OSHIOMHOLE DISCUSSES TRIBUNAL, ECONOMICS, YAR'ADUA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000601 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DS/IP/AF, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/OSAC OSLO FOR HELENA SCHRADER DOE FOR GPERSON, CAROLYN GAY TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS, SRENENDER, DFIELDS COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS STATE PASS USTR FOR ASST USTR FLISER STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART STATE PASS TDA FOR NCABOT STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER NI SUBJECT: OSHIOMHOLE DISCUSSES TRIBUNAL, ECONOMICS, YAR'ADUA REF: A. LAGOS 481 ¶B. ABUJA 1793 ¶C. ABUJA 1342 Classified By: Acting Consul General Donald McConnell for reasons 1.4 ( B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Adams Oshiomhole was granted access to voting materials by the Edo State Election Tribunal; he expressed interest in hiring foreign forensic analysts to examine the ballots to prepare his case. Oshiomhole predicted the Tribunal would decide his claim to have won the April gubernatorial election by November or December. Oshiomhole continues to receive threats of harm, but believes himself protected by supporters with whom he is surrounded daily. End Summary. -------------- Expect Tribunal Ruling November/December 2007 -------------- ¶2. (C) The Edo State Election Tribunal has rejected four procedural/jurisdictional objections raised by the People's Democratic Party (PDP) and Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) on the case brought forward by Action Congress gubernatorial candidate Adams Oshiomhole. In one instance the court protected Oshiomhole's right to present his case in front of the Tribunal. In another, Justice Olabanji Orilonishe, Chairman of the Tribunal, said the day of "technicalities" was over aQ that the merits of each case, not technicalities, would determine the outcome. The Tribunal's most recent ruling in August granted Oshiomhole access to INEC voting materials and ballots. Oshiomhole thought the Tribunal hearing on the substance of his case would begin in late September and a ruling would be given in November or December. One of Oshiomhole's confidants interpreted the Court's rejections of the PDP/INEC objections to Oshiomhole's case as a sign that the Tribunal's judges had refused the bribes offered to them by the PDP (Ref A). -------------- Oshiomhole Seeks Experts to Analyze Ballots -------------- ¶3. (SBU) On August 26, Oshiomhole told Poloff he was interested in hiring foreign forensic experts to run biometric tests on ballot fingerprint marks. He indicated that he had already contacted Chinese experts who could do the job but feared they would be expensive, and asked Poloff for help in locating U.S. experts. -------------- Oshiomhole Continues to Receive Threats -------------- ¶4. (C) Oshiomhole said prior to the April elections, the PDP offered him a ministerial position with the Federal Government and offered to "reimburse" his campaign "expenses." Ever since he refused these offers and opposed the PDP, Oshiomhole has received threats in person, via text message and over the phone. Oshiomhole did not seem concerned about his safety, commenting that he is always surrounded in Benin City by supportive crowds. He predicted his supporters would come out in force to fill Benin City the day of the final hearing to prevent PDP attacks. Oshiomhole thought it likely he would win at the Tribunal level, but that the PDP would appeal to the Court of Appeals, the last court to hear governorship challenges. ¶5. (C) Reflecting on the elections, Oshiomhole held President Obasanjo responsible for controlling the 2007 LAGOS 00000601 002 OF 002 election rigging machinery in Edo State. Obasanjo denied Oshiomhole the governorship because Oshiomhole had challenged Obasanjo on many labor issues during his tenure as President of the Nigeria Labor Congress and because of his fury over the loss of the governorships in Lagos and Imo states, Oshiomhole speculated. Obasanjo was warned against rigging the Edo State elections by both the Chairman of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC),Nuhu Ribadu, and the Minister of Abuja Federal Capital Territory, Nasir el-Rufai, according to Oshiomhole. -------------- CBN Economic Policy Worthless -------------- ¶6. (C) Professor Chukwuma Soludo, Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN),is a smart man at protecting his own interests but his new economic policy (Ref B),particularly the naira re-denomination, is worthless, Oshiomhole said. (Note: The naira re-denomination policy was suspended on August 27 by the President, although the CBN will continue its other economic policy reforms. End Note.) Oshiomhole speculated naira re-denomination would do little for the national economy other than lead to inflation. He skeptically commented there were likely huge pre-approved contracts for naira and kobo printers. Oshiomhole also criticized the new economic policy of paying state governments in U.S. dollars, which he said would benefit banks through increased transaction costs and open the Nigerian economy to business transactions in foreign currency. -------------- --- Difficult to Predict Yar'adua's Leadership Style -------------- --- ¶7. (C) Oshiomhole could not predict President Yar'adua's leadership style, but thought his history, which he called "radical," boded well for his term in office. Oshiomhole said Yar'adua has a quiet nature and not all that he does is well publicized. For example, Oshiomhole lauded the President for asking the Minister of Finance to match government contracts with the federal budget; this enabled the Ministry to discover and end those contracts not already identified in the budget. Similarly, the June labor strike (Ref C),despite its negotiation faults, was resolved in a way that both sides could accept, he commented. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) That the Tribunal granted Oshiomhole access to the election materials is just one of many necessary steps toward proving his case. Nonetheless Oshiomhole had genuinely strong popular support in the April 2007 elections and is likely to be bringing one of the strongest cases against the PDP of all the opposition gubernatorial candidates. As Oshiomhole's remarks reflect, while the Tribunal may produce a relatively speedy result, the process of bringing a challenge to the rigged elections is expensive and time consuming. End Comment. MCCONNELL