ANAMBRA STATE ELECTIONS: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000227

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
DOE FOR CAROLYN GAY
WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAOLO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI
SUBJECT: ANAMBRA STATE ELECTIONS: PRESIDENTIAL ADVISOR
LIKELY TO BE THE NEXT GOVERNOR

REF: 06 LAGOS 1292

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Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary: A visit by Poloffs to Anambra State on
March 6 showed the political scene remains volatile but
People's Democratic Party (PDP) candidate and Special
Presidential Advisor Andy Uba has the upper hand in the race
for the gubernatorial ticket. To bolster his chances, he
likely has been behind the effort to disqualify his two most
formidable opponents, Action Congress (AC) candidate and
former Governor Chris Ngige and Governor Peter Obi of the All
Progresives Grand Alliance (APGA). Nevertheless, Anambra
remains unpredictable. Uba and his younger brother Chris
have initiated a tough brand of political behavior which they
might no longer monopolize and which could lead to unrest and
violence in the State as the elections approach. End summary.

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Visit to Anambra
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2. (U) On March 6, Poloff visited Awka, the capital of
Anambra State. Home of the late Igbo leader Nnamdi Azikiwe,
All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) presidential candidate
Chukwuemeka Ojukwu, and the novelist Chinua Achebe, Anambra
has always been politically active and a bellwether of
politics in the Southeast.

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APGA's Unhappy Interlude in Power
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3. (C) Governor Peter Obi of APGA gained sympathy when he
fought for three years, from 2003 to 2006, to obtain the
mandate taken from him by election rigging. In 2006, the
Courts finally agreed with Obi, giving him the coveted
gubernatorial seat. Obi had grand ideas to improve the
State. Obi, the former Chairman of Fidelity Bank, attracted
the interest of the World Bank and international development
organizations. However, Vanguard correspondent Anayo Okoni
told Poloff while Obi had "good and very noble ideas", he
proved to be an aloof and awkward politician. Moreover, he
declined to distribute patronage as liberally as had been the
custom. Obi's popularity slipped with some Anambrans and as
supporters in his own party, who would have benefited from
any largesse with state funds, became disenchanted.
According to Okoni, Obi is still popular in churches and with
the populace.


4. (C) Upon Obi's ascension, Chris Uba began to undermine
his administration by stoking violence in parts of the State.
Uba's aim was to discredit Obi and thus pave the way for
older brother Andy. But when Chris schemed to become
Governor himself, Andy foiled his brother's plan and Chris
fled to Enugu, according to Action Congress (AC) Chairman
Ndubisi Nwobu. The State Assembly's subsequent impeachment
of Obi in October paralyzed Anambra for weeks, Okoni said.


5. (C) Deputy Governor Virginia Etiaba stepped in to the
governorship post in November, but was a political neophyte
and rumored to be an ally of Uba although she was in APGA.
Etiaba, a former schoolmaster at a prestigious private
school, let her two sons, both attorneys, run the State,
Okoni said. Etiaba, in her brief tenure, became subject to
controversy when she tried to endear herself to the State
Assembly by approving the purchase of Peugeot cars for each
Anambra legislator. Etiaba defended her action by claiming
that Obi approved the purchase before his impeachment; but
Obi insisted he never consented to the purchase. Observers
suspected the Peugeot cars were Etiaba's reward to the
legislators for impeaching Obi, Okoni said. (Comment: Etiaba
and her two sons were also accused of signing and padding a
significant number of government contracts during her rather
brief tenure. End comment.)

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6. (U) Upon his reinstatement in February, Obi petitioned
the courts to cancel the Anambra gubernatorial election
because, under the constitution he was entitled to serve a
four-year term but had only served several months. Hedging
his bet on the court case, APGA has allowed Obi to take
Etiaba's place on the Anambra gubernatorial ballot. So far
INEC has disapproved the replacement of Etiaba with Obi.

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Uba Campaigns as a Good Guy Politician
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7. (C) Okoni told Poloff that most Anambrans are apathetic
to Uba. While Andy's brother Chris has a notorious
reputation in the State, Andy is known because of his
closeness to President Obasanjo but is considered somewhat of
an outsider to Anambra internal politics, Okoni said. Uba
never spent much time in Anambra, but in the past few months
has made a public effort to alter his image. Uba has
campaigned all over the State, demonstrating power and pomp
in particular during his visits to the remote villages.
Although this may be difficult for veteran political
observers to believe, Okoni told Poloff, Uba has come across
as a "genuinely nice guy".


8. (C) Executive Director for the Advancement of Democracy
and the Rule of Law Osita Ogbu told Poloff that people have
no passion for Uba but are supporting him because they assume
he will win. According to Ogbu, Uba faked his curriculum
vitae and lied about his PhD and university degree from
Canada. (Comment: Uba is backed by many prominent friends.
His campaign is being financed by some of Nigeria's top
bankers, businessmen and current People's Democratic Party
(PDP) governors. End comment.)

