DELTA FLASH POINTS: INCREASING VOLATILITY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000191 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/22/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: DELTA FLASH POINTS: INCREASING VOLATILITY REF: LAGOS 44 LAGOS 00000191 001.4 OF 002 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: In a February 22 conversation with the Consul General, Financial Derivatives Managing Director Bismarck Rewane described Niger Delta that had an increasing number of unstable flash points. Ijaw militant groups were proliferating and each offshoot was becoming more unruly and unpredictable as if there were a logarithmic progression determining the miscreancy of these groups. A member of the Itsekiri royalty in Warri, Rewane warned that this conflictual dynamic was nearing the breaking point. End summary. ¶2. (C) During a February 22 conversation with the Consul General, Financial Derivatives Managing Director Bismarck Rewane lamented the Niger Delta had achieved an unprecedented level of volatility. Ijaw militants were fragmented since the imprisonment of militant leader Dokubo Asari, according to Rewane. Asari, detained by the GON for treason, had been able to control the militants and Asari himself was not an extremist. Asari talked big but acted small, said Rewane. Instead of stymying the militants, the captureQf Asari actually freed them of the restraint that Asari had imposed. Now, there was an irruption of independent militant groups formed by men once under Asari's command. Each group was now trying to out do the other, leading to an escalation of kidnappings and violence. At one point, freeing Asari would have helped normalize the situation, Rewane asserted. However, the GON tarried too long. Now, although the groups continue to demand Asari's freedom as a price the GON must pay for the cessation of their disruptive activities, Rewane predicted that Asari would no longer be able to reassert control even if freed. -------------- Shunned Political Hopefuls Are Stewing -------------- ¶3. (C) Compounding instability in the Delta, Niger Delta Development Commission (NDDC) Executive Director Timi Alaibe was disgruntled after being pressured by President Obasanjo to abandon his gubernatorial ambitions in Bayelsa State. Alaibe has large coffers at his disposal and has connections to groups of trouble makers in the region. Alaibe can raise significant amounts of dust if his political ambitions are not somehow sated. He joins a list of politicians, including Rivers State Governor Peter Odili and Cross River Governor Donald Duke, who were frustrated by President Obasanjo's inscrutable political actions during the PDP primaries. These governors, especially Odili, can stir unrest in their states if they feel sufficiently wounded by President Obasanjo's decision. -------------- Anger Over Gas Project -------------- Q -------------- ¶4. (C) Ethnic groups in Delta State were incensed by the ethno-political maneuvering that determined the location of the Olokola Liquified Natural Gas Project (OKLNG) Project. The project, originally sited in Delta State, was repositioned to neighboring Ondo State when President Obasanjo redrew geographical boundaries between the two states, Rewane said. This extra-constitutional measure has effectively relocated this important piece of real estate and several Itsekiri villages to Yoruba-dominated Ondo State. This resource-influenced gerrymandering will deprive Delta State of much-needed revenue and give the revenue to Yorubaland although the gas does not come from Yorubaland. Rewane said inhabitants of the Delta view this as a display of crass ethnic chauvinism by President Obasanjo, a Yoruba. Because of this, the Warri-based Ijaw militant group, FNDIC, has vowed to impede construction of the pipeline to Ondo, maintained Rewane. This is one of the few things on which the Ijaw and Itsekiri of Delta State agree, he added. LAGOS 00000191 002.2 OF 002 -------------- -------------- List of Flashpoints Is Long: Ijaws and Itsekiri In Upheaval -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) A major flashpoint in Ijaw-Itsekiri relations has been the endorsement of Delta State Secretary Emmanuel Uduaghan by the People's Democratic Party for Delta State Governor, Rewane said. Uduaghan, an Itsekiri, was tabbed by his cousin, Delta Governor James Ibori, an Urhobo, as gubernatorial candidate (ref). Rewane stated that Ibori had not done the Itsekiri any favors by touting Uduaghan. First, this would only anger the Ijaw, thus placing the Itsekiri in the "eye of the storm". Second, Uduaghan was not well respected among the Itsekiri elite. Consequently, few Itsekiri of any stature have fully backed Uduaghan despite Ibori's monetary enticements. Nonetheless, Rewane bemoaned the likelihood of unrest and conflict between the two groups due to Uduaghan's candidacy were distinctly possible. -------------- Itsekiri Power Structure Is Crumbling -------------- ¶6. (C) Further compounding the turbidity of Delta State politics, the traditional power structure of the Itsekiri ethnic group was crumbling, according to Rewane. The hierarchy that once characterized the Itsekiri community no longer effectively united the community and mediated conflict, lamented Rewane. In the past, the Olu of Warri, the leading Itsekiri ruler, consulted widely with his chiefs before making decisions on behalf of the community. Everyone looked up to the Olu, who remained aloof from most mundane affairs. However, recounted Rewane, the current Olu has belittled himself by hustling for government contracts. Now the Olu, members of his court, and ordinary citizens are engaged in open competition with one another to win contracts from government and companies operating in the region. This had resulted in intra-ethnic fragmentation, warned Rewane. ¶7. (S) This instability is exacerbated by the fact that the Olu is ill, Rewane confided. Rewane said news about the Olu's illness was closely guarded but the Olu had not been seen in public in the past six months. The future of the Olu was a key concern, Rewane observed, because there was no succession mechanism currently in place. The Olu had not reconstituted the Council of Elders, who would choose the next king. Furthermore, the contestants who vied for the crown in 1987 still lurk on the scene, said Rewane. They would battle fiercely for the crown upon hearing of the Olu's weakened state. (Note: In Itsekiri tradition, the Olu is not allowed to die a natural death. When terminally ill, the Olu is executed. End note.) Rewane noted that the previous two interregna in Itsekiri history were marred by bloody conflict. Thus, if the Olu is very ill, Rewane expects a period of intra-Itsekiri upheaval in Warri. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Comment: Rewane's insights into the Itsekiri community and the Niger Delta are troubling, as they describe a downward spiral that could result in sustained violent unrest. End comment. BROWNE