FOUR VIEWS OF THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY AND BEYOND

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 002098

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL PINR BL
SUBJECT: FOUR VIEWS OF THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY AND BEYOND

REF: LA PAZ 1619

Classified By: Acting Ecopol Counselor Brian Quigley
for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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Summary
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1. (C) From July 18-24, Emboff met with four Constituent
Assembly (CA) members representing different political
parties. PODEMOS delegate Gamal Serhan Jaldin of Cochabamba
argued that there is a real threat that the eastern (lowland)
departments will seek separation from the western (altiplano)
departments if their demands for departmental autonomy are
not met. He also shared that the opposition is looking to
put forward a unified candidate should there be a 2008
presidential election, and that PODEMOS leader Jorge "Tuto"
Quiroga is willing to step-aside for the cause. Serhan
mentioned he preferred to see Potosi Mayor, Rene Joaquino, a
frequently mentioned presidential candidate, run for prefect
of Potosi, thus allowing the opposition to control another
department. Fridolino Duran, who represents the licit
coca-growing region of the Yungas, and who is a member of the
tiny AYRA party -- a party once affiliated with the MAS in
the CA -- stated he has grown frustrated with the MAS over
its coca policy and the GOB's closeness to Havana and Caracas.


2. (C) Loyola Viuda de Guzman, a MAS delegate, described the
differences between the MAS and PODEMOS over homosexual
rights and "right to life." The MAS supports gay rights in
the broader context of civil rights, but Guzman stressed her
party does not have a "homosexual agenda" (e.g. the promotion
of gay marriage). Neither MAS nor PODEMOS is pro-choice,
however PODEMOS has a more conservative position stating that
conception should be considered the starting point for life.
While the CA consists of many delegates with greater
political aspirations, of the four delegates Emboff spoke
with, Jaldin was the most politically savvy with a potential
for a future in politics after the CA, possibly as mayor of
Cochabamba. End Summary.

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A Two State Solution vs. Pact Politics
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3. (C) On July 23, Emboff met with CA member Gamal Serhan
Jaldin, who represents Cochabamba city. Serhan, a member of
PODEMOS, sits on the Vision for the Country Commission, the
CA's most polemical commission. Serhan confirmed press
reports that commission president Felix Cardenas -- a member
of CN, a small party closely affiliated with the MAS -- is
the hardliner who has blocked the commission from issuing a
true minority report, reftel. (Note: On July 30, MAS
delegates in the Vision commission appeared to have finally
backed down and have allowed PODEMOS' report to become the
official minority report. End Note). Serhan characterized
his commission as a microcosm of the CA, since essentially
all issues are debated in his commission.


4. (C) Serhan discussed two possible outcomes for the CA, one
in which the CA fails and leads to the possible division of
the country, the second in which the MAS and PODEMOS reach a
pact. Serhan believes that there is real possibility that
the eastern (lowland) departments will seek separation from
the west (altiplano) departments if their demands for
departmental autonomy are not met. When queried about his
department of Cochabamba, Serhan acknowledged that it would
likely be the scene of violent confrontations since the
department is divided between pro-GOB and anti-GOB
supporters. Serhan then offered the alternative scenario in
which PODEMOS cedes on the issue of multiple presidential
re-elections in return for the MAS giving on departmental
autonomy.


5. (C) Serhan probed Emboff regarding the Embassy's view on
the CA and more importantly how the USG would respond to a
true separation of east and west Bolivia. Serhan wanted to
know if the USG is contemplating a response (i.e., conducting
scenario planning exercises) and whether the USG would
support a "two-state" solution. Emboff explained that the
USG has one policy, to support a unified Bolivia.


6. (C) Serhan also provided his views on next year's
elections (assuming the CA succeeds). Serhan explained that
PODEMOS supports the idea of a unified opposition
presidential candidate, but stated he didn't know who that
candidate might be. He did explain that PODEMOS leader Jorge
"Tuto" Quiroga is inclined to step aside and support the
eventual unified candidate. Serhan mentioned he preferred to
see Potosi Mayor Rene Joaquino, a frequently mentioned
presidential candidate, run for prefect of Potosi, thus
allowing the opposition to control another department.
Serhan explained that in his home department, PODEMOS will
likely support current prefect Manfred Reyes Villa, even
though Reyes is not a member of PODEMOS. He offered that
although Reyes is tainted and vulnerable, he is the only
alternative for the opposition. Serhan mentioned that lower
house president and MAS deputy Edmundo Novillo would be a
formidable opponent for Prefect Reyes. Finally, Serhan
explained that he is interested in running for mayor of
Cochabamba city. He noted that current mayor Gonzalo Tercero
is vulnerable, citing his alleged support for MAS militants
during the January violence in Cochabamba city.

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An Insider's View of the Coca Commission
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7. (C) On July 18 Emboff met with CA member Fridolino Duran
who represents the licit coca-growing region of the Yungas.
Duran is a member of the AYRA party, a tiny party with just
two members in the CA. He serves on the coca commission, the
first commission to issue its formal report, and one of the
few commissions to have reached consensus. At the CA's
inception AYRA members announced that they would ally
themselves with the majority Movement Towards Socialism
(MAS). Duran explained that while he and his party share
many of the MAS' goals for greater social inclusion, he has
become disillusioned with the MAS. Duran appears to have
lost faith in the MAS for two reasons, the party's close ties
to Venezuela and Cuba and its coca policy. He explained that
his supporters (and Bolivians in general) do not want a
socialist state, and many are leery of Caracas' and Havana's
involvement in Bolivia.