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Uba Uses INEC to Disqualify Main Opponents
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9. (C) Despite Uba's efforts, Okoni predicted either Obi or
AC candidate and former Governor Chris Ngige would win in a
free and fair election. However, neither may have the chance
to prove their electoral mettle. The Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) disqualified both Obi and Ngige.
The opposition, noting that Uba originally recommended
Maurice Iwu to President Obasanjo as INEC Chairman, has
alleged the presidency is using INEC to clear the pathway for
Uba. Okoni told Poloff that Iwu and the National INEC are
deciding whom to disqualify in Anambra. The Anambra INEC
Resident Commissioner only collects documents and sends them
to Abuja, Okoni said.

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APGA in Disarray, as Old Feuds Fester
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10. (C) When Poloff asked about the factions within APGA,
Okoni said the PDP is backing Chekwas Okorie faction's appeal
of the court decision that previously recognized the Victor
Umeh faction as the legitimate APGA. Okoni speculated that
while the PDP was trying to weakend APGA since it viewed
APGA, a predominantly Igbo party, as the most formidable
threat.


11. (C) Okoni predicted the elections in Anambra would not
be free and fair. Even if Obi and Ngige cannot run, All
Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) candidate Nicholas Ukachukwu
has a significant constituency, Okoni told Poloff. (Note: On
March 10, INEC even excluded Ukachukwu from its list of
candidates, for the time being giving Uba a situation that
comes as close to an uncontested election as one can set.
However, Ukachukwu obtained a Federal High Court order
mandating his inclusion. The case remains in the courts.
End note.) Okoni said that in 2003 the PDP was careless how

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it manipulated the vote tally, while Obi made a careful count
and presented it to bolster his court case. The PDP would
not repeat the same mistakes this time, Okoni predicted.

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The AC Defends Ngige, Warns of Possible Violence
-------------- ---


12. (C) Poloff met AC officials to discuss their candidate
Chris Ngige. Ngige remained under scrutiny by the Economic
and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) on charges he stole 3
billion naira as Governor (approximately $23.4 million).
INEC disqualified him on the EFCC charges, and claimed Ngige
failed to submit a nomination form and did not attend the
verification exercise. Fred Chukwuelobe, Director of
Publicity for Ngige, handed Poloff a three-page document
claiming Ngige complied with INEC regulations, and the state
INEC accepted Ngige's nomination but was overruled by INEC
National Chairman Iwu, a close friend of Uba. Chukwuelobe
told Poloff that Ngige was in Anambra, though he had not
campaigned publicly out of fear of being arrested. (Comment:
Ngige is a unique personality and Anambra a unique state. It
takes such a unique combination to produce a gubernatorial
candidate, who believes he is a fugitive and thus cannot
publicly campaign, yet who believes he has a credible claim
at victory. End comment)


13. (C) AC Chairman Ndubisi Nwobu told Poloff Uba was behind
Ngige's disqualification. According to Nwobu, Uba was trying
to disqualify all formidable opposition because he would lose
an open election. Uba also wants the Anambra governorship to
get immunity for himself for misdeeds he committed as the
President's most special Special Advisor, Nwobu said. The
PDP had already bought off INEC and was trying to bribe
anyone they could. However, once Uba has to recoup his
expenses, the people would lose, Nwobu predicted. Nwobu said
Uba has a checkered personal history, noting that Uba was
supposed to declare $90,000 worth of goods which he exported
from the U.S. Uba failed to declare until he was caught by
U.S. Customs.


14. (C) All of poloff's contacts said Ngige improved
conditions in Anambra during his stint as governor and gained
popularity because of his achievements, despite his admission
that he obtained office through electoral fraud. Nwobu,
expressing confidence in the judiciary, told Poloff that if
the PDP manipulated the results the AC would go to the courts
for redress. Nwobu said however, that he could not predict
the people's reaction to a rigged election. He thought there
was a possibility the PDP would use violence to suppress the
opposition parties.

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Comment
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15. (C) While our interlocutors had their own biased angles
they were playing, what they stated generally fits Post's
analysis. The Uba family's meddling in Anambran politics is
proverbial. Because he has the force of the federal
government, ruling party and national business elite behind
him, Uba has the inside track for the election. However, his
popular support is neither wide nor deep. INEC has buffeted
and thus far disqualified Uba's major opposition. If Obi and
Ngige cannot get judicial relief so that they are on the
ballot, Uba will certainly win. If they get on the ballot,
the question will then become whether they have the
wherewithal to force what appears to be a biased INEC to
count the vote accurately. End comment.

BROWNE