COCHABAMBA: AN UNEASY CALM

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001068 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017 TAGS: ECON PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: COCHABAMBA: AN UNEASY CALM REF: A. LA PAZ 859 ¶B. LA PAZ 84 Classified By: Amb. Philip S. Goldberg for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- SUMMARY -------------- ¶1. (C) During a April 13 trip to Cochabamba, the Ambassador met separately with Prefect Manfred Reyes Villa, the directors of the Private Business Federation, and the directors of the Civic Committee. All expressed their concern that violence could again break out when the new draft constitution is put to a referendum (scheduled for year end). Reyes Villa told the Ambassador that President Morales is publicly appearing to work with him and other opposition prefects, while at the same time campaigning for re-election and weakening the prefect's power by handing out Venezuelan checks to mayors (Reftel A). The president of the Cochabamba Private Business Federation said the organization is being forced to play an almost purely political role to defend democracy and a free market economy and predicted Evo Morales would win re-election. The Civic Committee directors listed the GOB's "winner take all" mentality and the expansion of coca cultivation and drug trafficking as the two biggest problems facing Cochabamba. The committee president said he feels "difficult times are coming," and retired General Freddy Vargas, who attended the meeting, added that the armed forces could be forced to take a stance. End summary. -------------- PREFECT DETERMINED TO KEEP UP HIS FIGHT -------------- ¶2. (C) The Ambassador met with opposition Cochabamba Prefect Manfred Reyes Villa at the burned-out prefectural offices April 13 (Reftel B). The prefect told the Ambassador that President Morales is publicly appearing to work with him and other opposition prefects, while at the same time working to weaken them. Reyes Villa gave the example of President Morales handing out Venezuelan checks to mayors (Reftel A). The prefect said he told mayors from his party to take the money if offered. When the Ambassador asked if this could limit Reyes Villa's freedom to criticize Morales, the prefect acknowledged this was a risk, but, said a larger risk was losing his mayors to the president's cash politics. Reyes Villa predicated that indiscriminately handing out checks will cause Morales problems as mayors and others "bicker over amounts and how the money is spent" and corruption will increase. (Note: Several Manfred-aligned mayors received checks from Morales on April 15. End Note.) ¶3. (C) Reyes Villa thanked the Ambassador for USAID's offer to donate computer equipment and office furniture for the prefectural office reconstruction. He also mentioned that the Spanish have offered funds for rebuilding. Reyes Villa said he was in no hurry to reconstruct, as he prefers to leave the burned-out offices "as a memorial to what happened in January." He said the GOB was pressuring him to rebuild quickly, as the burned out building is a black eye for Morales. Subsequent to their meeting, the Ambassador and prefect participated in a USAID-sponsored road maintenance equipment donation ceremony. Both the Ambassador and prefect highlighted the concrete example of working together in a productive fashion (versus handing out cash). -------------- BUSINESS FEDERATION ALL POLITICS -------------- ¶4. (C) In a meeting with the directors of the Cochabamba Private Business Federation (EPCBBA),President Rudy Rivera lamented that the organization is being forced to concentrate almost exclusively on political issues. Rivera told the Ambassador that while Cochabamba businessmen would prefer to focus on creating jobs and wealth, the reality is that they "are defending bigger issues like democracy and a free market economy." Without those two things, Rivera said, "we will have no businesses to worry about." The EPCBBA is developing a constituent assembly public educational campaign focused on the benefits of a free market economy. The EPCBBA directors told the Ambassador that they are worried about renewed violence in Cochabamba, especially when the new constitution is put to a referendum. Rivera predicted that if current political conditions hold, Evo Morales will win re-election. -------------- CIVIC COMMITTEE BRACING FOR THE WORST -------------- ¶5. (C) The Ambassador met with Cochabamba Civic Committee President Oscar Zurita, along with the board of directors (including retired General Freddy Vargas). President Zurita remarked that Cochabamba is "the political epicenter of Bolivia." The Civic Committee directors listed the GOB's "winner take all" mentality and the expansion of coca cultivation and drug trafficking as the two biggest problems facing Cochabamba. Zurita said that Cochabamba is divided politically, with the Central Union organization supporting the MAS, and noted that "difficult times are coming" with the constitutional referendum. General Vargas predicted that the referendum will "cause a crisis" and "force the armed forces to take a stance." -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶6. (C) People are going about their daily life in Cochabamba, but there is much anxiety below the surface, as evidenced by the Ambassador's meetings. Reyes Villa fears Morales could make inroads with his checkbook politics. Cochabamba is literally where Bolivia's wealthier east meets its poorer west, so it is not without reason that the various groups are predicting more conflict in the future. Post will continue to work with the prefects and mayors of Cochabamba through USAID to support economic development and democracy. End Comment. GOLDBERG