SUPREME COURT UPENDS ANAMBRA STATE POLITICS BY

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000457 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH SAO PAOLO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: SUPREME COURT UPENDS ANAMBRA STATE POLITICS BY GRANTING OBI FOUR YEARS IN OFFICE REF: LAGOS 227 LAGOS 00000457 001.2 OF 002 ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Peter Obi, the proverbial cat with nine lives, was granted yet another return to office when the Supreme Court ruled that he should remain the Governor of Anambra State until 2010, giving him a full four-year term and making null and void the state's April 2007 gubernatorial election. Former Special Presidential Advisor Andy Uba, who had been declared the winner of the April 2007 election, vacated the office immediately as President Umaru Yar'Adua ordered compliance with the Supreme Court decision. How Governor Obi will fare in the face of a hostile state assembly dominated by Uba supporters is uncertain. It is also uncertain whether this decision signals a mood of increased judicial independence that could spell trouble for the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP) in other electoral challenges. End summary. ¶2. (SBU) The Supreme Court on June 14 ruled that Governor Peter Obi, who waged a three-year court battle to claim his mandate, had the right to serve a full four year term. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) originally declared PDP candidate Chris Ngige as the winner of the 2003 gubernatorial election. However, this was overturned by the electoral tribunal and Obi took over as Anambra governor in March 2006. The Supreme Court ruling means that Obi will serve until March 2010 and makes the April 2007 gubernatorial election null and void, since the office was not vacant. The Court ordered Andy Uba to immediately vacate the Anambra Government House and chided INEC for having ignored the court proceedings and holding the April 2007 gubernatorial election which brought Uba to power. (Note: INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu earlier this year declared that Peter Obi and two of Uba's other main opponents were ineligible to contest the April gubernatorial election. Many observers believe that Iwu owes his position as INEC Chairman to Andy Uba, who advocated for Iwu with former President Obasanjo. End note) After the verdict, President Yar'Adua issued a press release instructing the Solicitor General and the Inspector General of Police to ensure the immediate reinstatement of Governor Obi in light of the court decision. ¶3. (U) In a separate decision, the Court denied former Oyo State Governor Rashidi Ladoja's petition to have his tenure extended by 11 months to make up for the time he was out of office due to an impeachment that was later overturned as unlawful. The Court determined that Ladoja's tenure expired four years after he had been sworn in as Governor (May 2007). ¶4. (SBU) Anayo Okoni, correspondent for the Daily Independent, told Poloff that no one knew how the Supreme Court would decide, although the highest court had suggested that Uba should be prepared to vacate the government house at a moment's notice. Anambra erupted in jubilation on news of Obi's court victory, Okoni said. While Anambrans applauded Obi's triumph, they took particular pleasure in the unpopular Uba's quick and humiliating exit, Okoni commented. In Anambra's largest city Onitsha, Okoni said people were particularly joyous because the extortionist hoodlums and gangs, which Obi had expelled, had returned after Uba's inauguration. So far Anambra was quiet, Okoni added, and people did not foresee violence in connection with the handover. ¶5. (SBU) Comment: Anambra has long been a bellwether for politics in the Southeast, and Obi's victory was cheered by many both inside and outside the state. The Court's decision was also widely praised as in accordance with the constitution. The decision opens the door for staggered elections in Nigeria--a first. It is unknown what, if any, effect the decision will have on the 2007 election tribunals. Obi had a determination to win at court, but could also draw on his personal wealth to pay the high court fees required to pursue his mandate. The Courts have so far decided on narrow LAGOS 00000457 002.2 OF 002 issues of interpretation, but it would be another step to act decisively on issues of election rigging. ¶6. (SBU) As far as the consequences for Anambra, despite his personal popularity Obi's tenure had heretofore been disappointing. The Uba family's interference in Anambra politics is likely to continue, and with the state assembly dominated by Uba supporters, Obi will likely find the navigating difficult. Obi will need to somehow cultivate their support to make the remainder of his term fruitful for Anambra's citizens. End comment. LATIMER