UTOMI: OBASANJO MUST STEP DOWN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000175 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: UTOMI: OBASANJO MUST STEP DOWN LAGOS 00000175 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (a, b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary: The Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) debacle may provide the National Assembly the impeachment fodder necessary to ensure President Obasanjo departs the presidency, said Patrick Utomi, presidential candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The threat of Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) indictments has stopped PDP spoilers from leaving the party until the eleventh hour, right before the election. Utomi knows the odds are against him but feels he has maintained a credible presence in the race and could make a good showing, particularly in the south-south and south-east, come election day. End Summary. -------------- -------------- PTDF "GIFT" TO FORCE OBASANJO OUT; FEW OTHER OPTIONS REMAIN -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) The overarching objective of this election is to ensure President Obasanjo leaves the Villa, Presidential candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC),Patrick Utomi, told AF/W Director Phillip Carter on March 2. After visiting Abuja in late February, Utomi said there was "some sense" in the capital that a transition must take place. However, for this to occur, President Obasanjo must be convinced that his time is up and that the transition will not involve Vice President Atiku. Obasanjo will go to almost any lengths to deny Atiku the Presidency, observed Utomi. ¶3. (C) The Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF) debacle is an opportunity to Nigeria as it could lead to the impeachment of both Obasanjo and Atiku, thereby ensuring that the President departs office. However, Utomi considered this a sad development that such a drastic measure might be required to assure the President's departure. -------------- -------------- UTOMI'S SUPPORT BASE: CHRISTIANS, NIGER DELTA, AND BUSINESS -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) Nigerian Christians, including those comprising a significant minority in northern Nigeria, support his candidacy, the ADC candidate asserted. Utomi considers Christians and the religious grassroots movement his primary support base. As such, Utomi said he does not need "the kind of money they (the PDP) need" to campaign and reach the masses. For example, Utomi received an endorsement from popular Nigerian Pastor Chris Oyakhilome, which provided him the additional bonus of speaking at a rally attended by 60,000 youths at the Lagos Stadium. ¶5. (C) This leads to the second support base Utomi believes he enjoys--the young voters. Niger Delta youths have told him they think he is a strong, legitimate candidate. Utomi is an Igbo but from the Niger Delta and therefore believes he has the support of both regions. Utomi posited that if he can take the south-east and south-south, he can walk through the middle of the elections while other candidates and parties duel. ¶6. (C) Utomi, Director of the prestigious Lagos Business School, is also supported by Nigerian business elite; however, they cannot openly support him and risk their relations with those currently in power. If there is a runoff election or tie-breaker and Utomi's name is not in the mix, the Director of the Stock Exchange told Utomi on February 25, many in the economic elite will find themselves at risk. The Director said Utomi is supportive of liberal, free markets. ¶7. (C) However, a return of Buhari to power would be the beginning of the end of economic reform. The northern establishment is committed to dismantling the current system and stripping the economic elite of their fortunes, returning power to Buhari and the north. The hope of northern power brokers that consensus in the north would pressure Atiku and former military ruler General Muhammadu Buhari, running under LAGOS 00000175 002.2 OF 003 the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP),to overcome their differences and band together is fading. Atiku and Buhari are "fighting like cats and dogs" and Utomi thought any alliance unlikely. Another option, that Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) step in, has receded because Obasanjo cleverly scheduled a mission in Guinea to get him out of the country in order to bide time, Utomi purported. -------------- -------------- CAMPAIGN CHALLENGES: AVOID LABELS, PROTEST ELECTION RIGGING -------------- -------------- ¶8. (C) Although he claimed widespread support among the Igbos, Christians, and south-south, he did not want to be a "constituent of his constituents" by being labeled the Igbo or Christian or south-south candidate because each label would risk repelling its opposite segment of the population. Instead, he wanted to be seen as a candidate who was known and popular across the length and breadth of the country as someone passionate about Nigeria as a whole, not just a particular slice of it. To do this and to make his campaign effective, Utomi has hired a campaign team from Washington DC which also worked on the elections in the Ukraine. The media is opening up, but is still very corrupt, Utomi said. ¶9. (C) Additionally, Utomi is working with Lagos Governor Bola Tinubu to begin 30,000-strong street protests prior to the elections. These protests would occur every other day for two to three weeks as a pre-emptive warning against election rigging. Utomi believes foul play during the elections would be easy given the state of voter registration and unpublished voter lists. For instance, Utomi was doubtful that 61.3 million people registered to vote, as the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman Maurice Iwu claims. -------------- -------------- PDP SPOILERS HALTED BY THREAT OF EFCC PROSECUTIONS -------------- -------------- ¶10. (C) Utomi speculated the threat of an Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) investigation will sufficiently intimidate would-be PDP defectors from leaving the party. Many PDP governors are less than satisfied with the conduct of the national convention and recent candidacy announcements. Utomi said he expected quite a few snubbed governors to leave the PDP at the eleventh hour. Governor Donald Duke of Cross River State is angry enough to state at a public event in Calabar recently "If the best man comes from another party, I have the duty to vote for him," Utomi stated. But regardless of how quietly other disgruntled PDP governors wait before the elections, Utomi laughed, Obasanjo will go after them in the period between elections and the May 29 presidential inauguration. ¶11. (C) Utomi praised EFFC Chairman Mallam Nuhu Ribadu's work and said that if victorious, he would retain Ribadu. Utomi considers Ribadu a passionate man who believes in what he is doing. -------------- MILITARY DOES NOT SUPPORT A COUP -------------- ¶12. (C) On March 2 a Naval Captain told Utomi the Navy is "not stupid," is watching the political scene, and prays someone like Utomi will rule Nigeria. Military rule was not an attractive option, the Captain said, as soldiers want Nigeria to be run well. ¶13. (S) On February 26, former Minister of Defense Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma also told Utomi that military intervention was unlikely and that military rule would not be good for Nigeria. However, if a coup occurred, it would not be a "staying thing" or long-term solution, the former Minister posited. Utomi was told such a move would most likely be done to stabilize the nation so that an honest election could be held and someone like Utomi would be elected six months later. LAGOS 00000175 003.2 OF 003 -------------- COMMENT -------------- ¶14. (C) Utomi's desire to see Obasanjo depart the Villa tracks with what other interlocutors have said. There is growing talk of impeaching the President as the only sure way to keep him from manipulating the system and to keep elections on schedule. Regarding the election, Utomi is obviously enjoying the campaign and thus we can excuse him if this had led him to overestimating his support. This malady is inherent in politics. At the end of the day, he is a long shot but one who has helped by making for a slightly more constructive issues-oriented campaign than otherwise would have occurred. End Comment. BROWNE