Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07LAGOS175
2007-03-12 15:00:00
SECRET
Consulate Lagos
Cable title:
UTOMI: OBASANJO MUST STEP DOWN
how-toVZCZCXRO2760 PP RUEHPA DE RUEHOS #0175/01 0711500 ZNY SSSSS ZZH P 121500Z MAR 07 FM AMCONSUL LAGOS TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8591 INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY RUEHUJA/AMEMBASSY ABUJA PRIORITY 8416 RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW PRIORITY 0187 RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ PRIORITY 0167 RUEHIT/AMCONSUL ISTANBUL PRIORITY 0168 RUEHSO/AMCONSUL SAO PAULO PRIORITY 0180 RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000175
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: UTOMI: OBASANJO MUST STEP DOWN
LAGOS 00000175 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (a, b and
d)
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 LAGOS 000175
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: UTOMI: OBASANJO MUST STEP DOWN
LAGOS 00000175 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (a, b and
d)
1. (C) Summary: The Petroleum Technology Development Fund
(PTDF) debacle may provide the National Assembly the
impeachment fodder necessary to ensure President Obasanjo
departs the presidency, said Patrick Utomi, presidential
candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The
threat of Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC)
indictments has stopped PDP spoilers from leaving the party
until the eleventh hour, right before the election. Utomi
knows the odds are against him but feels he has maintained a
credible presence in the race and could make a good showing,
particularly in the south-south and south-east, come election
day. End Summary.
-------------- --------------
PTDF "GIFT" TO FORCE OBASANJO OUT; FEW OTHER OPTIONS REMAIN
-------------- --------------
2. (C) The overarching objective of this election is to
ensure President Obasanjo leaves the Villa, Presidential
candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC),Patrick
Utomi, told AF/W Director Phillip Carter on March 2. After
visiting Abuja in late February, Utomi said there was "some
sense" in the capital that a transition must take place.
However, for this to occur, President Obasanjo must be
convinced that his time is up and that the transition will
not involve Vice President Atiku. Obasanjo will go to almost
any lengths to deny Atiku the Presidency, observed Utomi.
3. (C) The Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF)
debacle is an opportunity to Nigeria as it could lead to the
impeachment of both Obasanjo and Atiku, thereby ensuring that
the President departs office. However, Utomi considered this
a sad development that such a drastic measure might be
required to assure the President's departure.
-------------- --------------
UTOMI'S SUPPORT BASE: CHRISTIANS, NIGER DELTA, AND BUSINESS
-------------- --------------
4. (C) Nigerian Christians, including those comprising a
significant minority in northern Nigeria, support his
candidacy, the ADC candidate asserted. Utomi considers
Christians and the religious grassroots movement his primary
support base. As such, Utomi said he does not need "the kind
of money they (the PDP) need" to campaign and reach the
masses. For example, Utomi received an endorsement from
popular Nigerian Pastor Chris Oyakhilome, which provided him
the additional bonus of speaking at a rally attended by
60,000 youths at the Lagos Stadium.
5. (C) This leads to the second support base Utomi believes
he enjoys--the young voters. Niger Delta youths have told
him they think he is a strong, legitimate candidate. Utomi
is an Igbo but from the Niger Delta and therefore believes he
has the support of both regions. Utomi posited that if he
can take the south-east and south-south, he can walk through
the middle of the elections while other candidates and
parties duel.
6. (C) Utomi, Director of the prestigious Lagos Business
School, is also supported by Nigerian business elite;
however, they cannot openly support him and risk their
relations with those currently in power. If there is a
runoff election or tie-breaker and Utomi's name is not in the
mix, the Director of the Stock Exchange told Utomi on
February 25, many in the economic elite will find themselves
at risk. The Director said Utomi is supportive of liberal,
free markets.
