BAYELSA GOVERNOR WINS VICE PRESIDENTIAL BID

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SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: BAYELSA GOVERNOR WINS VICE PRESIDENTIAL BID


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Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (
D)


1. (C) Summary: Oronto Douglas, a confidant of Bayelsa State
Governor Goodluck Jonathan, told Poloff early December 18
that Jonathan was chosen to be PDP presidential aspirant
Umaru Yar'Adua's running mate because he is well respected
among Ijaw leaders such as Chief Edwin Clark, because he has
built a successful development program in Bayelsa, and
because he has been a good Governor. His comments to
PolCouns the day before were very different, however. Rivers
State Governor Peter Odili, who thought he was going to be
Yar'Adua's running mate, was not given the appointment
because the EFCC has something on him, Douglas learned from
an insider. End Summary.

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Jonathan has Ijaw Favor & Strong Development Background
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2. (C) The appointment was made after "long, long meetings"
and "was like a coup against other aspirants" Oronto Douglas,
a well-connected human rights activist from Bayelsa and
confidant of Governor Goodluck, divulged to Poloff December

18. One reason Governor Jonathan was given the vice
presidential appointment, Douglas explained, was because he
is supported by Ijaw leaders like Chief Edwin Clark and Ijaw
communities throughout the south-south (Bayelsa State is over
95 percent Ijaw, and there are significant Ijaw population in
neighboring south-south states). Ijaws are believed to be
Nigeria's fourth largest ethnic group.


3. (C) It was felt that Ijaw militants in the Delta would
give a new administration some breathing room if one of their
kith and kin became the country's second citizen, Douglas
said. Also making Jonathan an attractive vice presidential
running mate to Yar'Adua is the fact that Jonathan has a
strong development program, the Bayelsa Partnership
Initiative (BPI),which focuses on community-driven
development. The BPI empowers communities by giving them
five to six percent of Bayelsa's 13 percent derivation to
spend as the community deems necessary. Douglas said if
elected, Jonathan will expand this development scheme to the
Federal Government and then spread it throughout the
south-south states.


4. (C) However, in a conversation with PolCouns the night
before, Douglas disparaged Governor Jonathan. He said that
the outstanding corruption charges against him and his wife
were troubling. Douglas then claimed that while Jonathan
enjoyed the support of the "Ijaw leaders," the "restive
youth" had little respect for the "so-called leaders."
Douglas thought that, like the "leaders," Jonathan was part
of the system of corruption that had impoverished the Niger
Delta for decades. "Even his development initiative is
viewed with skepticism by the populace," he said. (Comment:
Vast inconsistencies in what Douglas said in these two
conversations is hard to square. Perhaps it says something
about the tight-rope act Douglas is trying to maintain as a
potential figure in Jonathan's camp but also as a community
activist who has a cordial relationship with several militant
groups. End comment)


5. (C) In his conversation with Poloff, Douglas said a new
PDP gubernatorial candidate for Bayelsa State to take
Goodluck Jonathan's place would be chosen soon. He commented
that Executive Director of Finance for the Niger Delta
Development Commission (NDDC) Timi Alaibe might emerge as the
replacement for Jonathan on the PDP gubernatorial ticket.
Alaibe, known for misallocating NDDC funds and backing
several militant groups, "is the worst possible choice,"
Douglas averred.

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Odili Written Off
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6. (C) It wasn't until Yar'Adua was at the podium and
publicly announced Goodluck Jonathan to be his running mate
that Governor Odili of Rivers State realized he was not the
PDP's vice presidential candidate, Douglas chuckled to
Poloff. The look on Odili's face and the way he prematurely

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approached the podium revealed his surprise and
disappointment. A friend of Douglas had access to Yar'Adua's
speech and confided to him that Odili's name was mentioned as
the running mate. However, just before the convention, his
name was excised, the friend reported.


7. (C) Apparently, Odili fell victim to an Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) report claiming
significant malfeasance including an instance where naira 60
billion was earmarked for a gas plant project that actually
cost only naira 20 billion, Douglas said. Concerns that
Odili could not be trusted also plagued his bid for the vice
presidency. Douglas recalled that as Rivers State Deputy
Governor, Odili connived to chase then Governor Rufus Ada
George from office. This left Yar'Adua and others with a
fear that Odili would turn on them as well, Douglas asserted.
However, now that Odili has been written off the PDP
presidential/vice presidential ticket, he will need to
practice self-preservation, Douglas said. Odili should heed
the EFCC warnings and learn from others who have been jailed,
lost access to accounts and financial resources, and have
been taken to court, Douglas warned.

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Comment
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8. (C) Jonathan on the PDP ticket will provide the clamoring
south-south with the Aso Rock representation it has demanded,
according to Douglas. While Jonathan's development efforts
in Baylesa have been appreciated by some communities, they
have not been able to quell the militant activities in the
state. Given the fractious nature of Ijaw politics,
Jonathan's nomination will produce both applause and
invectives among the Ijaw. Overall, most Ijaw will welcome
it as a sign that they are finally being taken seriously.
Others will see it as an attempt to pay of the Ijaw group
with one office. Still other Ijaws just don't like Jonathan
and will not want his star to ascend trouble-free. Thus,
while most Ijaws will give him a chance to prove himself as
Vice President, his selection will not automatically silence
Ijaw militants. In fact, it probably helped spark some of
the most recent eruptions as militants scrambled to assert
that they would not be bought off. End Comment.
BROWNE