A LOOK BACK: OBASANJO REVIEWS HIS PRESIDENCY WITH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 LAGOS 000609 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM KPKO NI SUBJECT: A LOOK BACK: OBASANJO REVIEWS HIS PRESIDENCY WITH CONGRESSMAN PAYNE REF: ABUJA 1876 Classified By: Acting Consul General Donald McConnell for reasons 1.4 ( B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: In an August 21 meeting with HIRC Africa Subcommittee Chair Donald Payne, former President Olusegun Obasanjo said he would attend former President Clinton's Global Institute from September 26-28, dates which coincide with the second week of plenary sessions of the U.N. General Assembly. Obasanjo Obasanjo told the Congressman about the difficult decisions he encountered in arranging his own succession, and how other leaders, namely Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe and Guinea's Lansana Conte, have thus far not heeded his entreaties to do likewise. While not discussing Nigeria's own deeply flawed election, Obasanjo expressed his support for elections as a way for a government to obtain legitimacy. Obasanjo considered the situation in southern Sudan graver even than Darfur, and said any attempt to deploy Nigerian peacekeepers in Somalia would depend0 on funding. Turning to the Niger Delta, Obasanjo clung to his insistence the crisis was solely a product of criminality. End summary. -------------- A Visit to Obasanjo's Ota Farm -------------- ¶2. (U) On August 21 Congressman Donald Payne visited former President Olusegun Obasanjo's Ota farm with the Acting Consul General, Congressional Research Service Professional Staff Member Ted Dagne, and Poloff. With former President Obasanjo were Nigerian Ambassador to the U.S. George Obiozor and Personal Assistant Adeola Ojekunle. The farm is about an hour and a half drive away from Lagos, and while the estate is sizable Obasanjo's home did not appear ostentatious. Obasanjo, delighted to see a familiar face, greeted Congressman Payne warmly and was effusive and hospitable throughout the meeting. Obasanjo reminisced about important decisions made during his presidency and reviewed some of Africa's trouble spots. During his review, Obasanjo rhetorically asked the Congressman if he believed "we did the right thing", adding that "people like me are too directly involved to be objective". -------------- Obasanjo's Activities Since Leaving -------------- ¶3. (C) Obasanjo told Congressmann Payne that since leaving Aso Rock he had occupied himself with various activities. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) had appointed him Chairman of its Board of Trustees, so occasionally he travels to Abuja to attend the party caucus. Obasanjo had recently visited Ghana to meet his "good friend John Kufuor", flown to the U.S. for a brief summer sojourn, and made a short trip to Tanzania for undisclosed reasons. President Umaru Yar'Adua has called him occasionally, Obasanjo added, telling Payne that two or three weeks after the May 29 inauguration Yar'Adua wanted to visit Ota but "I told him it was too early". However, Obasanjo insisted despite his special access he has not interfered in presidential affairs, claiming he "never has occasion to initiate anything". -------------- -------------- Obasanjo Talks About Succession in Nigeria and Ghana -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) When Congressman Payne broached the subject of Obasanjo becoming a senior statesman for the African Union, Obasanjo sidestepped the issue and proceeded to discuss his own succession. "My brother in Ghana (Kufuor) now has the same problem I had here", Obasanjo reflected. "Here we had twelve governors", Obasanjo stated as he glanced briefly at Obiozor for confirmation, and "six or seven non-governors who all wanted to be President". "It was partly by an act of God we pulled the succession off", Obasanjo commented, adding the key to choosing a successor was timing. In Obasanjo's opinion, selecting a successor too early would allow other contenders to conspire, but being tardy was also a mistake. (Note: Obasanjo kept his selection of Yar'Adua a secret until about two weeks before the PDP national convention. End LAGOS 00000609 002 OF 004 note) Kufuor said Ghana had a similar situation as all his ministers wanted to contest for the presidency, and according to Obasanjo, Kufuor asked him for advice on how to choose a successor. "While Kufuor had narrowed the succession to two candidates, he would not tell me whom he had chosen", Obasanjo chuckled. -------------- Elections in Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Togo -------------- ¶5. (C) Despite the widespread controversy over Nigeria's own April elections, Obasanjo stressed the importance of elections to legitimize leaders. It was important the elections in Sierra Leone succeeded, Obasanjo noted, and while the elections in Liberia were "not perfect" they did represent progress. Congressman Payne thanked Obasanjo for taking in former Liberian leader Charles Taylor when no one else was willing. In Togo, Obasanjo said he instructed President Faure Eyadema to hold an election to replace his father despite his initial reluctance and requests by Libyan and Egyptian envoys not to intervene. When Payne queried why Libya and Egypt had been so interested in Togo, Obasanjo noted succinctly it was because both countries' leaders also wanted their sons to succeed them. After Obasanjo's view prevailed, Eyadema later thanked him; because of Obasanjo's insistence Eyadema could now proudly proclaim to be an "elected president", Obasanjo said with a hearty laugh. -------------- Succession in Zimbabwe and Guinea -------------- ¶6. (C) However Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe had frustrated him when he broached the issue of