8. (C) On coca, Duran explained that during the commission's
early meetings, the MAS proposed expanding legal growing
areas into Bolivia's Amazon region, or essentially the entire
country. According to Duran, he argued vigorously within the
commission that growing coca outside of the traditional (and
legally established) growing areas was bad for Bolivia in
that it would increase narco-trafficking and would put at
risk international assistance. Duran stated that he
threatened to break with the majority if it did not
relinquish their coca expansion plans. When his MAS
colleagues refused to back down, Duran explained that he
organized a group from the Yungas to protest outside the CA.
Eventually, according to Duran, the protests succeeded in
changing the MAS' position.


9. (C) Comment: Duran's coca commission anecdote provides yet
another example of Yungas coca-growers challenging the MAS,
to retain their monopoly on legal coca cultivation. Duran
may also have been portraying himself in a positive light to
line up USG assistance. He closed the meeting with a request
for Embassy assistance in establishing a community radio
station to counter the MAS' propaganda machine. End Comment.

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Two Views on the Commission on Rights and Guarantees
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10. (C) Emboff separately met with Dr. Jaime Hurtado Poveda,
the president of the Commission on Rights and Guarantees, as
well as commission member Loyola Viuda de Guzman. Dr.
Hurtado is a member of the opposition party PODEMOS, while
Ms. Guzman represents the MAS. The commission issued
majority (MAS) and minority (PODEMOS) reports because the two
parties could not reach consensus on a few issues. Dr.
Hurtado explained that the commission had general agreement
on most issues, except on the concept of "right to life."
The president explained that his party supports a right to
life starting at conception.


11. (C) Ms. Guzman concurred with Dr. Hurtado's analysis that
right to life was a dividing issue, but added that homosexual
rights also separated the MAS and PODEMOS. Guzman explained
that the MAS supports Bolivia's current concept of right to
life which bans abortion, but does not establish conception
as the standard for life. Guzman stated that PODEMOS opposes
homosexual rights, while the MAS simply wants to incorporate
them into the new constitution to reflect reality, that
homosexuals exist within Bolivia society. She went on to
state the MAS does not have a "homosexual agenda" (for
example the promotion of gay marriage),only that the party
believes that discrimination against homosexuals must not be
tolerated.

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Views on Moving the Capital to Sucre
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12. (C) Dr. Hurtado, a native of Sucre and a strong supporter
of moving the executive and legislative branch to his home
town, explained the arguments behind moving the capital from
La Paz. Hurtado first outlined the standard arguments for
re-establishing Sucre as the seat of the three branches of
government. Hurtado explained that Sucre is seen as a more
neutral location between the two mega-regions of the country
(the lowland east and the altiplano west) that are currently
in dispute. He mentioned that locating the capital closer to
the emerging economic engine of Tarija is both logical and
could reduce tensions between Tarija and the central
government. He explained the usual historical claim that La
Paz gained the capital due to the battle between liberals and
conservatives at the turn of the last century. Using a twist
of purely Bolivian logic, Hurtado argued that retaining the
capital in La Paz would render illegitimate Bolivia's claim
for access to the Pacific Ocean from Chile. Hurtado
explained that if La Paz was allowed to retain the capital
which it obtained via force, then Bolivia would no longer
have a moral claim to regain its access to the sea which
Chile also acquired through force.

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Communitarian Justice
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13. (C) Both Dr. Hurtado and Ms. Guzman opined on the
hot-button issue of communitarian justice. Hurtado, a
lawyer, towed his party's line that communitarian justice as
a parallel form of justice (the MAS proposal) is simply an
incoherent proposal. Hurtado offered that he would not
oppose communitarian justice as a form of arbitration for
small disputes (misdemeanors) within indigenous communities
as it is currently practiced. Guzman, noting communitarian
justice already exists in some communities, put forward
essentially the same idea.

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Comment ) The Political Future of these Four Delegates
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14. (C) The CA consists of 255 delegates, many of whom have
political aspirations beyond the CA. Of the four delegates,
Emboff spoke with from July 18-24, Gamal Serhan Jaldin was
the most politically savvy with a possible future in politics
after the CA. Serhan appears to be forming the political
ties required for a run at the mayorship of Cochabamba.
Serhan, whose father immigrated to Bolivia from Lebanon, may
face some difficulties if voters see him as an outsider and
not "authentically Bolivian." That said, he was successfully
elected to the CA. Duran never overtly stated his political
aspirations, but clearly is trying to make a name for himself
(at least) in his native Yungas region. His request for help
launching a radio station indicates he has political goals
beyond the CA. Dr. Jaime Hurtado Poveda, a lawyer by
training and leader in the Sucre bar association, did not
express (or imply) much interest in pursuing politics beyond
the CA. Loyola Viuda de Guzman indicated she wanted to
return to her life's work advocating on behalf of the
families of those people who disappeared during Bolivia's
military dictatorships. End Comment.
GOLDBERG