SUCRE - A STEP BACK FROM THE BRINK

UNCLAS LA PAZ 002488 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BL SUBJECT: SUCRE - A STEP BACK FROM THE BRINK REF: A. LA PAZ 2465 ¶B. LA PAZ 2333 ¶C. LA PAZ 2090 - - - - Summary - - - - ¶1. (SBU) A decision by the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) dominated Constituent Assembly directive on September 7, and a court decision on September 8 served to reduce tensions in Sucre, site of Bolivia's Constituent Assembly. Pro- and anti-government groups had descended on Sucre prepared to fight over the proposal of returning the legislative and executive branch to Sucre as well as other polemical issues (ref A). Most observers agreed that serious conflict was inevitable unless one side backed-down. Late on September 7, the Constituent Assembly's directive decided to call for a one-month recess to reduce the possibility for clashes in Sucre. Opponents (primarily from the MAS) of Sucre's restoration were handed a defeat when the Superior Court of Chuquisaca, on September 8, ruled against the Constituent Assembly's August 15 decision to exclude discussion of the issue. Despite the two decisions, the potential for conflict remains. Optimists see the directive's decision as the MAS behaving responsibly to avoid a conflict and pave the way for dialogue; pessimists view it as a cynical ploy by the MAS to regroup and redefine its strategy for pushing through its agenda in the Constituent Assembly. End Summary. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Reaching The Decision to Suspend - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶2. (SBU) Seven members -- five from the MAS and two from the National Unity Party (UN) -- of the eleven Constituent Assembly directive members met the morning of September 7 to deliberate over suspending the assembly for one month until October 8. According to MAS representative and Constituent Assembly President Silvia Lazarte Flores it was UN representative Angel Vilacorte who proposed the suspension. Representatives of PODEMOS, the main opposition party, were not invited to the deliberations. Directive member Mauricio Paz, a representative from PODEMOS, in learning about the recess stated that the MAS had once again violated the Constituent Assembly's norms. President Lazarte cited Article 12, section B of the assembly's regulations as the basis of the decision, which states the president can "suspend and close" the assembly's sessions. Villacorte explained that the directive decided to suspend the assembly to reduce the possibility for conflict. Villacorte also stated the break should be used to establish a dialogue over the issue of capital, and other hotly contested issues before the Constituent Assembly. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Lazarte - Divides Rather Than Unifies - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶3. (SBU) While the Constituent Assembly's recess has been touted as a measure to reduce tensions, President Lazarte in an open letter to the press on September 9 likely antagonized the opposition. Lazarte wrote, "We made this decision convinced that the strength of the democracy of the Bolivian people will persevere over the conservative interests of the little egotistical elite (MAS code for the opposition) who work . . . to bring us to confrontation." She continued by writing that the elite, "hate their nation, in which for the first time people feel proud to be chola, indigenous, mestizo . . ." She concluded by stating, "I have no doubt that the Social Summit (of pro-MAS groups) which will convene tomorrow in the city of Sucre will be a great celebration for democracy, that will deepen the promise of re-founding a united country, just, dignified and sovereign." - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Reactions to the Suspension - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶4. (SBU) Despite the one-month recess, pro-MAS (indigenous, labor and coca grower) groups still converged on Sucre for a September 10 for a "Social Summit." Organizers of the event state it will peaceful and argue that its goal is to show that the Constituent Assembly enjoys broad support. (Note: A follow-up cable will discuss the outcome, if any, of the "Social Summit." End Note). There are still concerns that pro-MAS groups will clash with opposition supporters and Sucre residents who want to see their city returned to full capital status. Jaime Barron, rector of Sucre's University San Francisco Xavier and the president of the group leading Sucre's demand for full capital status called for the people of his city to avoid confrontations with pro-MAS groups. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Court Rules Sucre Cannot Be Excluded - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶5. (SBU) On September 8, the Superior Court of Chuquisaca ruled against the Constituent Assembly's August 15 decision to exclude debate on moving the executive and legislative branches to Sucre (ref B). MAS and UN party representatives on the Constituent Assembly's directive stated they would not accede to the court's decision, arguing the courts had no authority over the Constituent Assembly. Proponents for Sucre's restoration saw the court's decision as a victory for their cause and argued they would call for the prosecution of directive members if they did not follow the court's orders. Based on the court's decision, Jaime Barron called off his group's hunger-strike and pressure tactics (marches). Barron stated that he and other leaders from the "Junta Democratica," a conglomeration of opposition groups, would regroup the week of September 10 to decide on how they would proceed. - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - With Tensions Lowered, Evo Resumes Caracas Visit - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ¶6. (SBU) As the tension in Sucre mounted up to September 7, Embassy La Paz had learned that President Evo Morales had canceled his planned visit to Caracas. However, he did travel to Caracas on September 8. (Comment: Perhaps with the Constituent Assembly's recess and tensions lowered, Morales felt comfortable enough to travel outside the country. End Comment). Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez used the visit to add to the Bolivian government's false claims that the USG is conspiring to topple President Morales. In addition to blasting the United States, Chavez and Morales signed letters of intent to jointly develop: two cement factories, a petrochemical plant, a forestry venture, and the remaining fifty percent of the massive Mutun iron deposit not contracted to India's Jindal Steel and Power (ref C). - - - - Comment - - - - ¶7. (SBU) Optimists see the Constituent Assembly's directive decision as the MAS backing down, acting responsibly to avoid a pending conflict, and providing a chance to begin a real dialogue. The decision provides both sides thirty days in which to reach some form of agreement on the most contentious issues; the status of Sucre, departmental and indigenous autonomy, communitarian justice, a unicameral versus a bicameral legislature, as well as single versus multiple terms for the president. Pessimists see the directive's decision as a cynical ploy by the MAS to regroup and redefine its strategy for pushing through its agenda in the Constituent Assembly. The pessimists view the recess as only delaying the inevitable clash between pro- and anti-MAS groups. Both optimists and pessimists agree that if the MAS and opposition cannot reach a compromise during the month break there is a strong possibility that the Constituent Assembly will fail. Despite pronouncements to the contrary, the opposition is likely hoping for the Constituent Assembly, the MAS, signature project, to unravel. ¶8. (SBU) The superior court's decision, while symbolic, does not necessarily change the situation on the ground. The subject of restoring Sucre to full capital status is going to loom over the Constituent Assembly despite the MAS' attempts to exclude it. End Comment. GOLDBERG