MAS STEAMROLLER CONTINUES DESPITE SETBACK

UNCLAS LA PAZ 001625

SIPDIS

SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON BL
SUBJECT: MAS STEAMROLLER CONTINUES DESPITE SETBACK

REF: A. LA PAZ 1619

B. LA PAZ 436

C. LA PAZ 1085


1. (U) A Constituent Assembly (CA) Directive ruling on June
11 provided a minor setback for the Movement Towards
Socialism's (MAS) new strategy of controlling both the
majority and minority reports issued by the CA's commissions
(reftel A). The MAS' strategy consists of splitting its vote
within the CA's commissions to prevent PODEMOS, the main
opposition party, from issuing minority reports. Under the
strategy, some MAS delegates are directed to vote for the
MAS' primary proposal while others are instructed to vote on
an alternate non-PODEMOS proposal. The directive enforced
the February 14 (reftel B) voting rules agreement which
stipulate that the commissions must issue a report that
receives an absolute majority. The ruling adds that the
report that receives the second highest number of votes will
be considered the minority report. The decision also
clarified that commission delegates must vote on all proposed
reports at the same time. As a result of the directive's
decision, the commission "Vision for the Country" will have
to revote. In a separate decision, the directive agreed to
postpone for the third time, from June 11 to June 21, the
deadline for the commissions to finish their reports.


2. (U) Despite the setback, the MAS is still pursuing its
vote splitting strategy in certain commissions where it can
find enough allied parties. The MAS appears poised to issue
two reports in the Commission on Autonomy. Autonomy is the
most hotly contested political issue in the CA and in the
country as a whole. Bolivia's four eastern or "half moon"
departments continue to pressure the GOB and the CA to
recognize and codify the July 2006 referendum on autonomy
(reftel C). The Autonomy Commission has twenty-four
delegates; the MAS with twelve, PODEMOS with four, and the
remaining eight divided among eight small parties. Three of
the eight small parties are allied with the MAS. MAS
delegate Marcela Revollo proposed a minority proposal, saying
it represents the wishes of the Movimiento Sin Miedo (MSM),a
political party that has no delegate within the CA. The
proposal has the support of at least one other small party
and another MAS delegate. If Revollo's proposal can garner
two to three more votes from the other seven small parties it
could thwart PODEMOS' proposal. Both MAS plans argue for
autonomy for indigenous groups, although Revollo's proposal
argues for a more gradual approach.


3. (SBU) Comment: While PODEMOS may have won the day
regarding the voting rules controversy (reftel A),the MAS
has clearly not abandoned its strategy to claim both the
majority and minority reports out of the commissions.
Presumably, the MAS will use almost any means to persuade
delegates from small parties to sign on to one of its
proposals. Meanwhile, the "half moon" prefects of Beni,
Pando, Santa Cruz, and Tarija have vowed and signed a pact to
defend departmental autonomy (reftel C). The pact calls for
respect for existing departmental borders and
intra-departmental units, a concept the MAS proposals would
violate. Any attempts by the MAS within the Autonomy
Commission (or any other commissions) to dilute the power of
the departments is sure to face stiff opposition. End
Comment.
URS