SOUTHERN GOVERNORS SEE LITTLE INEC PREPARATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000265

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W, INR/AA, DS/IP/AF, DS/ICI/PII, DS/DSS/OSAC
WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON
DOE FOR GPERSON, CAROLYN GAY
TREASURY FOR ASEVERENS, SRENENDER, DFIELDS
COMMERCE FOR KBURRESS
STATE PASS USTR FOR ASST USTR FLISER
STATE PASS TRANSPORTATION FOR MARAD
STATE PASS OPIC FOR ZHAN AND MSTUCKART
STATE PASS TDA FOR NCABOT
STATE PASS EXIM FOR JRICHTER
STATE PASS USAID FOR GWEYNAND AND SLAWAETZ

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/13/2017
TAGS: NI PGOV PREL PHUM
SUBJECT: SOUTHERN GOVERNORS SEE LITTLE INEC PREPARATIONS

REF: LAGOS 162

LAGOS 00000265 001.2 OF 003


Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (
D)


1. (C) Summary: In recent separate conversations with the
Consul General, Governors of Cross River, Akwa Ibom and Imo
criticized the lack of electoral preparation in their states
just 10 days before the gubernatorial elections. While the
People's Democratic Party (PDP) will likely carry these
states in the gubernatorial and presidential contests, this
trio of governors is not enamored with their party, its
internal selection process, nor with its head, President
Obasanjo. The governors were decidedly more interested in
making sure the right person succeeded them than in ensuring
that PDP presidential candidate Yar'Adua wins their state.
Thus, although Yar'Adua may carry these states, his margin
may not be as significant as was Obasanjo's in 2003. End
Summary.

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Poor Election Planning Mystifies Governors
--------------


2. (C) During early April travels through southern Nigeria,
the governors of Cross River, Akwa Ibom and Imo told the
Consul General the Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) had not contacted them for logistical help as it had
previously. None of the governors were sanguine about INEC
preparations. Not one believed that, with the brief time
remaining, INEC could get its logistical house in order.


3. (C) Governor Achike Udenwa of Imo State said he did not
feel his usual "pre-election anticipation" and Governor
Victor Attah of Akwa Ibom described the People's Democratic
Party (PDP) and INEC as resembling a poorly run movie theatre
which has left the Nigerian audience wondering when the
image, whatever it may be, would come into focus. Attah
departed a recent Federal Executive meeting in Abuja with
more questions than he had arriving, particularly on hiring
and training staff and the preparedness of election-related
materials. Governor Donald Duke of Cross River scoffed at
INEC's announcement to place candidates' pictures on the
ballots because it would create a logistical nightmare for
printing and properly distributing materials. Duke added
that up to that moment he had had no contact with any INEC
official in the state and was unaware of INEC preparations.
In contrast, Duke stated that he worked closely with INEC in
2003 to give support such as vehicles, phones, etc.

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Presidential Election: What If
--------------


4. (C) All three speculated that a delay of the presidential
elections was possible. No one had a clear idea of what
would subsequently transpire should the delay materialize.
All disregarded the idea of an interim government as
extra-constitutional and something to be avoided. Attah
commented if no successive President were elected April 21
"things will get ugly." Unfortunately, Attah feared Obasanjo
might be hell-bent on pursuing some option that would keep
him in office after May 29. Each of the three governors had
little nice to say about the President's handling of
electoral matters. Each of the three was also told by the

LAGOS 00000265 002.2 OF 003


President to stand aside for Yar'Adua--thus they also have
quite personal reasons to grouse.

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PDP Strong in South-South & South-East; South-West Wildcard
-------------- --------------


5. (C) Duke estimated sixty percent of northern Nigeria
supported Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria People's Party
(ANPP) while the PDP's stronghold would be the south. Buhari
has not campaigned in southern Nigeria and does not have
sufficient strength or structure to make a dent in the south.
Allowing Vice President Atiku Abubakar to run for the
presidency under the Action Congress (AC) would strengthen
the PDP's claim to victory as the north, the PDP's weakest
region, would be further split among three major candidates,
Duke reasoned. He described Obasanjo's decision to prohibit
Atiku from running for the presidency as emotional, not
strategically sound.


