ABIA STATE GOVERNOR RACE HAS NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000254

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DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY
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ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: ABIA STATE GOVERNOR RACE HAS NATIONAL IMPLICATIONS

REF: 06 LAGOS 1396

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Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B and D)


1. (C) Summary: Poloff's visit to Abia State on March 29
showed a tight gubernatorial race. Obasanjo adversary
Governor Orji Kalu steered the the Progressive People's
Alliance (PPA) nomination to his Chief of Staff Theodore
Orji, but Orji faces a tough challenge from People's
Democratic Party (PDP) candidate Onyema Ugochukwu. This is a
battle of proxies. The real competition is between Kalu and
the national PDP, personified by President Obasanjo. It is a
contest to see whether the maverick Kalu, who broke away from
the PDP, can hold Abia against a determined PDP. End summary.

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PPA: We Have the Organization to Win
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2. (C) On March 29, Poloff visited Umuahia, the capital of
Abia State. Progressive People's Alliance (PPA)
Administrative Secretary Richard Nwogbara boasted that the
party continued to grow nationally. Governor Orji Kalu's
presidential campaign was going well, as the Governor had
shown strength in Abia, Lagos and Akwa Ibom. PPA's primary
opposition in Abia was the People's Democratic Party (PDP),
which had been bolstered by an influx of members from the All
Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA).


3. (C) Eze Emeka Onuoha, Abia State PPA Chairman, painted a
similar rosy story. PPA gubernatorial candidate Theodore
Orji, former Chief of Staff to Kalu, has no electoral
experience but managed Abia State with the Governor for seven
years. In that time Kalu built roads, hospitals, and created
scholarship programs, Onuoha claimed. In contrast, PDP
candidate Onyema Ugochukwu, former Niger Delta Development
Commission (NDDC) Chairman, did nothing for Abia State,
Onuoha remarked. Ugochukwu did not want to leave the
lucrative NDDC but was pushed by the PDP to run for Abia
Governor. Even now, Ugochukwu is not taking the campaign
seriously. In Onuoha's estimation, the All Nigerian People's
Party (ANPP) candidate Ikechi Emenike is an underrated
darkhorse.


4. (C) Onuoha told Poloff that Kalu moved the entire Abia
PDP party structure to the PPA. The PPA will have its agents
in all the polling booths, who will ensure the vote is
counted accurately. All the PPA is asking is to allow the
populace to determine the election, Onuoha said. If there is
an attempt to manipulate the vote, the masses will rise in
opposition, Onuoha predicted.

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Kalu's Spotty Performance as Governor Hurts PPA
-------------- --


5. (C) While some Igbos see Kalu as their champion, others
claim Kalu has done little to justify the presidency. Uche
Nwosu, correspondent for the Daily Independent, had no
encomiums for Governor Kalu or his party. Kalu, Nwosu
observed, accomplished little for the state while pursuing
his national ambitions.


6. (C) Upon Kalu's election people expected a lot, but for
the most part Kalu has failed to deliver, Nwosu commented.
The roads Kalu built have broken down, and while power
shortages are commonplace Kalu did little to alleviate them.
Kalu failed to establish basic land rules, and has
accomplished no major projects, Nwosu remarked. Criticizing
with faint praise, Nwosu said Kalu's greatest accomplishment
was steering the local football club to victory in the
Confederation of African Football (CAF) Cup. Nwosu added that
Kalu's mother Eunice was the most powerful person in the
State, affecting most decisions and controlling the awarding
of contracts. As a result of this perceived lack of
achievement, Kalu has seen his popularity fall precipitously.

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EFCC Goes After Kalu Through His Allies
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7. (C) Kalu's feud with Obasanjo is well-known, Nwosu
observed, and the Federal Government wanted to break Kalu.
The Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) targeted
the Governor's mother Eunice Kalu, who has supposedly fled to
the Benin Republic. Kalu's candidate Orji also felt the
scrutiny of the EFCC when he was arrested on charges that as
Chief of Staff he transferred 2.8 billion naira
(approximately $21.9 million) in Local Government Council
(LGC) funds to Kalu's private company Slok Airlines. LGC
Chairmen said they were given 18-20 million but the account
recorded 100 million naira, Nwosu said. Since his arrest,
Orji has done little campaigning since. (Comment: LGC funds
are notorious targets for graft. The EFCC is investigating
charges of theft of LGC funds in Enugu by the Commissioner
for Local Government. End comment)

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APGA Weakening, ANPP Strengthening,
but PDP Favored to Win
--------------


8. (C) Nwosu gauged APGA gubernatorial candidate Uzodinma
Okpara, son of the revered Igbo leader Michael Okpara, as
having no chance of winning in Abia. The former state PDP
Chairman, Okpara joined APGA in 2006. While Okpara can woo
voters who remember his father, he has no money. Nwosu
observed that before 2003, APGA was very strong, but the PDP
Governors saw APGA as a threat to their hold on power and
have done a great deal to enervate that party in the
intervening years.


9. (C) Nwosu predicted Ugochukwu would win the Abia
governorship, though he said ANPP candidate Emenike was
popular and had a chance to pull the upset. Ugochukwu had
gained some trust with the voters, Nwosu said, but more
importantly Abia voters wanted to vote for a candidate in
tune with the national party. Although Ugochukwu did not
steer projects to Abia as NDDC Chairman, he still
accomplished more than the current NDDC chair. Given the
stakes, Nwosu predicted the election would be rigged, and he
thought there was the strong possibility of violence.

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Comment
--------------


10. (C) The Abia State governor's race is worth watching, in
order to follow the political career of the colorful and
controversial Kalu. It is possibly the closest gubernatorial
race in the Southeast, and is a test of Kalu's ability to
remain a player in Southeast politics. The gubernatorial
race could go to either the PDP or PPA, though the ANPP and
APGA have a chance and will draw significant votes. Kalu's
political power would be severely weakened if he loses Abia
to the PDP. Voting irregularities and political violence
will likely occur. The story will bore down to which party,
PDP or PPA, had best been able to deploy their operations in
order to influence the vote count after the ballots have been
cast. End comment.
BROWNE