SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST NIGERIAN POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000261 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH SAO PAOLO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2016 TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI SUBJECT: SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST NIGERIAN POLITICAL VIOLENCE CONNECTED TO LOCAL RACES REF: ABUJA 630 LAGOS 00000261 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B and D) ¶1. (C) Summary: Political violence in the South has been connected to acrimonious local races. The police have been biased against the opposition, and the opposition anticipates the military will show similar bias. The violence has concentrated in the Southwest because of the tight races between the incumbent People's Democratic Party (PDP) governors and the relatively well-organized oppositQn. Southeast violence has been relatively light, though the opposition has threatened mass protests if the ruling party manipulates the elections. End summary. -------------- Political Violence Largely Local in Nature -------------- ¶2. (C) In a conversation on April 10, Professor Adeolu Durotoye, Lecturer aQthe University of Ibadan, told Poloff the violence will likely be a result of acrimonious local races, rather than the presidential race. Most other interlocutors have made a similar distinction. ¶3. (C) Durotoye attributed much of the violence to the patronage system in local economies where government is the major if not the lone economic agent of any consequence. The patronage system has closely tied the patron and his partisans to the success of their local politicians. So with livelihoods at stake, the tendency to resort to extreme measures becomes more likely. In addition, Durotoye noted violence has long been a feature of Nigerian politics. -------------- Police and Military Seen as Biased -------------- ¶4. (C) The police have been unable to curb this violence. Instead, the police have been seen as siding with the ruling party and targeting the opposition, Durotoye noted. To cite a recent example, after a March 9 fracas between People's Democratic Party (PDP) and All Nigerian People's Party (ANPP) members, the Ogun State police arrested ANPP gubernatorial candidate Ibikunle Amosun and 24 partisans on charges of willful destruction of property. No PDP members were charged. ¶5. (U) The Federal Government's announcement it would deploy troops for the election has heightened opposition fears. According to the announcement, soldiers would be deployed to strategic areas. These include the southern states of Lagos, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, Ekiti, Edo, Abia, Anambra, and Rivers, according to one source. This proposed deployment, if correct, would give five of the six states in the Southwest, two states in the Southeast, and Rivers and in the South-South under heightened military presence. -------------- Southwest Violence Connected to Tight Races -------------- ¶6. (C) Political violence has been pronounced in the Southwest, and has been largely connected to the fight by incumbent governors to stay in power in the face of determined, well-known opposition, Durotoye said. Except for Action Congress (AC) Governor Bola Tinubu the other sitting governors were unpopular, Durotoye remarked. In addition, the AC has proven a strong opposition to the People's Democratic Party (PDP) in the zone. This has compelled the PDP governors to instigate violence to intimidate the opposition, Durotoye said. ¶7. (C) The opposition has not stood idly by. In what Durotoye describes as the "balance of terror", the opposition has often retaliated with violence. This type of violence LAGOS 00000261 002.2 OF 002 has been seen in all Southwest states. However, with the police backing the ruling party, this "balance of terror" is heavily weighted toward the PDP. -- In Ondo State, with a heated gubernatorial election, on March 26 gunmen reportedly stormed the Labour Party (LP) secretariat in Ondo town. While the LP charged the gunmen SIPDIS were PDP supporters, the PDP responded the LP had targeted its supporters in town. The LP candidate Olusegun Mimiko has accused the police of harassing his supporters. -- In Oyo State's capital Ibadan, a hotbed for violence, three persons were reportedly killed after an April 1 clash between supporters of the AC and the PDP. -- In Osun State, the camps of the two main candidates, PDP Governor Olagunsoye Oyinlola and AC gubernatorial candidate Rauf Aregbesola, have traded charges of political violence since last year. A recent fracas on April 9 continued the charges and countercharges between the two sides. -------------- Southeast Relatively Peaceful, for Now -------------- ¶8. (C) The Southeast has been relatively peaceful. Te Southeast region, dominated by the PDP, has not seen violence to the extent of the Southwest because the races are not considered close, Durotoye said. Osita Ogbu, Executive Director of the Centre for the Advancement of Law and Democracy, noted that in 2003 the violence in the Southeast was high. This time the opposition is weaker and the PDP even stronger. BROWNE