VP JONATHAN MEETS MILITANT & COMMUNITY LEADERS IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000485 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DS/IP/AF, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/OSAC WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON OSLO FOR HELENA SCHRADER DOE FOR GPERSON, CAROLYN GAY TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS, SRENENDER, DFIELDS COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS STATE PASS USTR FOR ASST USTR FLISER STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART STATE PASS TDA FOR NCABOT STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/02/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER NI SUBJECT: VP JONATHAN MEETS MILITANT & COMMUNITY LEADERS IN DELTA REF: LAGOS 310 LAGOS 00000485 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Consul Alan B. C. Latimer for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: On June 28, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan visited the Gbaramatu riverine community in Delta State and discussed ways forward with militant and traditional leaders. An Ijaw youth leader from Delta State offered prescriptive efforts the government could take to bring peace to the region through "rehabilitating" militant youths, offering them skills acquisition, and then employment opportunities. However, another contact warned that despite government efforts to address the militant problem, cultist groups primarily based in Rivers State would likely continue their criminal activities unless they were addressed separately. President Yar'Adua and Jonathan's focus on the Niger Delta may bode well for the region if these initial activities are followed by concrete actions. End Summary. -------------- -------------- VP Jonathan Visits Delta; Meets Militant & Ijaw Leaders -------------- -------------- ¶2. (U) On June 28, one month after being sworn into office, Vice President Goodluck Jonathan visited communities in the creeks of Delta State in Nigeria's oil-rich Niger Delta. Jonathan visited the Gbaramatu Kingdom, including Okerenkoko town and the traditional headquarters of the Kingdom in Oporoza, Delta State. During his visit, Jonathan spoke to the public and met with youths and traditional rulers. ¶3. (C) Sheriff Mulade, President of the Gbaramatu Youth Council (GYC) told Poloff that Jonathan, early in the evening on June 28, visited Camp 5, which borders Okerenkoko, and is known to be run by militant leader Tom Polo. Jonathan held a closed door meeting with Polo, militant leader Dokubo Asari, eminent Ijaw Chief and nationalist E. K. Clarke, and George Timinimi, Chairman of the newly established Delta Waterways Security Committee. Mulade was also present during this meeting and told Poloff the militant and community leaders agreed to hold a meeting around July 6 to discuss whether they would announce a nationwide ceasefire to enable the federal government to take further actions in the Niger Delta. Mulade was confident these militant leaders would extend the ceasefire. He thought any individuals who chose to disobey the ceasefire (i.e. criminal groups/leaders) would be killed. Mulade said this tactic had been used by militants in 2004 after the 2003 elections and that 24 individuals had been killed and/or turned over to government for failing to adhere to the ceasefire. ¶4. (C) Comment: The July 6 ceasefire meeting Mulade mentioned was described to be all-inclusive of militant leaders. However, Mulade did not comment on fractures or power struggles within militant groups and, if these still exist, whether or not they would be addressed. Also, there was no indication that criminal groups were invited to attend the July 6 meeting; reigning-in or gaining control over these individuals could prove an arduous task. Enc Comment. -------------- -------------- LAGOS 00000485 002.2 OF 003 Ways Forward: Ceasefire, Youth Reorientation, Development -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Following Jonathan's visit to Delta State, Mulade issued a statement on behalf of the Gbaramatu Youth Council thanking the Vice President for his visit to the creeks. Mulade recommended Jonathan next visit Bayelsa and Rivers states to further appeal to the region's indigenes and to maintain consistent dialogue. Beginning dialogue now would help give the Federal Government time to work out the "modalities of addressing Niger Delta issues," Mulade commented. Furthermore, he recommended Jonathan visit the region on a quarterly basis to secure and maintain peace in this vital region. Mulade requested Niger Delta youths drop their arms and give peace a chance to enable "genuine development." Since the Vice President, Chief of Defense Staff, and Chairman of the NDDC are all Ijaw and hail from this region, now is the time for the Ijaw and Niger Delta indigenes to witness change in the Niger Delta, he averred. ¶6. (C) Mulade told Poloff the government has not provided categorical suggestions on how to achieve peace in the Niger Delta, but it does seem to have "new ideas" and he was optimistic youths would give government a chance to prove itself. Mulade thought youth rehabilitation was a three-step process and an integral part of securing peace in the region. First, government would need to help youths change their orientation and thinking in order to adopt principles of non-violence and respect. This could be done through youth summits or workshops, each attended by approximately 100 militant youth leaders who could then share their understanding with their subordinates. Youths would then become more receptive to government efforts, which at this point would entail skills acquisition. Lastly, employment opportunities would need to be made available to youths to allow them to re-integrate into society. ¶7. (C) According to Mulade, the initial reorientation of youths would take approximately two to three months. If government began to plan basic development projects, such as road building and improved access to water, newly trained youths could be hired to do the work. Therefore, rehabilitated youth could be incorporated into development efforts throughout the Niger Delta, Mulade reasoned. -------------- - Rivers State Cults: Outside Militants' Purview -------------- - ¶8. (C) Dimieari Von Kemedi, Program Head of the NGO Our Niger Delta, told Poloff on June 29 that he assessed the general mood in the Niger Delta to be optimistic and that many indigenes thought the government should be given the opportunity to prove themselves. However, he commented that Rivers State is different from Delta and Bayelsa because there are many cultist groups operating there. Unlike militants, Kemedi described cultist groups as gangs/criminal groups who are not champions of resource control but whose "services" could be purchased for political or personal gain. Two of the most well-known cultist leaders are Soboma George and Ateke Tom (Ref A). Soboma George was known to be aligned LAGOS 00000485 003.2 OF 003 with former Rivers Governor Peter Odili, who supposedly used George to "go after" Ateke Tom and others. ¶9. (C) Kemedi told Poloff that political solutions would not address cultist groups in Rivers State, but he suggested the state and federal government could reach out to these groups and, one day, they may become less criminal. Kemedi warned that these groups operate across state boundaries (particularly between Rivers and Bayelsa states),inferring that any government action would need to be done in conjunction with both states. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶10. (C) The Vice President's recent visit to Delta State appears to be welcomed by the region. This high level engagement sends an early signal to Niger Delta indigenes that the new administration is concerned with the region and is willing to use carrots instead of sticks to find a peaceful resolution. While government appears to be proceeding carefully, it will need to begin taking more concrete steps within a "reasonable" amount of time, which may be outlined by militants on July 6, to show it is committed to more than lip service. Kemedi's comment that assuaging cultist groups may require a different approach from militants makes sense; however, it is unclear what, if anything, could lead them to give up their life of criminality and the riches it affords. End Comment. LATIMER