succession, Obasanjo said Mugabe gave him the same argument he had given five years ago, that no successor is ready to take over. Obasanjo related that when he approached Guinea President Lansana Conte, regarding his successor saying Conte should beware of the might of his enemies, Conte retorted "Whose might? This is not Nigeria", Obasanjo laughed. Fortunately, Obasanjo said he asked former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida to intervene with Conte, and Babangida "did a good job". -------------- Assessment of Cote d'Ivoire, DROC and Sudan -------------- ¶7. (C) Payne again suggested these leaders would listen to Obasanjo's guidance on the succession issue, but this time Obasanjo brushed aside the suggestion, saying he could only "talk to those who want to listen". Obasanjo was hopeful about recent events in Cote d'Ivoire. As to the Democratic Republic of Congo, he noted the collapse of the nation's infrastructure. He once told DROC President Joseph Kabila how in 1960 he traveled across the DROC by train and Kabila remarked that such a feat would be impossible today, Obasanjo told the Congressman. ¶8. (C) The Darfur crisis was a consequence of the problems in southern Sudan, Obasanjo said, adding that he believed south Sudan would split off following the plebiscite. Obasanjo predicted Darfur would get worse after secession, noting despite all the attention to Darfur the graver situation was in the south Sudan. -------------- --- Nigerian Peacekeepers in Somalia Possible, If... -------------- --- ¶9. (C) Obasanjo asked Congressman Payne his assessment of Somalia. Congressman Payne said he had appealed to former Somalia Foreign Minister Ismail Mahmoud Hurre to include the moderate wing of the Islamic courts into the government. Ismail agreed with the caveat he would exclude extremists, and Ismail would determine who was acceptable. Somalia's Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has been equally reluctant to accept the Islamists, Payne noted. Obasanjo asked if it was possible to put pressure on Somalia through Ethiopia, but the Congressman replied given the bitter LAGOS 00000609 003 OF 004 history between the two countries he thought it preferable to attempt to obtain a consensus among a group of countries to pressure Ismail. Payne noted removing Ethiopian soldiers was a priority, and asked Obasanjo about the idea of introducing Nigerian peacekeepers to Somalia. While Obasanjo did not dismiss the notion, he reflected the problem was finding financial support for the troops, as the African Union could not support them. -------------- -------------- Face-saving Compromise Needed to Resolve Disputes -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) Obasanjo thought in Western Sahara they could arrive at a face-saving compromise, but did not discuss specifics. Obasanjo suggested a similar approach in the Middle East and criticized U.S. diplomacy, saying "not talking to certain parties may be politically understandable but is not sustainable". Obasanjo did not support Ethiopian President Meles's stance in the border dispute with Eritrea, comparing the dispute with a similar situation Nigeria had with Cameroon over the Bakassi peninsula, a dispute which was eventually resolved in favor of Cameroon. -------------- Niger Delta an "Issue of Criminality" -------------- ¶11. (C) Obasanjo launched into a long discourse on one of his major policy failures, the Niger Delta crisis. Appearing irritated for the first time, Obasanjo contended to the Congressman the Niger Delta crisis was purely the result of criminality and there was no genuine political or social agitation involved. The question, Obasanjo posed, was how to treat criminality, since the militants had become so used to large quantities of easy money. Obasanjo told the Congressman that he asked a militant why he was involved in kidnapping and other criminal activities. When the militant replied he could make up to 500,000 USD in one day, Obasanjo retorted that "on a very good day you could make that, but some other day you are dead". ¶12. (C) Obasanjo mused about work programs as a possible palliative for the Delta, but noted that when an unnamed Governor purchased militants' weapons, the militants were able to purchase two new weapons for every one they sold, Obasanjo noted. Unfortunately, the armed forces, particularly the navy, were unable to do little as they were compromised, Obasanjo noted. ¶13. (U) Obasanjo mentioned he would travel to the United States on September 26-28 to attend former President Clinton's Global Institute. Payne invited Obasanjo to attend a September 28 session with his Africa brain trust. In closing, Obasanjo thanked the Congressman for his support, regretting that he somehow failed to cultivate the same number of friends in Congress as he had in the Executive branch. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶14. (C) What Obasanjo says remains important, though given his reputation for dissembling it remains to be seen where his true sentiments lie on some of the topics broached. Clearly he prides himself on his role in engineering Nigeria's widely criticized April election, and believes not only that it provided his successor with a claim to legitimacy, but that other African nations should follow Nigeria's lead. Obasanjo's refusal to acknowledge the legitimate concerns of the Niger Delta, which exacerbated the crisis, contrasts with Yar'Adua's current attempts to engage the militants. While Obasanjo has seemingly declined to take on the role of elder statesman in Africa, it is clear he intends to remain actively engaged, as his announcement that he will be in the United States on the same dates as the U.N. General Assembly shows. ¶15. (U) Congressman Payne cleared this cable. LAGOS 00000609 004 OF 004 MCCONNELL