THE "CORE" NIGER DELTA: THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000266 SIPDIS SIPDIS DOE FOR GPERSON, CGAY TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS, SRENENDER, DFIELDS COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS STATE PASS USTR FOR ASST USTR FLISER STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART STATE PASS TDA FOR NCABOT STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017 TAGS: ENRG EPET NI PGOV SUBJECT: THE "CORE" NIGER DELTA: THE DAY BEFORE THE ELECTION LAGOS 00000266 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Consul General Brian Browne for Reasons 1.4 (B,D) ¶1. (C) Summary: On the eve of the start of Nigeria's two-tiered election season, it appears that the People's Democratic Party (PDP) will recapture the gubernatorial seats of the three major states of the oil rich Niger Delta. Rivers State Governor Odili, Although still smarting from being pressured out of the People's Democratic Party (PDP) presidential contest, supports the PDP to avoid the threat of EFCC prosecution. In Delta State, PDP candidate Emmanuel Uduaghan and FNDIC's Tom Polo have agreed that in return for Tom Polo's support, Uduaghan will make Tom Polo head of the Southwest Warri Local Government Area. This may keep the City of Warri from the violent paroxysms it witnessed during the 2003 elections. According to Chevron, Tom Polo even agreed to allow the repair of breaks in the gas pipeline that passes through the Channomi Channel, which will help the Government to alleviate months of electrical power shortages in Lagos. In Bayelsa, the PDP should win relatively effortlessly. End Summary. Rivers State: -------------- ¶2. (C) Rivers State Governor Odili remains hurt over his loss of the PDP Presidential candidacy. It was a public humiliation for him. However, the threat of EFCC prosecution keeps Odili supporting the PDP ticket and from publicly exhibiting any indications that he might seek to retribute this slight. Nonetheless, locals are "fed up" with the PDP. Ethnic Ijaw anger at the continued incarceration of Dokubo Asari will also hurt the PDP. The PDP will not win in Rivers' State if Asari is not released from prison, the Labor Party gubernatorial candidate predicted. Tony Akoji, formerly with the State Security Service and currently Halliburton Chief of Security, agrees that Rivers State may produce a protest vote against the PDP. If this happens, he predicted, PDP will engage in massive rigging. The PDP fears the loss of this key state with its oil revenues. To protect his future, Governor Odili will likely work hard to deliver the state to the PDP with his ample coffers and political structure he will likely be able to accomplish this objective notwithstanding significant public discontent. Delta State -------------- ¶3. (C) PDP candidate for Bayelsa State governor, Emmanuel Uduaghan, has spent a significant amount of time visiting Government Tom Polo at Camp 5 on Channomi Creek where the Federated Niger Delta Ijaw Congress (FNDIC) camp is based. According to one interlocutor, Uduaghan has agreed to make FNDIC leader Government Tom Polo head of the Southwest Warri Local Government Area (LGA) in exchange for Polo's FINDIC's quiescence. Siting the headquarters of this LGA in Itsekiri territory in 2003 sparked bloody fighting between Ijaws and Itsekiri that led to thousands of internally displaced people, several killings and the suspensiQof the elections in Warri that year. This year, the interlocutor said, the Itsekiri have one of their own as PDP candidate for Governor, and are receiving funds for development directly from Chevron through the mechanism of the Global Memorandum of Understanding. In addition, the Itsekiri recognize that they are outgunned, and are willing to accept the appointment of an Ijaw to head the LGA. ¶4. (C) According to Chevron, Tom Polo has also agreed to allow the repair of breaks in the gas pipeline that passes through the Channomi Channel. The move will help to end months of electrical power shortages in Lagos. LAGOS 00000266 002.2 OF 002 Bayelsa State -------------- ¶5. (C) Our interlocutors predict that elections in Bayelsa will be peaceful. PDP candidate Timipre Sylva has promised to continue the development strategies put in place by his predecessor, current PDP Vice Presidential candidate Goodluck Jonathan. Sylva is reported to be close to FNDIC's Tom Polo. ¶6. (C) Comment: The PDP want to retain these three major oil producing states because of the large revenue streams they generate. Most indications point to PDP continuation in each. In Rivers, Governor Odili is the key. If he has truly decided to remain with the PDP in order to safeguard his political and personal future, he will use his ample resources to deliver a handsome margin of votes to the PDP as he did in 2003. However, if Odili takes a laisse faire attitude, the gubernatorial race is anyone's for the taking. The outcome of the Presidential race in the state would likely still fall to Yar'Adua but perhaps not by the heady margins of the previous election. In Delta, the PDP may have escaped confrontation with the Ijaws by breaking bread with FNDIC's Tom Polo. If so, Warri and the nearby Chevron Escravos facility, will not be under threat as they were in ¶2003. Buoyed by the fact that Governor Jonathan is now the PDP Vice Presidential candidate and that the state PDP chapter has closed ranks around the new gubernatorial candidate, the PDP should win Bayelsa relatively easily in both gubernatorial and presidential races. BROWNE