NIGER DELTA DEVELOPMENT IN YAR'ADUA'S HANDS;

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000310 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DS/IP/AF, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/OSAC WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON DOE FOR GPERSON, CAROLYN GAY TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS, SRENENDER, DFIELDS COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS STATE PASS USTR FOR ASST USTR FLISER STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART STATE PASS TDA FOR NCABOT STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER NI SUBJECT: NIGER DELTA DEVELOPMENT IN YAR'ADUA'S HANDS; CRISIS WITHIN MEND, POLO SEEKS LGA CONTROL LAGOS 00000310 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and ( D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Dimieari Von Kemedi, Program Head of the NGO Our Niger Delta and informal adviser to Vice-President-elect Goodluck Jonathan, told Poloffs that prospects for peace in the Niger Delta region hinge on whether the incoming administration has the political will to spend the time and resources needed to resolve the many political and economic issues that make up the crisis. Von Kemedi, who said he declined an offer to join the new Administration, has relationships with Delta militants and believes solutions can be found to the individual issues each has with the Federal Government. The Federal Government's treatment of Dokubo Asari will continue to be a barrier to disarming the militants. End Summary. ¶2. (C) Dimieari Von Kemedi, head of the NGO Our Niger Delta spoke to Poloffs on April 19. Whether the new Administration can effectively address the festering delta will depend upon President-elect Yar'Adua's personal resolve. Yar'Adua's running mate, Bayelsa Governor Goodluck Jonathan, would not be able to lead the effort because he might be seen as encroaching on prerogatives that are solely presidential. Moreover, Von Kemedi noted ruefully, Yar'Adua has not had a good relationship with his deputy governors and Von Kemedi does not see that pattern changing just because Yar'Adua is moving to Aso Villa. Von Kemedi predicted a rocky relationship between Yar'Adua and Jonathan. Jonathan himself was not a strong governor, Von Kemedi opined. However, there is a chance his humility might earn Yar'Adua's confidence and allow him a greater substantive role over time. Von Kemedi, a member of the same Ijaw clan as Jonathan, will not join the Administration. Von Kemedi prefers to remain with the NGO while hoping to continue to have access to Jonathan after he becomes Vice President. -------------- CNN Interview Sparks Crisis in MEND -------------- ¶3. (C) The CNN interview conducted by Sorius Samura on CNN was visible evidence of a crisis in the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND),Von Kemedi said. "Jomo Gbomo," the nom de guerre of the individual who arranged the interview, believes he is the leader of MEND. This person is an arms dealer, comparatively well-educated, who sells U.S. arms to the Middle East and West Africa out of South Africa, Von Kemedi said. In order to reassert his leadership over MEND, Government Tom Polo issued statements after the interview saying that persons interviewed were not MEND. Von Kemedi noted there had been no subsequent statements from "Jomo Gbomo." However, "Cynthia Whyte," the nom de guerre of a woman known to be close to Tom Polo, had begun again to issue more frequent statements on behalf of the Federated Niger Delta Ijaw Communities (FNDIC). (Note: Although Von Kemedi did not mention the name, his description of Jomo Gbomo parallels what we know of arms dealer Henry Okah. End note) ¶4. (C) Tom Polo is a reasonable person, humble yet resolute, according to Von Kemedi. Because of Tom Polo's relative frankness, the problems he has with the government can be resolved. And, because Ijaws in Delta, Bayelsa and Rivers LAGOS 00000310 002.2 OF 003 states all respect him, Tom Polo can be helpful in resolving the crisis of the Niger Delta, Von Kemedi said. -------------- -------------- Tom Polo's Motivation: LGA Control, Basic Services -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Von Kemedi said he had met militant leaders throughout the Delta. While the ultimate solution to problems in the region is development and justice, Von Kemedi believed the lack of development has created a space in which local issues and sheer criminality have festered. Individuals in this region who have emerged as leaders has a different set of issues they want to see addressed. ¶6. (C) When he first met Tom Polo, Von Kemedi was surprised to learn that Tom Polo was still bristling over an incident that occurred in 1991. Military leader Sani Abacha had created a local government area (LGA) for the Ijaws in Warri. However, the boundaries were not properly drawn, resettling them in a district with a population 60 percent Itsekiri and 40 percent Ijaw. Fighting erupted between the two groups. Tom Polo was only 14 years old. Now in his late twenties, he continues to resent the LGA's failure to benefit the Ijaw community. There is no secondary school in Tom Polo's village, nor any water supply, Von Kemedi said. These very specific issues are what drives Tom Polo, Von Kemedi believes. ¶7. (C) Other individuals leading groups in the Niger Delta have different motivations, Von Kemedi said. Ateke Tom claimed he worked for Governor Peter Odili in Rivers State as an enforcer, intimidating people during elections. Ateke Tom is in no way a champion of resource control, Von Kemedi said, and continues criminal activities. Asari Dokubu also once worked for Governor Odili, but unlike Ateke Tom, remains on the Governor's good books. Soboma George is simply a bad man, Von Kemedi said. ¶8. (C) Von Kemedi believes that the issues he has identified as important to these Niger Delta leaders are far removed from larger questions such as whether to increase the percentage of oil revenues allocated to the oil-producing states and LGAs by the Federal Government, the central issue in the larger "resources control" debate. Addressing resource control would not change the pattern of criminality that has emerged, he said. -------------- -------------- Militant Involvement in Illegal Bunkering "Peripheral" -------------- -------------- ¶9. (C) None of these militant leaders is involved in illegal oil bunkering except in a peripheral way, Von Kemedi asserted. They do "odd jobs" around illegal bunkering, including guarding the areas where bunkering takes place. However, bunkering itself is very sophisticated and these militant leaders are neither its perpetrators nor its primary beneficiaries. If the militants were the primary beneficiaries they would be very rich, Von Kemedi commented, but he has seen no evidence of that wealth when he has visited their camps. -------------- -------------- LAGOS 00000310 003.2 OF 003 FG's Handling of Asari: A Barrier to Disarming Militants -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) Getting the militants to relinquish their guns would not be difficult, Von Kemedi said, if not for the Federal Government's treatment of Dokubo Asari. The Federal Government (FG) invited Asari to Abuja on the pretext of a meeting; Asari accepted the offer only to be seized by the government and thrown into jail. As a prerequisite to disarmament, the incoming government would need to make a credible statement that similar duplicity would not recur, Von Kemedi said. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Von Kemedi's assertion of a leadership struggle among the Ijaw militants is plausible. It also is as troubling as it is believable. If this is the case, we can expect to see more violence and attacks as the groups will likely use oil workers and facilities as pawns in their tussle for supremacy. His description of the motives which drive the various militant leaders tracks with our own assessment. However, he was mum on what spurs Henry Okah, who is the primary rival of Tom Polo. While Tom Polo's objectives are local and very practical, Okah may have a broader, ideological vision. Both men are not adverse to making money as they ply their militant tradecraft. An element of avarice lurks in almost every militant misdeed. However, should Okah's weltanschauung become ascendant, the Delta could turn even more nettlesome. End Comment. BROWNE