6. (C) According to these governors, the PDP should win the
south-south states in the presidential race and all but Edo
in the governorship race. Our interlocutors agreed Edo could
go to former National Labor Congress President Adams
Oshiomole, the AC candidate. Attah cautioned that ethnic
Ijaws' objections to the PDP gubernatorial candidate in Delta
and a split within the Rivers PDP over the announcement of
Celestine Omehia instead of the Speaker of the State House of
Assembly, Rotimi Amaechi, as the party's governorship
candidate could possibly weaken the party's hold on these two
states. Attah warned electoral violence would occur in many
places in the South-South, particularly Rivers State.


7. (C) Neighboring Imo State in the south-east was no better
off, Attah said, because INEC and the state each announced
different candidates as the PDP gubernatorial nominee. Duke
commented Oyo, Ogun, and Lagos in the south-west were wild
cards in the governorship race, but expected the PDP to win
all three southern zones in the presidential race.
Similarly, Attah and Udenwa commented Lagos should go to the
Action Congress, not the PDP.

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Duke Warned to Lay Low by ANPP; Done with Politics
-------------- --------------


8. (C) A top official from the ANPP recently visited Duke.
The ANPP official was confident the ANPP could do well in
Rivers in the presidential election provided a level playing
field existed. The official entreated Duke not to allow the
PDP to rig too brazenly in the state. Duke said many
disenchanted PDP members defected to the AC after the party
primaries. Duke asserted that many governors, although
nominally still in the PDP, had their hearts elsewhere,
implying the AC. He foresaw a situation where these
governors would work assiduously so their allies would win
the gubernatorial races under the PDP. However, the effort
of these same governors would be noticeably more languid come
time to support the Obasanjo-annointed PDP presidential
candidate.


9. (C) When Duke told the President of his desire for the
PDP presidential nomination, Obasanjo withheld his
endorsement, instead cryptically mentioning "there are things
I would like to tell you but cannot." In hindsight, Duke

LAGOS 00000265 003.2 OF 003


interpreted this comment to mean Obasanjo already had
developed his plan of action before the National PDP
Convention. Duke said he pursued the presidential ticket "to
soothe his own curiosity," but was disappointed Obasanjo did
not support him and was more than upset that Obasanjo forced
him from the race at the eleventh hour. Claiming he was
tired and had nothing more to offer Cross River as governor,
Duke said he had hinted to the PDP he was not interested in a
ministerial or federal position under the new administration.



10. (C) Duke also recounted Governor Peter Odili of Rivers
State had expected Obasanjo's support for the presidency to
the extent that he had purchased 80 buses and several
aircraft for his national campaign. However, when it became
clear he would not be Obasanjo's successor, Odili backed down
and subsequently donated his campaign assets to others, but
mostly the presidential campaign. Duke said Odili gave 3
buses to Liyel Imoke, the PDP's governorship candidate in
Cross River state, who faces virtually zero opposition.

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Attah Criticizes the PDP; Identifies Weakness
--------------


11. (C) Governor Victor Attah of Akwa Ibom, like Duke, was
forced to drop from the PDP presidential nomination contest.
Attah told the Consul General the PDP had not helped promote
democracy and had become an impediment to democratization,
thus the upcoming elections would be more farce than fair.


12. (C) Continuing his diatribe against the
Obasanjo-dominated PDP, Attah said that he enjoyed being
governor, but did not enjoy being a governor under President
Obasanjo. Like Duke, Attah said he was not interested in a
ministerial position. However, he would be amenable to
serving on an ad-hoc basis or involving economic development.
He claimed to have a good working relationship with Yar'Adua.

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Comment
--------------


13. (C) Attah, Duke, and Udenwa expressed similar concerns
about the elections: INEC appeared unprepared and slow at
getting ready. None of the three are fans of President
Obasanjo so their comments have to be seen in this light.
However, their remarks are representative of a significant
segment of the PDP. Many figures are disenchanted by how the
party conducted the primaries. They remain in the party so
as not to incur the President's wrath for having defected.
However, they would feel no hesitation to undermine the
President's plans to extend in office or swing the
presidential election to Yar'Adua if they can do so by
subterfuge or indirection. End Comment.

BROWNE