TARIJA LEADERS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT STATE OF AFFAIRS

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001675 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/18/2017 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: TARIJA LEADERS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT STATE OF AFFAIRS Classified By: CDA Kris Urs for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) Tarija political and business leaders expressed pessimism and a growing concern about the state of Bolivian affairs in a June 14 meeting with Emboff. The president of the Tarija Civic Committee, president of the Tarija Chamber of Commerce, and the governor's chief of staff all predicted violence in the eastern half of Bolivia if the Constituent Assembly (CA) does not include departmental autonomy in the proposed new constitution. The three all complained that the central government will not fund projects in opposition-controlled Tarija and agreed that unless the opposition is able to unite nationwide, Evo Morales and the MAS party will continue to tighten its grip on power. End summary. -------------- PESSIMISTIC AND WORRIED -------------- ¶2. (C) On June 14 Emboff met with Tarija Civic Committee President Reynaldo Bayard, Tarija Chamber of Commerce President Julio Kohlberg, and the Tarija governor's Chief of Staff Adrian Oliva Alcazar. All three expressed pessimism and a growing concern about the state of Bolivian affairs and predicted that violence would break out in eastern Bolivia if the CA does not include departmental autonomy in the proposed new constitution. Civic Committee President Bayard said he was in close consultation with pro-autonomy civic committees from other departments and that undoubtedly there will be more public pro-autonomy demonstrations in the coming weeks. Bayard questioned whether Evo Morales realizes that Bolivia may be on the brink of violence. Mr. Oliva lamented the lack of coordination or support from the national government and said the Morales administration "will not approve projects in Tarija because we are not MAS-controlled." Bayard and Kohlberg echoed the sentiment, with Kohlberg adding that "Tarija prospers despite the central government." -------------- UNITED BUT DIVIDED -------------- ¶3. (C) Chief of Staff Oliva said he admires the MAS communication apparatus and that the national government's radio signal now reaches the entire department of Tarija. He lamented the fact that although the opposition is united in its support for departmental autonomy, "personal rivalries keep us divided." (Comment: Tarija Governor Mario Cossio and Mayor Oscar Montes are known rivals. End Comment.) Kohlberg stressed the need for the opposition to get past "personal interests" and unite as one front "for the sake of Bolivia". Reynaldo Bayard said he realized the MAS is using a "divide and conquer strategy" to tighten its grip on power. He added that the old political leadership "like Tuto Quiroga" stands in the way of the emergence of a new opposition leader. -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶4. (C) The Tarija leadership is worried that Evo Morales and the MAS will push through a watered-down version of autonomy, which favors "indigenous" autonomy over "departmental" autonomy, in the CA. Contacts throughout the country have echoed Tarija's concerns about the possibility of violence resulting from the CA's outcome. Bolivia's political opposition, meantime, remains divided and would require a tremendous amount of personal and political will to unite. End Comment. URS