OONI OF IFE CALLS YAR'ADUA "RIGHT MAN FOR THE JOB"

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000323

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/09/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: OONI OF IFE CALLS YAR'ADUA "RIGHT MAN FOR THE JOB"

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Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: A close supporter of President Obasanjo, the
Ooni of Ife, believes Yar'Adua is "the right man for the job"
of President. The Ooni believes opposition criticisms of the
election, although strident, will yield little concrete
action and will dissipate quickly. The Ooni was
collaborating with northern traditional leaders, including
the Emir of Kano, to urge opposition leaders to accept the
election result. The Ooni said All-Nigeria People's Party
(ANPP) candidate Buhari genuinely lost because he never
gained a foothold in the south and lost much of his previous
traction in the north. The Federal Government found the
post-election statement issued by the United States "very
diplomatic", according to the Ooni's nephew, Aviation
Minister Femi Fani-Kayode. End Summary.


2. (C) In a May 1 conversation, the Ooni of Ife told the
Consul General "the right man had been selected" as President
of Nigeria. Yar'Adua is "quiet, not arrogant", the Ooni
said. The Ooni believed that Yar'Adua would be a
conciliatory figure whose personal humility will allow him to
reach out to opposition figures in an effort salve political
wounds. In this vein, the Ooni has been working with other
traditional rulers to ease tensions resulting from the
election. On his part, the Ooni issued a televised statement
calling for calm and a recognition of the electoral results.
Because of his position as the principal Yoruba traditional
ruler, this message carried great weight not only in the
Southwest but also throughout Nigeria, the Ooni asserted.



3. (C) Additionally, he has been working with the Emir of
Kano and other traditional rulers nationwide. The Ooni
claimed the Emir had basically gotten the Northern
traditional leaders to endorse the election results and to
appeal to their subjects not to allow opposition political
leaders to sway them toward acts of civil disturbance or
disobedience. On a daily basis, more and more opposition
figures are extending a hand to Yar'Adua in the hopes of
having access to power after the May 29 inauguration. Even
Vice president Atiku is meeting Yar'Adua, asserted the Ooni.
He said Atiku had resigned himself to returning to his
hometown of Yola (Adamawa State). At this point, Atiku would
be satisfied if given the opportunity to designate two of his
partisans for cabinet ministers in the new government,
maintained the Ooni.


4. (C) The Ooni claimed Buhari clearly lost the election
and has been revealed to be a spent political force. He
asserted Buhari had alientated northern traditional rulers as
well as the ANPP governors in the northern states. These
governors fought for their elections but, when it came to the
presidential race, they abandoned their candidate in favor of
their gubernatorial colleague Yar'Adua. Without the support
of these governors, Buhari had no chance of winning these
states, explained the Ooni. Buhari also grossly
underestimated the political strength of his few Yoruba
supporters like former Finance Minister Olu Falae. Thus
Buhari thought he had made strong headway in the Southwest
when all he took was a miniscule step, the Ooni posited. A
more telling indicator of the Yoruba view of Buhari was the
manner the widow of Obafemi Awolowo rebuffed Buhari's request
to see her. The Ooni recounted not only did she refuse to
see the Northern "jihadist", but she asked the Ooni to tell
Buhari that she prayed daily Buhari would not become
President again.


5. (C) Buhari could never rule Nigeria, the Ooni commented,
because the common man in Nigeria does not believe in him.
Buhari represents the opposite extreme from Yar'Adua, the
Ooni stated. The Ooni said Buhari was haughty and
mean-spirited. Another retired general from Katsina recently
warned the Ooni that Buhari was an ungenerous, vindictive
soul who did not relate well with most people.


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6. (C) The Ooni's approbation of Buhari even extended to
the point of disparaging his family lineage. The Ooni
asserted that Yar'Adua was related to the Emir of Daura but
that Buhari's bloodline could be traced to a family of slaves
of that same royal household. While Yar'Adua was princely
and well-suited for leadership, Buhari internally boiled with
resentment at his family's low station and wanted to rip at
the venerated institution of the traditional rulers, the Ooni
expostulated. (Comment: While Nigeria remains very much a
traditional society, the comments about Buhari's family are
nevertheless jarring. They reveal the extent to which PDP
partisans are willing to go to justify what occurred on
election day. Selective amnesia is also at play. The
revered first President of Nigeria, Tafawa Balawa, was also
the son of a family deemed to be a part of the slave caste.
End Comment)


7. (C) Minister of Aviation Femi Fani-Kayode, the Ooni's
nephew, said that the Federal Government was pleased with the
Department's statement on the elections. The message was
"very diplomatic", Fani-Kayode said, unlike that from the
U.K. Fani-Kayode also bristled that the British High
Commissioner said his government would likely not send a
delegation to the inauguration ceremony. Stressing that we
saw the recent election as seriously flawed, the Consul
General urged the incoming Administration to begin
immediately to seek the assistance of international partners
for the 2011 election. By acknowledging the election flaws
instead of trying to defend them, such a move would help
reassure international and domestic audiences alike, he said.



8. (C) Comment: Approval of Yar'Adua by this traditional
ruler was a foregone conclusion given the Ooni's closeness to
President Obasanjo. Yoruba traditional rule is not as highly
centralized as the Hausa north, and the authority of
traditional rulers has been weakened over time; nonetheless,
the Ooni's stature is widely recognized, and his approval of
Yar'Adua will help quiet the Southwest to some extent. The
Ooni likely overestimates, however, the ease with which the
opposition will acclimate. Even in the Southwest, where the
Ooni is literally king, those who oppose the election have
not yet thrown in the towel.
BROWNE