PDP INSIDER: LISTS MENU OF OPTIONS FOR PACIFYING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000325

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DS/IP/AF, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/OSAC
WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON
DOE FOR GPERSON, CAROLYN GAY
TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS, SRENENDER, DFIELDS
COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS
STATE PASS USTR FOR ASST USTR FLISER
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD
STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART
STATE PASS TDA FOR NCABOT
STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER
STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER NI
SUBJECT: PDP INSIDER: LISTS MENU OF OPTIONS FOR PACIFYING
OPPOSITION

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Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (
D)


1. (C) Summary: The People's Democratic Party (PDP) should
seek new elections in some areas to appease the political
opposition rather than allow the opposition to challenge the
party's candidates in court. Judicial challenges would
expose the depth of election rigging, Francis Sheen, PDP
insider and press aide to the Vice President-elect, told
Poloff April 26. The PDP played the "numbers game"
successfully, winning the vast majority of governorships,
National Assembly and State House and Senate seats, not to
mention the Presidency, Sheen said. Bayelsa Governor
Goodluck Jonathan and Dr. Godknows Igali, Special Adviser to
the President on the Niger Delta and former Secretary to
Bayelsa State Government, continue to interact with Bayelsa
State militants, despite the April 20 militant attack on the
Governor's house. End Summary.

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PDP Should Avoid Court Cases, Seek Runoff Elections
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2. (C) In the states where the election results were the
most suspect, Sheen recommended the PDP avoid court
challenges by seeking new elections. Sheen thought going to
trial would be detrimental to the PDP because judicial
scrutiny would expose all the PDP-authored electoral
irregularities. Sheen advised runoff elections to settle
disputes because they would help the opposition "realize and
accept their loss." Sheen suggested there may also be some
nominations to the boards of Federal parastatals available to
buy off the opposition figures who were threatening
challenges. Sheen said the PDP would try to draw in the AC
and ANPP opposition with the creation of a Unity Party by May

29. (Comment: If Sheen's solution represents the best of PDP
thought then what he has shown is a woeful disregard, if not
disdain, for the opposition. It is a cold calculation that
the Nigerian public is so utterly anesthetized that it would
accept such an artifice. End Comment.)

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PDP Played Elections "Numbers Game" Well; To Abuja!
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3. (C) Sheen bragged the elections were a success and the
PDP played the "number game" so well the results could not be
disputed. The PDP is one state away from gaining the Senate
majority, Sheen pointed out. Sheen was confident the PDP
would have its majority if the opposition agreed to new
elections in the states contesting the election results.


4. (C) Sheen also thought this year's elections were better
than those of 2003 because the violence was markedly less.
Whereas 980 deaths occurred in 2003, the number of deaths
this year was approximately 47 (plus 20 unarmed police).
Many fewer were "perpetrated by the PDP" this year than in
the past, Sheen said. (Comment: We wish the number of actual
deQs approximated Sheen's figures. Unfortunately many more
lost their lives. We will never know the number with
certitude; that several hundred if not well in excess of a
thousand people perished due to electoral violence is not a
prodigal estimate. End Comment.)


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5. (C) Sheen said President-elect Umaru Yar'Adua and
Goodluck Jonathan would not "heat up the polity" and
therefore would be able to maintain national peace and pursue
their "PowerPoint plan" highlighting security and education
once in office. Sheen expected to become Vice President
Goodluck Jonathan's Principal Staff Officer who would act as
liaison between the Vice President and non-core ministries,
or those ministries which do not directly relate to the
Nigerian economy, such as the Bureau of Public Enterprises.

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Niger Delta Security
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6. (C) The April 20 attack on Bayelsa's Government House was
planned by militant leaders upset with the government for
trying to win the support of subordinate militant leaders who
have become insubordinate, Sheen commented. Governor
Goodluck Jonathan had strong relations with the mid-level
militants and was able to draw them to government house for
talks. Sheen stated that Jonathan and Peremobowei Ebebi,
Deputy Governor-elect, were former "street boys" and had ties
to some of the militants and cultists. On the other hand,
Dr. Godknows Igali, Secretary to Bayelsa State Government and
also Special Advisor to the President on the Niger Delta, has
cultivated relations with the major militant leaders. Now
that Jonathan will be the Vice President, there is a plan for
Igali and Jonathan to switch so that Jonathon works with
major militant leaders and Igali with the mid-level, Sheen
divulged. As Special Advisor to the President on the Niger
Delta, Dr. Igali has educated the President about the
complexities of the problem, Sheen said approvingly.


7. (C) Sheen predicted the state derivation of oil revenue
would increase from 13 to 25 percent once Yar'Adua and
Jonathan settle in office. State planning commissions could
be created and staffed by the GON to issue funding directly
to local government areas (LGAs),rather than pass the
derivation through the state government's coffers.

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Need Pro-West Experts to Continue Development In Bayelsa
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8. (C) Sheen is looking for educated western-leaning
development experts to succeed him as economic/development
advisor for the Governor of Bayelsa State. He is also
seeking to fill other technical positions for the incoming
Governor of Bayelsa. Sheen hopes to find individuals
familiar with the United States and European Union nations
because of the education possibilities these countries offer
and because economic and trade ties with these countries are
strong. (Note: Sheen worked for Siemens in the U.S. before
taking up his current post with the Bayelsa state government;
he has visited the U.S. on numerous occasions to purchase
equipment, seek investments, and bring foreign technical
expertise to Bayelsa. End Note.) Sheen hopes to place
technocrats in the bulk of the jobs. However, the Special
Advisor and Commissioner positions would be reserved for
political appointments for community leaders and state
politicos.

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Comment

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9. (C) Sheen clearly toes the party line and his estimate of
the number of deaths demonstrates the extent that elements in
the PDP are willing to go to excuse a substandard election
process. That he gave options to pacify the opposition
indicates a degree of concern with the scope and intensity of
criticism against the election. However, the options are
illusory and represent a failure to come to grips with the
reality that the opposition was so short-changed by the
results, that the results are now short-changed of their
legitimacy. In short, Sheen's answer is to go through the
motions of corrective action but to change nothing about the
outcome. While his particular recommendations of how to
achieve this non-change may not be taken, most PDP decision
makers share Sheen's general point of view. End Comment.
BROWNE