PDP INSIDER: LISTS MENU OF OPTIONS FOR PACIFYING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000325 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DS/IP/AF, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/OSAC WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON DOE FOR GPERSON, CAROLYN GAY TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS, SRENENDER, DFIELDS COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS STATE PASS USTR FOR ASST USTR FLISER STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART STATE PASS TDA FOR NCABOT STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER NI SUBJECT: PDP INSIDER: LISTS MENU OF OPTIONS FOR PACIFYING OPPOSITION LAGOS 00000325 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and ( D) ¶1. (C) Summary: The People's Democratic Party (PDP) should seek new elections in some areas to appease the political opposition rather than allow the opposition to challenge the party's candidates in court. Judicial challenges would expose the depth of election rigging, Francis Sheen, PDP insider and press aide to the Vice President-elect, told Poloff April 26. The PDP played the "numbers game" successfully, winning the vast majority of governorships, National Assembly and State House and Senate seats, not to mention the Presidency, Sheen said. Bayelsa Governor Goodluck Jonathan and Dr. Godknows Igali, Special Adviser to the President on the Niger Delta and former Secretary to Bayelsa State Government, continue to interact with Bayelsa State militants, despite the April 20 militant attack on the Governor's house. End Summary. -------------- -------------- PDP Should Avoid Court Cases, Seek Runoff Elections -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) In the states where the election results were the most suspect, Sheen recommended the PDP avoid court challenges by seeking new elections. Sheen thought going to trial would be detrimental to the PDP because judicial scrutiny would expose all the PDP-authored electoral irregularities. Sheen advised runoff elections to settle disputes because they would help the opposition "realize and accept their loss." Sheen suggested there may also be some nominations to the boards of Federal parastatals available to buy off the opposition figures who were threatening challenges. Sheen said the PDP would try to draw in the AC and ANPP opposition with the creation of a Unity Party by May ¶29. (Comment: If Sheen's solution represents the best of PDP thought then what he has shown is a woeful disregard, if not disdain, for the opposition. It is a cold calculation that the Nigerian public is so utterly anesthetized that it would accept such an artifice. End Comment.) -------------- -------------- PDP Played Elections "Numbers Game" Well; To Abuja! -------------- -------------- ¶3. (C) Sheen bragged the elections were a success and the PDP played the "number game" so well the results could not be disputed. The PDP is one state away from gaining the Senate majority, Sheen pointed out. Sheen was confident the PDP would have its majority if the opposition agreed to new elections in the states contesting the election results. ¶4. (C) Sheen also thought this year's elections were better than those of 2003 because the violence was markedly less. Whereas 980 deaths occurred in 2003, the number of deaths this year was approximately 47 (plus 20 unarmed police). Many fewer were "perpetrated by the PDP" this year than in the past, Sheen said. (Comment: We wish the number of actual deQs approximated Sheen's figures. Unfortunately many more lost their lives. We will never know the number with certitude; that several hundred if not well in excess of a thousand people perished due to electoral violence is not a prodigal estimate. End Comment.) LAGOS 00000325 002.2 OF 003 ¶5. (C) Sheen said President-elect Umaru Yar'Adua and Goodluck Jonathan would not "heat up the polity" and therefore would be able to maintain national peace and pursue their "PowerPoint plan" highlighting security and education once in office. Sheen expected to become Vice President Goodluck Jonathan's Principal Staff Officer who would act as liaison between the Vice President and non-core ministries, or those ministries which do not directly relate to the Nigerian economy, such as the Bureau of Public Enterprises. -------------- Niger Delta Security -------------- ¶6. (C) The April 20 attack on Bayelsa's Government House was planned by militant leaders upset with the government for trying to win the support of subordinate militant leaders who have become insubordinate, Sheen commented. Governor Goodluck Jonathan had strong relations with the mid-level militants and was able to draw them to government house for talks. Sheen stated that Jonathan and Peremobowei Ebebi, Deputy Governor-elect, were former "street boys" and had ties to some of the militants and cultists. On the other hand, Dr. Godknows Igali, Secretary to Bayelsa State Government and also Special Advisor to the President on the Niger Delta, has cultivated relations with the major militant leaders. Now that Jonathan will be the Vice President, there is a plan for Igali and Jonathan to switch so that Jonathon works with major militant leaders and Igali with the mid-level, Sheen divulged. As Special Advisor to the President on the Niger Delta, Dr. Igali has educated the President about the complexities of the problem, Sheen said approvingly. ¶7. (C) Sheen predicted the state derivation of oil revenue would increase from 13 to 25 percent once Yar'Adua and Jonathan settle in office. State planning commissions could be created and staffed by the GON to issue funding directly to local government areas (LGAs),rather than pass the derivation through the state government's coffers. -------------- -------------- Need Pro-West Experts to Continue Development In Bayelsa -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Sheen is looking for educated western-leaning development experts to succeed him as economic/development advisor for the Governor of Bayelsa State. He is also seeking to fill other technical positions for the incoming Governor of Bayelsa. Sheen hopes to find individuals familiar with the United States and European Union nations because of the education possibilities these countries offer and because economic and trade ties with these countries are strong. (Note: Sheen worked for Siemens in the U.S. before taking up his current post with the Bayelsa state government; he has visited the U.S. on numerous occasions to purchase equipment, seek investments, and bring foreign technical expertise to Bayelsa. End Note.) Sheen hopes to place technocrats in the bulk of the jobs. However, the Special Advisor and Commissioner positions would be reserved for political appointments for community leaders and state politicos. -------------- Comment LAGOS 00000325 003.2 OF 003 -------------- ¶9. (C) Sheen clearly toes the party line and his estimate of the number of deaths demonstrates the extent that elements in the PDP are willing to go to excuse a substandard election process. That he gave options to pacify the opposition indicates a degree of concern with the scope and intensity of criticism against the election. However, the options are illusory and represent a failure to come to grips with the reality that the opposition was so short-changed by the results, that the results are now short-changed of their legitimacy. In short, Sheen's answer is to go through the motions of corrective action but to change nothing about the outcome. While his particular recommendations of how to achieve this non-change may not be taken, most PDP decision makers share Sheen's general point of view. End Comment. BROWNE