COCHABAMBA: AN UNEASY CALM

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001068

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017
TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL
SUBJECT: COCHABAMBA: AN UNEASY CALM

REF: A. LA PAZ 859

B. LA PAZ 84

Classified By: Amb. Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) During a April 13 trip to Cochabamba, the Ambassador
met separately with Prefect Manfred Reyes Villa, the
directors of the Private Business Federation, and the
directors of the Civic Committee. All expressed their
concern that violence could again break out when the new
draft constitution is put to a referendum (scheduled for year
end). Reyes Villa told the Ambassador that President Morales
is publicly appearing to work with him and other opposition
prefects, while at the same time campaigning for re-election
and weakening the prefect's power by handing out Venezuelan
checks to mayors (Reftel A). The president of the Cochabamba
Private Business Federation said the organization is being
forced to play an almost purely political role to defend
democracy and a free market economy and predicted Evo Morales
would win re-election. The Civic Committee directors listed
the GOB's "winner take all" mentality and the expansion of
coca cultivation and drug trafficking as the two biggest
problems facing Cochabamba. The committee president said he
feels "difficult times are coming," and retired General
Freddy Vargas, who attended the meeting, added that the armed
forces could be forced to take a stance. End summary.

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PREFECT DETERMINED TO KEEP UP HIS FIGHT
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2. (C) The Ambassador met with opposition Cochabamba
Prefect Manfred Reyes Villa at the burned-out prefectural
offices April 13 (Reftel B). The prefect told the Ambassador
that President Morales is publicly appearing to work with him
and other opposition prefects, while at the same time working
to weaken them. Reyes Villa gave the example of President
Morales handing out Venezuelan checks to mayors (Reftel A).
The prefect said he told mayors from his party to take the
money if offered. When the Ambassador asked if this could
limit Reyes Villa's freedom to criticize Morales, the prefect
acknowledged this was a risk, but, said a larger risk was
losing his mayors to the president's cash politics. Reyes
Villa predicated that indiscriminately handing out checks
will cause Morales problems as mayors and others "bicker over
amounts and how the money is spent" and corruption will
increase. (Note: Several Manfred-aligned mayors received
checks from Morales on April 15. End Note.)


3. (C) Reyes Villa thanked the Ambassador for USAID's offer
to donate computer equipment and office furniture for the
prefectural office reconstruction. He also mentioned that
the Spanish have offered funds for rebuilding. Reyes Villa
said he was in no hurry to reconstruct, as he prefers to
leave the burned-out offices "as a memorial to what happened
in January." He said the GOB was pressuring him to rebuild
quickly, as the burned out building is a black eye for
Morales. Subsequent to their meeting, the Ambassador and
prefect participated in a USAID-sponsored road maintenance
equipment donation ceremony. Both the Ambassador and prefect
highlighted the concrete example of working together in a
productive fashion (versus handing out cash).

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BUSINESS FEDERATION ALL POLITICS
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4. (C) In a meeting with the directors of the Cochabamba
Private Business Federation (EPCBBA),President Rudy Rivera
lamented that the organization is being forced to concentrate
almost exclusively on political issues. Rivera told the
Ambassador that while Cochabamba businessmen would prefer to
focus on creating jobs and wealth, the reality is that they
"are defending bigger issues like democracy and a free market
economy." Without those two things, Rivera said, "we will
have no businesses to worry about." The EPCBBA is developing
a constituent assembly public educational campaign focused on
the benefits of a free market economy. The EPCBBA directors
told the Ambassador that they are worried about renewed
violence in Cochabamba, especially when the new constitution
is put to a referendum. Rivera predicted that if current
political conditions hold, Evo Morales will win re-election.

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CIVIC COMMITTEE BRACING FOR THE WORST
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5. (C) The Ambassador met with Cochabamba Civic Committee
President Oscar Zurita, along with the board of directors
(including retired General Freddy Vargas). President Zurita
remarked that Cochabamba is "the political epicenter of
Bolivia." The Civic Committee directors listed the GOB's
"winner take all" mentality and the expansion of coca
cultivation and drug trafficking as the two biggest problems
facing Cochabamba. Zurita said that Cochabamba is divided
politically, with the Central Union organization supporting
the MAS, and noted that "difficult times are coming" with the
constitutional referendum. General Vargas predicted that the
referendum will "cause a crisis" and "force the armed forces
to take a stance."

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COMMENT
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6. (C) People are going about their daily life in
Cochabamba, but there is much anxiety below the surface, as
evidenced by the Ambassador's meetings. Reyes Villa fears
Morales could make inroads with his checkbook politics.
Cochabamba is literally where Bolivia's wealthier east meets
its poorer west, so it is not without reason that the various
groups are predicting more conflict in the future. Post will
continue to work with the prefects and mayors of Cochabamba
through USAID to support economic development and democracy.
End Comment.
GOLDBERG