senate would unveil its version of Plan Dignity
the morning of November 22 to ensure funding does not come
from department (state) budgets and defuse future anti-Senate
protests. End Summary.

Sucre Simmers, But Does Not Boil Over, Yet
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2. (U) Sporadic clashes broke out in Sucre on November 20
between groups who support and oppose the returning of the
executive and legislative branches to Sucre. Both groups
claim to be keeping a "vigil" around the site of the
Constituent Assembly. According to news reports and Embassy
contacts, a relatively small group (estimates of 300 or less)
of pro-MAS "campesinos" (peasant farmers) mostly from Oruro
and Potosi departments (states) surrounded the Assembly's
headquarters to protest the restoration of Sucre to full
capital status early in the morning. A larger group of
pro-Sucre supporters confronted the campesinos to pressure
them to leave the headquarters. According to media reports,
fighting broke out after some pro-Sucre demonstrators began
shouting epithets, calling the campesinos "llamas" and
"Chavez's monkeys," (referring to Venezuelan President Hugo
Chavez).


3. (U) Two Embassy contacts in Sucre played down the clashes,
stating that they were relatively minor. However, several
people were injured with at least two requiring hospital care
-- one student from the pro-Sucre side and one campesino.
Pro-MAS campesino groups also attempted to block the roads to
cut off Sucre's food and water. Their efforts were at best
only partially successful. When a reporter questioned the
strategy, as it would also cut water supplies for campesino
crops, campesino leader Juan Pijcha argued this was
collateral damage campesinos were prepared to accept. "In
the war we must lose something."


4. (U) Tensions remain high between the two groups and a
renewal of clashes appears imminent, although on November 21
there were only minor altercations. Government spokesperson
Alex Contreras said the government asked campesinos to back
off from Assembly headquarters to avoid further conflict, but
critics of the campesino protesters argue the government is
providing them with food and money to continue their
protests. Sources say only a few campesinos had left Sucre
at the time the Assembly was scheduled to reconvene on
November 21. Due to pressure by both the pro- and anti-Sucre
groups, the Assembly once again failed to meet on November

21.

Thousands Protest Senate Meddling in Evo's Legislation
-------------- --------------


5. (U) President Morales appears to be following through on a
November 12 threat to confront the Bolivian Senate for
holding up his legislative agency. An estimated 10,000
Morales supporters from La Paz's neighboring city of El Alto
marched on the Senate today (November 21),burning effigies
of opposition leaders and trying to break into the Congress
building. The Altenos, organized by labor and civic groups,
are also demanding the Senate change the legal requirement
requiring the Constitutional Assembly be held Sucre. Ruling
MAS party leaders accuse Sucre groups of holding the Assembly
hostage to the capital issue and want the ability to move the
Assembly to the Morales stronghold of Oruro. The MAS
predicts it can mobilized 21,000 protesters to march on the
Senate November 26, mainly small farmers campesinos from La
Paz and Oruro departments (states). Coca farmers from the
Yungas area of La Paz Department claim they will bring 20,000
protesters alone. Morales also threatened to stop executive
cooperation with the Senate by November 26, such as
responding to Senate requests for testimony or reports from
government ministries.

Plan Dignity Fallout Sets Stage for Conflict
--------------


6. (U) Morales is especially keen to pressure the Senate into
passing "Plan Dignity," which has already passed the Lower
House of Congress. Opposition leaders in the Senate have
indicated they are inclined to approve the plan, which
extends both the amount and age limit for government payments
to the elderly. However, they want funding to come from
federal coffers, not from the current draft's redistribution
of Bolivia's hydrocarbon tax from department budgets.
Opposition department prefects (governors) and civic groups
from five of Bolivia's nine states met November 17-19 and
outlined "gradual" and "democratic" measures to protest the
proposed budget changes with demonstrations, hunger strikes,
and civil disobedience. The group also published a
declaration titled "Patience Has a Limit," which supports
Sucre's demand to resolve the capital issue at the
Constituent Assembly, includes a new set of regulations
supporting autonomy of opposition-controlled states should
the Assembly fail to pass a new constitution, and announced
lawsuits against the government to protect their claim to the
hydrocarbons tax. Santa Cruz leaders announced
demonstrations starting November 22.

Morales Interviews Self: Finds Opposition "Seditious"
-------------- --------------


7. (U) President Morales responded to the opposition protests
of funding cuts with the following monologue: "Some prefects
talk about civil disobedience. What is this? This is
sedition." The next day, Government Spokesman Alex Contreras
accused opposition prefects and civic groups of sedition and
conspiracy for publishing the declaration, which he alleged
is tantamount to an alternate constitution. He asserted the
government was coordinating with "social movements" to react
to the proposed opposition protests, in addition to legal
challenges to the declaration. Vice Minister of Justice
Wilfredo Chavez added on, claiming "we are not going to
tolerate this sedition."

Senate President: "Without Congress There is no Democracy"
-------------- --------------


8. (U) Senate President Jose Villavicencio (UN Party) said
November 21 that the Senate would not approve laws "under
pressure" from demonstrators. He said the Senate would
refuse to convene if Morales surrounds Congress with
protesters, effectively blaming Morales for stopping Bolivian
democracy. "Without Congress there is no democracy." Other
opposition senators suggested the Senate simply meet
elsewhere, but MAS Senator Lino Willca argued this would
conflict with Senate rules. The Santa Cruz Civic Committee
issued a statement late November 21 calling for the
government to stop threatening the Congress, respect the law,
and return to dialogue.

Senate Promotes Its Own Dignity; Moonlights on Constitution
-------------- --------------


9. (C) Alternate Congressman Franklin Lavayen (opposition
PODEMOS Party, lower house) told PolOff November 21 that
opposition senators informed him the Senate would not meet
during the El Alto protest. Instead, opposition senators
plan to meet later November 21 to put the final touches on a
draft of Plan Dignity to be voted on during the morning of
November 22. The opposition version would be funded from
federal coffers, not from department shares of the
hydrocarbon tax, and would defuse future anti-Senate
protests, according to Lavayen.


10. (C) Lavayen discounted recent protests as posturing. He
assured that behind the hyperbolic public statements, most
Congressmen get along. "Everyone talks about the tension,
but that is only for show." Lavayen said Congress was
already de-facto working on a new constitution, with little
input from Assembly leaders, to include a "big compromise"
among legislators regarding the capital issue, autonomy of
departments, and presidential re-election. He said violence
would not erupt in earnest until the "main event," the
December 14 deadline for the Assembly to draft a new
constitution. Then, he feared, violence could get out of
hand as both government and opposition leaders overestimate
their ability to control protesters, which is exactly "what
extremists on both sides want."


11. (C) Comment: The Senate President is not playing along
with Evo. Threatening to boycott his own institution if
Morales continues to surround it with protesters and thus
casting Morales as the terminator of (institutional)
democracy is risky. How this resonates with the Bolivian
people will depend on Morales' ability to caste the Senate as
opponents to the will of the people, embodied in Evo himself.
End Comment.
GOLDBERG