SUCRE'S STATUS COULD KILL CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002647

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/01/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL PINR BL
SUBJECT: SUCRE'S STATUS COULD KILL CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY


Classified By: EcoPol chief Mike Hammer for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) Emboffs recently held separate meetings with three
of Sucre city and Chuquisaca department's leading figures;
discussions focused on: the fate of the Constituent Assembly,
the likelihood of a referendum on returning Sucre to full
capital status, and the Prefect's surprise reversal of his
resignation. Representing the anti-central government view
was Sucre Mayor Aydee Nava and President of the
Inter-Institutional Commission on Full Capital Status Jaime
Barron. Defending (albeit weakly) the central government was
newly reinstalled Chuquisaca department Prefect David
Sanchez. The three presented their views on the fate of the
Constituent Assembly, arguing the assembly is likely dead if
the question of returning Sucre to full capital status is not
resolved. All support a proposal for a referendum on Sucre's
status, but see it as improbable. All including, Sanchez
himself, commented that the impetus for the prefect's return
-- after his resignation on August 30 -- was the ruling
Movement Toward Socialism's (MAS) fear that it would lose the
prefecture in a new election. While Sucre is the host to the
Constituent Assembly, none of the three discussed the most
polemical issues facing the assembly other than the status of
Sucre. This singular focus highlights the fact that Sucre's
residents are far from giving up their fight for full capital
status, boding poorly for the assembly's future. End
Summary.

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Sucre Holds the Fate of the Constituent Assembly
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2. (C) In three separate meetings (on September 19 and 20)
Sucre Mayor Aydee Nava, the President of the
Inter-Institutional Commission on Full Capital Status Jaime
Barron, and Chuquisaca department Prefect David Sanchez
shared their views on the future of the Constituent Assembly
and several other topics. The three agreed that the fate of
the Constituent Assembly was rather tenuous, and that it was
linked to the issue of returning Sucre to full capital
status. Sucre Mayor Nava appeared the most inflexible of the
three. She argued that her city would not allow the assembly
to reconvene on October 8 if the issue of returning the
legislative and executive branches to Sucre was not
reinserted into the assembly's agenda. (Note: The ruling
Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) managed to strike the topic
from the agenda on August 15 via a simple majority vote. End
Note). Nonetheless, Nava expressed considerable doubt that
negotiations between the opposition and the MAS, and between
Sucre and La Paz, would yield the result she and her
constituents are seeking. The mayor seemed comfortable with
(or at least resigned to) the possibility that her city would
become a battleground between forces who support Sucre's
return to full capital status (generally anti-MAS and
anti-central government) and those groups who wish to see the
status-quo remain (generally pro-MAS and pro-central
government).


3. (C) Barron explained that the issue of Sucre's status
was brought up in seven separate Constituent Assembly
commissions, arguing that the Constituent Assembly (and the
MAS specifically) could try to ignore the issue, but that the
issue would never go away. Unlike Nava, Barron had a less
fatalistic view on the subject, and repeated the often heard
comment "Bolivia goes to the precipice but always pulls
back." He cited the MAS' recent decision to close the
Constituent Assembly for a month's recess and the relatively
peaceful pro-MAS rally on September 10 as new examples of
Bolivia pulling back from the brink. That said, Barron like
Nava did not express high hopes for the negotiations between
his city and La Paz that the central government was
sponsoring.


4. (C) Prefect David Sanchez mentioned that his resignation
on August 30 helped reduce tensions in Sucre and the
Constituent Assembly. Sanchez resigned stating that he did
not want remain prefect and have blood on his hands, if what
appeared to be inevitable violence ensued in Sucre on or
around September 10. (Comment: Sanchez is probably correct,
and not simply stroking his own ego, in stating he helped
reduce tensions. Sanchez's very public resignation and his
rejection of the central government's anti-Sucre bias (which
contrasts with the Morales administration's stated
impartiality) on the capital question probably did help to
ease tensions. Morales likely realized that public opinion
would turn against his government, if he and his followers
did not back down a bit, at least temporarily, on the Sucre
issue. End Comment).

