LAGOS GOVERNOR SAYS ELECTIONS PREPARATION IS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000259

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: LAGOS GOVERNOR SAYS ELECTIONS PREPARATION IS
NON-EXISTENT


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Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: In an April 9 meeting with the Consul
General, Lagos State Governor Bola Tinubu said the
Independent Electoral Commission's (INEC) preparations for
the April 14 gubernatorial elections in Lagos State were
essentially non-existent. He claimed the People's Democratic
Party (PDP) planned to rig the election. He suggested
President Obasanjo's strategy was to cause sufficient chaos
in the gubernatorial elections to establish a pretext for
postponing the presidential elections. In spite of grave
problems with the electoral process, Tinubu stated the
important thing was to achieve an outcome that reflected
political reality to a significant degree. Tinubu could
accept a result that gave the PDP more victories than a fair
election would warrant but one where opposition strongholds
-- such as Lagos and Kano States -- were respected. Tinubu
said he would advise Vice President Atiku to back the PDP's
Yar'Adua so as not to give the President another rationale to
delay the presidential elections. End summary.

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INEC Is Woefully Unprepared
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2. (C) In an April 9 meeting with the Consul General, Lagos
State Governor Bola Tinubu said the Independent Electoral
Commission's (INEC) preparations for the April 14
gubernatorial elections were woeful. Voter registration lists
had not been published and were likely non-existent, INEC had
not hired staff, and the commission had not begun to set up
polling locations. Moreover, no one has seen a sample of the
actual ballots nor had ballot boxes been sighted, decried
Tinubu. As a result, he concluded, there was no chance the
gubernatorial election would be credible. Tinubu was told by
State Security Service (SSS) contacts that many of the ballot
boxes that would be delivered to polling locations would
already have been stuffed with executed ballots. Furthermore,
there had been a recent shake-up in the police hierarchy,
where promotions were given to those who vowed to participate
in manipulating the vote.

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Obasanjo Is Maneuvering To Postpone The Presidential Election
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3. (C) Tinubu alleged President Obasanjo's plan was to hold
gubernatorial elections on the 14th. However, once all the
problems came to light, Obasanjo would postpone the
presidential election, ostensibly in order to prepare
adequately. This ploy would allow Obasanjo to remain in
office while existing governors and the Vice President would
leave office, offered Tinubu. Obasanjo then would be free to
prosecute the Vice President and those governors Obasanjo
considered adversarial, as they would have been shorn of
constitutional immunity. Tinubu saw this as a personal
vendetta by Obasanjo to make those who rankled him pay dearly
for his displeasure. However, he said Obasanjo would meet
stiffer than expected resistance: some of the governors,
himself included, were ready to counter Obasanjo strongly,
thus implying public demonstrations and civil disobedience
that could degenerate into something more coarse.


4. (C) Implicit in Tinubu's scenario is that the People's
Democratic Party (PDP) intended on "winning" too many
gubernatorial seats, including places where the PDP is weak.
This would create grave problems, warned Tinubu. However, he
continued, if the PDP played its cards wisely, it would allow
the Action Congress (AC),All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP),
and All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) to win in places
where those parties were strong. This would allow the PDP to
retain an ample majority of gubernatorial seats without
provoking strong reactions from opposition parties, suggested
Tinubu. The presidential election could then take place
unimpeded. The AC following in the South would not cause a
stir if the PDP's Yar'Adua won in a tilted exercise, Tinubu

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postulated.

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Tinubu Rejects AC, ANPP Alliance
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5. (C) Tinubu stressed he had no qualms about PDP
presidential candidate Umaru Yar'Adua winning the election.
Yet, Tinubu was adamantly opposed to ANPP presidential
candidate Muhammadu Buhari. In a recent news story, Buhari
called the PDP government 'fascist'. Tinubu sarcastically
mentioned that he would take Buhari's ephitet as being
accurate, for who better to identify a fascist than another
one.


6. (C) Tinubu vociferously opposed an AC-ANPP alliance. There
was virtually no chance Vice President and AC presidential
candidate Atiku Abubakar would be allowed to run for office,
said Tinubu. Obasanjo would simply not permit it. Thus,
Tinubu planned to ask Atiku to admit defeat gracefully and
support Yar'Adua. This would eliminate excuses for President
Obasanjo to extend his time in office. The immediate goal,
argued Tinubu, was to get Obasanjo out of office. Once
Yar'Adua was in the presidential seat, Obasanjo's influence
would wane quickly. Although the electoral process would be
gross, the end result in that case would be digestible as
long as the opposition parties won enough gubernatorial slots
as well.

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Comment
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7. (C) Tinubu is clearheaded about the quality of elections
preparations. Short of providential intervention, there is
little chance INEC will be adequately prepared to conduct
elections in Lagos State and other states in Southern Nigeria
we have recently visited (septels). Tinubu is also likely
correct in that the political elite, including members of the
opposition, would accept a flawed process as long as the
results somewhat reflected political realities. For Tinubu,
those realities are that Obasanjo's unpopularity and his
vindictiveness mean that the President should not remain in
office one moment beyond the May 29 term expiry and that
opposition parties should see a net gain in the gubernatorial
seats although the PDP could maintain a majority. However,
Tinubu does not expect that this will be the result. If it is
not, there will likely be some level of disturbance in places
where the opposition is strong yet the electoral outcome did
not reflect opposition puissance.


8. (C) With regard to Atiku supporting Yar'Adua, this seems a
tough sell. It would require Atiku sacrificing his pride and
position for what Tinubu sees as an overall strategic good.
It has been unusual for any of the major politicians to place
the common good over their own amibitions; we see no reason
why Atiku would break this trend at this late date. End
comment.




BROWNE