YAR'ADUA & LABOR RELATIONS MAY IMPROVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000480

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SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DS/IP/AF, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/OSAC
WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON
DOE FOR GPERSON, CAROLYN GAY
LABOR FOR SUDHA HALEY
TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS, SRENENDER, DFIELDS
COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS
STATE PASS USTR FOR ASST USTR FLISER
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD
STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART
STATE PASS TDA FOR NCABOT
STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER
STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/28/2017
TAGS: ELAB PGOV PHUM PTER KDEM NI
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA & LABOR RELATIONS MAY IMPROVE

REF: A. ABUJA 1342


B. ABUJA 1366

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Classified By: Consul Alan B. C. Latimer for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D)


1. (C) Summary: It was not until President Yar'Adua directly
negotiated with the NLC and TUC labor leaders in a
closed-door session that the 2007 national labor strike was
resolved, according to Denja Yaqub, Assistant Secretary to
the Nigeria Labor Congress (NLC). Yar'Adua reportedly told
the labor leaders he had not received their 14-day ultimatum
letter, suggesting his advisors, including Secretary to the
Government of the Federation, Babagana Kingibe, may have
tried to distance the President from the strike. However,
given Yar'Adua's favorable reception of the labor leaders and
his willingness to negotiate and settle the issues, our labor
contacts look forward to improved relations with Aso Rock and
predict the next labor dispute will reveal Yar'Adua's true
colors. End Summary.

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Yar'Adua & Labor: Strike Negotiations &
Discussion on Development & Transparency
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2. (C) Denja Yaqub, Assistant Secretary to the Nigeria Labor
Congress (NLC) and confidant to former NLC President Adams
Oshiomole, told Poloff on June 26, that negotiations between
labor and the GON did not successfully begin until Oshiomole
personally called President Yar'Adua on June 22. Yar'Adua
purportedly apologized for not answering the calls of NLC
President Abdulwaheed Omar or Trade Union Congress (TUC)
President Peter Esele. According to Yaqub, Yar'Adua invited
Esele, Omar and Oshiomole to a closed door meeting later that
night. During this meeting, Yar'Adua confided to the group
that he had never received the 14-day ultimatum letter sent
to him by the NLC and TUC. Yaqub surmised Obasanjo's
cronies, some of whom have joined Yar'Adua's government, may
have withheld the letter. Supporting this hypothesis, Yaqub
said Babagana Kingibe, Secretary to the Government of the
Federation (SGF),exacerbated the situation as he "didn't
want negotiations" even though he served as the government's
lead negotiator during unofficial meetings earlier in the
week.


3. (C) Yar'Adua said he would send the labor unions a letter
the next day (June 23) conceding three of the four demands
which had already been reached during unofficial meetings
(Ref A) but "pleaded" that labor accept the 70 naira petrol
price. Yar'Adua requested this to show the public the GON
was not "boxed in" by labor and forced to submit
unconditionally to all of their demands. Yar'Adua and the
labor leaders also discussed the creation of a committee
which would include government, labor and other stakeholders
to consider fuel pricing. While Yaqub thought this would
take the place of the Petroleum Product Pricing Regulatory
Agency, this was never explicitly stated during the meeting.


4. (C) Yaqub said Yar'Adua also discussed the creation of
another committee which would address problems in the Niger
Delta, including oil production, state refinery sales,

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militancy and security. To be effective, this committee
would need to include militants and community members from
the Niger Delta, Yaqub commented. Vice President Goodluck
Jonathan, who hails from Bayelsa State, a core oil producing
state, may have enough contacts to successfully include the
"real activists," speculated Yaqub. (Comment: It remains to
be seen whether these two committees actualize and become
more than lip service. Similarly, there has been no
indication what relationship would exist between Yar'Adua's
proposed Niger Delta Committee and former President
Obasanjo's "Niger Delta Master Plan," which has not yet been
presented. End Comment.)


5. (C) During this closed-door meeting with Yar'Adua, labor
also voiced concern over the need for better roads and
railways, for the transport of oil and other goods. Yar'Adua
responded that the World Bank (WB) has provided Nigeria funds
with which to address these issues. Yaqub thought this was
"laughable" because he thought any WB funding already
received has been "diverted." According to Yaqub, the labor
leaders also requested Yar'Adua to publicly announce the
balance of public funds his administration inherited.

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Positive Outlook on Labor-Government Relations
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6. (C) Yaqub predicted President Yar'Adua would be more
willing to work with labor than the "heartless" former
President, Olusegun Obasanjo. Yaqub thought Yar'Adua
understood labor's position, evidenced by his willingness to
meet with the labor leaders late in the evening on June 22,
and was hopeful Yar'Adua would be willing to meet labor in
the future. During the June 22 meeting, Yar'Adua purportedly
told the labor leaders he had never received their 14-day
ultimatum letter and, therefore, had not responded. Yaqub
commented government's approach to future labor relations
would expose his true position towards and willingness to
work with labor.

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Strike Not Political for Unions But LASCO
Supported Asari & Yar'Adua's Resignation
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7. (C) When labor issued the 14-day ultimatum, the primary
goal was to lower the VAT and price of petrol, Yaqub said.
Likewise, Yaqub did not think the GON intended to seek
political legitimacy by gaining the "upper hand" as former
administrations would have done. Yar'Adua's government did
not seize the opportunity to respond to the 14 day ultimatum
or provide labor an official invitation to negotiate. Prior
to the meeting with Yar'Adua, there was no formal
correspondence between government and the unions, which Yaqub
viewed as a lost opportunity on the side of government. That
said, he could not discount that some labor leaders may have
had hopes that the strike would take on political undertones.


8. (C) Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF) leader
Dokubo Asari requested to join a Labor and Civil Society
Organization (LASCO) pre-strike meeting in Lagos; Yaqub told

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Asari he should not attend because his participation would
send the "wrong signal" to the international community, GON,
and Nigerian public. However, Yaqub confided a few LASCO
members wanted Asari to support the strike to add more
political perspective. Some members of LASCO wanted to use
the strike to demand Yar'Adua's resignation, he said.

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Comment
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9. (C) While Yaqub viewed the strike as labor-centric, it is
possible other individuals within labor saw it as an
opportunity to challenge Yar'Adua's new Administration. It
appears some members of civil society viewed the strike as an
opportunity to test Yar'Adua's legitimacy. Many media
sources related the strike to political issues and viewed
government's response as indicative of the administration's
leanings. If Yaqub's suggestion that Yar'Adua was prevented
from seeing the ultimatum letter and participating in
negotiations has some validity, it is unclear whether this
will be the norm within the Administration or whether it is a
symptom of a young and not-yet defined Presidency. End
Comment.
LATIMER