YAR'ADUA & LABOR RELATIONS MAY IMPROVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000480 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DS/IP/AF, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/OSAC WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON DOE FOR GPERSON, CAROLYN GAY LABOR FOR SUDHA HALEY TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS, SRENENDER, DFIELDS COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS STATE PASS USTR FOR ASST USTR FLISER STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART STATE PASS TDA FOR NCABOT STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/28/2017 TAGS: ELAB PGOV PHUM PTER KDEM NI SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA & LABOR RELATIONS MAY IMPROVE REF: A. ABUJA 1342 ¶B. ABUJA 1366 LAGOS 00000480 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Consul Alan B. C. Latimer for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D) ¶1. (C) Summary: It was not until President Yar'Adua directly negotiated with the NLC and TUC labor leaders in a closed-door session that the 2007 national labor strike was resolved, according to Denja Yaqub, Assistant Secretary to the Nigeria Labor Congress (NLC). Yar'Adua reportedly told the labor leaders he had not received their 14-day ultimatum letter, suggesting his advisors, including Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Babagana Kingibe, may have tried to distance the President from the strike. However, given Yar'Adua's favorable reception of the labor leaders and his willingness to negotiate and settle the issues, our labor contacts look forward to improved relations with Aso Rock and predict the next labor dispute will reveal Yar'Adua's true colors. End Summary. -------------- Yar'Adua & Labor: Strike Negotiations & Discussion on Development & Transparency -------------- ¶2. (C) Denja Yaqub, Assistant Secretary to the Nigeria Labor Congress (NLC) and confidant to former NLC President Adams Oshiomole, told Poloff on June 26, that negotiations between labor and the GON did not successfully begin until Oshiomole personally called President Yar'Adua on June 22. Yar'Adua purportedly apologized for not answering the calls of NLC President Abdulwaheed Omar or Trade Union Congress (TUC) President Peter Esele. According to Yaqub, Yar'Adua invited Esele, Omar and Oshiomole to a closed door meeting later that night. During this meeting, Yar'Adua confided to the group that he had never received the 14-day ultimatum letter sent to him by the NLC and TUC. Yaqub surmised Obasanjo's cronies, some of whom have joined Yar'Adua's government, may have withheld the letter. Supporting this hypothesis, Yaqub said Babagana Kingibe, Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF),exacerbated the situation as he "didn't want negotiations" even though he served as the government's lead negotiator during unofficial meetings earlier in the week. ¶3. (C) Yar'Adua said he would send the labor unions a letter the next day (June 23) conceding three of the four demands which had already been reached during unofficial meetings (Ref A) but "pleaded" that labor accept the 70 naira petrol price. Yar'Adua requested this to show the public the GON was not "boxed in" by labor and forced to submit unconditionally to all of their demands. Yar'Adua and the labor leaders also discussed the creation of a committee which would include government, labor and other stakeholders to consider fuel pricing. While Yaqub thought this would take the place of the Petroleum Product Pricing Regulatory Agency, this was never explicitly stated during the meeting. ¶4. (C) Yaqub said Yar'Adua also discussed the creation of another committee which would address problems in the Niger Delta, including oil production, state refinery sales, LAGOS 00000480 002.2 OF 003 militancy and security. To be effective, this committee would need to include militants and community members from the Niger Delta, Yaqub commented. Vice President Goodluck Jonathan, who hails from Bayelsa State, a core oil producing state, may have enough contacts to successfully include the "real activists," speculated Yaqub. (Comment: It remains to be seen whether these two committees actualize and become more than lip service. Similarly, there has been no indication what relationship would exist between Yar'Adua's proposed Niger Delta Committee and former President Obasanjo's "Niger Delta Master Plan," which has not yet been presented. End Comment.) ¶5. (C) During this closed-door meeting with Yar'Adua, labor also voiced concern over the need for better roads and railways, for the transport of oil and other goods. Yar'Adua responded that the World Bank (WB) has provided Nigeria funds with which to address these issues. Yaqub thought this was "laughable" because he thought any WB funding already received has been "diverted." According to Yaqub, the labor leaders also requested Yar'Adua to publicly announce the balance of public funds his administration inherited. -------------- - Positive Outlook on Labor-Government Relations -------------- - ¶6. (C) Yaqub predicted President Yar'Adua would be more willing to work with labor than the "heartless" former President, Olusegun Obasanjo. Yaqub thought Yar'Adua understood labor's position, evidenced by his willingness to meet with the labor leaders late in the evening on June 22, and was hopeful Yar'Adua would be willing to meet labor in the future. During the June 22 meeting, Yar'Adua purportedly told the labor leaders he had never received their 14-day ultimatum letter and, therefore, had not responded. Yaqub commented government's approach to future labor relations would expose his true position towards and willingness to work with labor. -------------- Strike Not Political for Unions But LASCO Supported Asari & Yar'Adua's Resignation -------------- ¶7. (C) When labor issued the 14-day ultimatum, the primary goal was to lower the VAT and price of petrol, Yaqub said. Likewise, Yaqub did not think the GON intended to seek political legitimacy by gaining the "upper hand" as former administrations would have done. Yar'Adua's government did not seize the opportunity to respond to the 14 day ultimatum or provide labor an official invitation to negotiate. Prior to the meeting with Yar'Adua, there was no formal correspondence between government and the unions, which Yaqub viewed as a lost opportunity on the side of government. That said, he could not discount that some labor leaders may have had hopes that the strike would take on political undertones. ¶8. (C) Niger Delta People's Volunteer Force (NDPVF) leader Dokubo Asari requested to join a Labor and Civil Society Organization (LASCO) pre-strike meeting in Lagos; Yaqub told LAGOS 00000480 003.2 OF 003 Asari he should not attend because his participation would send the "wrong signal" to the international community, GON, and Nigerian public. However, Yaqub confided a few LASCO members wanted Asari to support the strike to add more political perspective. Some members of LASCO wanted to use the strike to demand Yar'Adua's resignation, he said. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) While Yaqub viewed the strike as labor-centric, it is possible other individuals within labor saw it as an opportunity to challenge Yar'Adua's new Administration. It appears some members of civil society viewed the strike as an opportunity to test Yar'Adua's legitimacy. Many media sources related the strike to political issues and viewed government's response as indicative of the administration's leanings. If Yaqub's suggestion that Yar'Adua was prevented from seeing the ultimatum letter and participating in negotiations has some validity, it is unclear whether this will be the norm within the Administration or whether it is a symptom of a young and not-yet defined Presidency. End Comment. LATIMER