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Why the Prefect Came Back
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5. (C) Prefect Sanchez's return, after his public
resignation, generated much conversation. All three,
including Sanchez, acknowledged that the MAS wanted him back
so that the party would not lose the prefecture, given that
Chuquisaca department has now fallen into the opposition camp
because of the Sucre issue. Interestingly, Sanchez admitted
that he was not sure whether his relationship with President
Morales and the central government was any better following
his return. The prefect later stated, perhaps referring to
himself, that "some in the MAS are not happy."


6. (C) Comment: It is not clear if Prefect Sanchez will
stay in his position very term. At one point during the
conversation we raised concerns about Morales' undemocratic
tendencies; Sanchez then asked his aide to leave the room.
Sanchez expressed his own misgivings about Evo and informed
us that he has directly told the president that he needs to
be more conciliatory towards the opposition, apparently to no
effect. Sanchez has never been a MAS true believer and finds
unacceptable what he called "racism" emanating from the
central government. Sanchez, an evangelical Christian, may
also be uncomfortable with many of Morales' comments against
the church (albeit against the Catholic Church). Finally, he
confided that the stress of his job had contributed to
marital problems, for which he and his wife were receiving
counseling. His values and his family problems may lead
Sanchez to resign again. Alternatively, if the MAS finds an
electable replacement, it is quite likely that Evo would want
to rid himself of Sanchez. End Comment.

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A Sucre vs. La Paz Referendum?
All Pain, No Gain for La Paz
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7. (C) The three stated their support for a referendum on
the capital issue, yet they all seemed to understand the
difficulty in arriving at such a referendum. Jaime Barron
summoned up the Sucre versus La Paz referendum dilemma best.
Should La Paz lose the referendum, the legislative and
executive branch would move to Sucre, taking thousands of
jobs with them. Barron explained that La Paz has much to
lose, and nothing to gain. Meanwhile Sucre is in the
opposite position, nothing to lose and everything to gain.
Barron added that Sucre today would likely win the
referendum. He noted that the majority of voters in
Chuquisaca, Sucre's home department, Potosi its neighboring
department as well as the four lowland (aka media luna)
departments of Beni, Pando, Santa Cruz and Tarija all favor
Sucre over La Paz. Barron cited Oruro and La Paz departments
as the only places where La Paz city retains support. With
no possible upside and a high likelihood of losing, it is
unlikely that either La Paz or the MAS would agree to a
referendum.
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What is the MAS Prepared to Give Sucre?
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8. (C) Barron, Nava, and Sanchez discussed what the MAS has
offered Sucre in return for taking the Sucre capital question
off the table. Nava mentioned that the MAS has offered to
relocate several ministries, specifically mentioning the
Ministry of Justice. In addition, Barron stated the Tax
Service, the Comptroller's Office, and a certain number of
Congressional sessions were on the table. Barron and Sanchez
also mentioned that the MAS has offered to pay for and
expedite the construction of a new airport.

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A MAS Tactical Error
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9. (C) Barron noted that MAS had committed a tactical error
in drawing the line on Sucre so early, stating "they (the
MAS) did not use their coco (head)." Barron explained that
the MAS should have allowed for debate on the issue until
December. By then other hot topics might have been resolved,
and delegates (and the Bolivian people in general) would have
been less likely to give up on the Constituent Assembly. He
added that by December many people (especially students)
would be on vacation and no longer in Sucre.

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Comment
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10. (C) Despite the fact that the Constituent Assembly is
based in their city, noticeably absent from all three
(separate) discussions was attention to some of the core
issues facing the assembly )- polemical issues such as
re-election of the president, proposals to change the
congress, and departmental versus indigenous autonomy. The
status of Sucre was almost exclusively the topic of
discussion. Perhaps this focus was not surprising given the
old adage that "all politics is local," and that all three
(Nava, Barron, and Sanchez) call Sucre their home.
Nonetheless, the sole focus on the status of Sucre highlights
assembly's precarious situation. Despite MAS and La Paz's
attempts to remove the "capital question" from Constituent
Assembly, Sucre's residents will not let it go. Unless
attitudes in Sucre and La Paz change soon ) by October 8
when the assembly resumes -- the status of Sucre may end up
torpedo-ing the assembly. End Comment.
GOLDBERG