POSSIBLE VIOLENCE AHEAD IN SUCRE

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002465

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BL
SUBJECT: POSSIBLE VIOLENCE AHEAD IN SUCRE

REF: A. LA PAZ 2333


B. LA PAZ 2406

Classified By: DCM Kris Urs for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (SBU) Pro- and anti-government forces are converging on
Sucre, seat of the Constituent Assembly, poised and prepared
to clash with each other in Sucre's streets on September 10
(if not sooner). The debate over restoring Sucre as
Bolivia's full capital (it is currently only home to
judiciary) is the main catalyst for the potential conflict.
While claiming impartiality, government officials and members
of the ruling Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party continue
to encourage groups who openly oppose Sucre's restoration to
march on Sucre. As a result, residents of Sucre and
Chuquisaca department (where Sucre is located) do not view
the central government as an impartial mediator. Since
September 5, the television images from Sucre have started to
look like the Palestinian "Intifada" with students throwing
rocks, tires burning in the streets, and the police
retaliating with copious amounts of tear gas. Meanwhile, on
September 6, President Evo Morales rather than trying to
defuse the situation "unveiled" an alleged plot to topple his
government, arguing the events transpiring in Sucre are part
of the plot. End Summary.

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The Pro-Sucre Position
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2. (SBU) Since August 15, Sucre residents have been
protesting a resolution passed by MAS delegates and a few
opposition representatives from La Paz. The resolution
struck the issue of debating the return of full capital
status to Sucre from the Constituent Assembly's agenda.
Protesters view the resolution as illegal, since it passed by
simple majority rather than the required two-thirds majority
(ref A). Members of the "Junta Democratica" (Democracy
Board),a conglomeration of opposition groups that support
the Sucre's restoration and oppose the Morales government
have made several demands including, the annulment of the
August 15 resolution and that all Constituent Assembly
decisions require a two-thirds majority. The Board also
insists that all negotiations regarding the status of Sucre
be negotiated in Sucre. September 10 is the Board's declared
deadline. Opposition members in congress have told poloffs
that they expect violence on or before September 10.

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The Government's Position
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3. (SBU) MAS officials argue the Democracy Board is
anti-democratic and is actively conspiring to topple the
Morales administration. Meanwhile, government and MAS
officials continue to encourage allied groups -- labor and
indigenous groups as well as citizens of the hugely pro-MAS
city of El Alto -- to march on Sucre to defend the MAS'
proposals at the Constituent Assembly. Pro-MAS groups state
they will have 100,000 people in Sucre by September 10.
Opposition sources state this estimate is high, but
nonetheless are concerned about the large mobilization of
pro-MAS groups. These same sources state the MAS is paying
protesters to march on Sucre in support of their aims. The
MAS counter-accuses the opposition of financing its
supporters. (Note: Both sides are probably correct. End
Note).


4. (SBU) Adding further fuel to the fire, President
Morales, on September 6 unveiled an alleged plot to topple
him. The government alleges the plan was devised by a
radical Santa Cruz group called the "Nacion Camba," and
states the plan is called the "Plan to Topple the (Expletive
Deleted) Indian." According to the government, the plot's
main objective is to foment so much conflict within Bolivia
that President Morales is forced to resign. A component of
the alleged plan is for radical youth from Santa Cruz to
support (with violence) Sucre's demand for full capital
status. The Nacion Camba's end goal, as stated by the
government, is to install Potosi mayor Rene Joaquino Cabrero
as president.

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Weak Calls for Dialogue
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5. (SBU) The government has offered on several occasions to
sponsor talks calling for representatives from both sides of
the capital issue (La Paz and Sucre) to meet in a so called
neutral site (Cochabamba or Potosi). Supporters of Sucre do
not view the central government as an impartial intermediary.
In fact Chuquisaca Prefect David Sanchez, a member of the
government's MAS party, resigned his post criticizing the
government's lack of serious efforts to defuse the situation
(ref B). Referring to September 10, Sanchez also stated that
he did not want to be responsible for "the imminent and near
confrontation that could result in (many) injuries and
death."

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Changing the Venue
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6. (SBU) On September 6, Presidential spokesman Alex
Contreras offered new options to resolve the conflict.
Contreras suggested that Constituent Assembly could be
temporarily closed until the capital question were resolved,
or as an alternative he recommended that the Constituent
Assembly move to a new location, such as Oruro or Potosi.
PODEMOS, the main opposition party in the Constituent
Assembly and Congress declared that moving the Constituent
Assembly would be illegal and stated that it would not
participate in such a move. (Note: The opposition's claim
has merit since the law that convoked the Constituent
Assembly states that Sucre is the official site of the
Constituent Assembly. End Note).

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How will Security Forces Respond?
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7. (SBU) Opposition congressional members told poloffs on
September 6 that they doubted the armed forces would
intervene in the looming September 10 conflict. The current
thinking is that the armed forces might be called in after
the conflict to restore order, and keep opposing factions
separated. (Comment: Senior members of the armed forces are
generally reticent to become engaged in such a conflict,
especially since the events of October 2003. Senior officers
fear only the military, not politicians, will be blamed
(prosecuted) for any injuries or deaths resulting from their
actions in an internal conflict. End Note).


8. (SBU) The police, on the other hand, have already been
active in Sucre trying to maintain order. More radical
elements that support the Democracy Board's objectives,
generally university students, have already shown their
propensity to use force and engage the police. On August 31,
university students threw a burning tire at the prefecture
building. The police using copious amounts of tear gas
responded to the students, but also fired on many other
peaceful protesters. On September 5, students tried to take
over the Gran Mariscal Theater, site of the Constituent
Assembly. Using tear gas yet again, the police successfully
repelled the students. On September 6, confrontations
between police and radical students continued. Hospitals in
Sucre reported treating over 80 people from the side effects
of tear gas, and another 24 injuries resulting from police
pellets.

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Comments
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9. (C) Despite warnings by the Catholic Church and the
Human Rights Ombudsman, both organizations which have served
as mediators in prior Bolivian conflicts, of the potential
for serious violence, neither the government's supporters nor
the opposition are backing down. As tensions mount President
Evo Morales has reportedly postponed his trip to Venezuela
over the weekend.


10. (C) The MAS proposal to move the Constituent Assembly to
Oruro (or perhaps Potosi) will only deepen the divisions
between the MAS and opposition. Such a move, would certainly
further antagonize Sucre, and push the department of
Chuquisaca deeper into the opposition camp. For weeks rumors
have circulated that the MAS wants to approve its draft of
the constitution using its simple majority. Oruro would
provide a friendly site for this scenario, but in the end the
Constituent Assembly would lose all legitimacy.


11. (C) The latest government accusation of a "Nacion Camba"
plot to use Sucre and the Constituent Assembly as means to
topple Evo Morales and install Rene Joaquino as president has
several likely motives. It will certainly fire up Morales'
supporters, many of whom are converging on Sucre. It is also
a pre-emptive accusation that allows Morales to finger the
opposition as responsible for whatever violence that does
occur in Sucre. Finally, the "plot" indirectly serves to
discredit Joaquino, an indigenous leader of Quechua descent,
who is viewed as a possible contender to Morales in the next
presidential election. End Comment.
GOLDBERG