CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: A LONG "TO DO" LIST

C O N F I D E N T I A L LA PAZ 001060 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/17/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL BL SUBJECT: CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY: A LONG "TO DO" LIST Classified By: Ecopol Counselor Andrew Erickson for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (SBU) Bolivia's Constituent Assembly (CA) wrapped up its national tour over the weekend of April 14-15 and will resume work in commissions April 16. Press reports estimate that the new constitution may have as many as 300 articles (the current constitution has 234),and that the Assembly has received over 3,000 proposals. The commissions have until May 15 to digest these proposals and present their reports to the CA plenary. ¶2. (SBU) From May 15 through June 15, the plenary is scheduled to debate the commissions' proposals. One press article estimated that if debate on each article lasts six hours (a low estimate for controversial provisions),debate will run for 1,800 hours. Assuming eight hour workdays, the Assembly would need 225 business days to complete its preliminary debate. It has only 30. ¶3. (C) Comment: Despite persistent commentary by CA delegates that they will need more time to complete their mandate, MAS-affiliated social sectors have stated their objections to an extension. Over the weekend, CA President Silvia Lazarte announced that the Assembly will meet its August 6 deadline, no matter how difficult. Podemos leader and former Bolivian President Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga expressed doubt at an April 16 lunch with the Ambassador that the Constituent Assembly would be able to complete its work by August 6. Quiroga reported that Podemos constituents have been approached by their MAS counterparts requesting Podemos to join them in asking for a four month extension of the deadline. The MAS apparently doesn't want to seek an extension by itself, he said. Given the CA's track record to date, the CA's goal of finishing its work by August 6 seems out of reach. End comment. GOLDBERG