7. (C) However, a return of Buhari to power would be the
beginning of the end of economic reform. The northern
establishment is committed to dismantling the current system
and stripping the economic elite of their fortunes, returning
power to Buhari and the north. The hope of northern power
brokers that consensus in the north would pressure Atiku and
former military ruler General Muhammadu Buhari, running under
LAGOS 00000175 002.2 OF 003
the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP),to overcome their
differences and band together is fading. Atiku and Buhari
are "fighting like cats and dogs" and Utomi thought any
alliance unlikely. Another option, that Ibrahim Babangida
(IBB) step in, has receded because Obasanjo cleverly
scheduled a mission in Guinea to get him out of the country
in order to bide time, Utomi purported.
-------------- --------------
CAMPAIGN CHALLENGES: AVOID LABELS, PROTEST ELECTION RIGGING
-------------- --------------
8. (C) Although he claimed widespread support among the
Igbos, Christians, and south-south, he did not want to be a
"constituent of his constituents" by being labeled the Igbo
or Christian or south-south candidate because each label
would risk repelling its opposite segment of the population.
Instead, he wanted to be seen as a candidate who was known
and popular across the length and breadth of the country as
someone passionate about Nigeria as a whole, not just a
particular slice of it. To do this and to make his campaign
effective, Utomi has hired a campaign team from Washington DC
which also worked on the elections in the Ukraine. The media
is opening up, but is still very corrupt, Utomi said.
9. (C) Additionally, Utomi is working with Lagos Governor
Bola Tinubu to begin 30,000-strong street protests prior to
the elections. These protests would occur every other day
for two to three weeks as a pre-emptive warning against
election rigging. Utomi believes foul play during the
elections would be easy given the state of voter registration
and unpublished voter lists. For instance, Utomi was
doubtful that 61.3 million people registered to vote, as the
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman
Maurice Iwu claims.
-------------- --------------
PDP SPOILERS HALTED BY THREAT OF EFCC PROSECUTIONS
-------------- --------------
10. (C) Utomi speculated the threat of an Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) investigation will
sufficiently intimidate would-be PDP defectors from leaving
the party. Many PDP governors are less than satisfied with
the conduct of the national convention and recent candidacy
announcements. Utomi said he expected quite a few snubbed
governors to leave the PDP at the eleventh hour. Governor
Donald Duke of Cross River State is angry enough to state at
a public event in Calabar recently "If the best man comes
from another party, I have the duty to vote for him," Utomi
stated. But regardless of how quietly other disgruntled PDP
governors wait before the elections, Utomi laughed, Obasanjo
will go after them in the period between elections and the
May 29 presidential inauguration.
11. (C) Utomi praised EFFC Chairman Mallam Nuhu Ribadu's
work and said that if victorious, he would retain Ribadu.
Utomi considers Ribadu a passionate man who believes in what
he is doing.
--------------
MILITARY DOES NOT SUPPORT A COUP
--------------
12. (C) On March 2 a Naval Captain told Utomi the Navy is
"not stupid," is watching the political scene, and prays
someone like Utomi will rule Nigeria. Military rule was not
an attractive option, the Captain said, as soldiers want
Nigeria to be run well.
13. (S) On February 26, former Minister of Defense
Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma also told Utomi that military
intervention was unlikely and that military rule would not be
good for Nigeria. However, if a coup occurred, it would not
be a "staying thing" or long-term solution, the former
Minister posited. Utomi was told such a move would most
likely be done to stabilize the nation so that an honest
election could be held and someone like Utomi would be
elected six months later.
LAGOS 00000175 003.2 OF 003
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
14. (C) Utomi's desire to see Obasanjo depart the Villa
tracks with what other interlocutors have said. There is
growing talk of impeaching the President as the only sure way
to keep him from manipulating the system and to keep
elections on schedule. Regarding the election, Utomi is
obviously enjoying the campaign and thus we can excuse him if
this had led him to overestimating his support. This malady
is inherent in politics. At the end of the day, he is a long
shot but one who has helped by making for a slightly more
constructive issues-oriented campaign than otherwise would
have occurred. End Comment.
BROWNE
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON
E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/12/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: UTOMI: OBASANJO MUST STEP DOWN
LAGOS 00000175 001.2 OF 003
Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (a, b and
d)
1. (C) Summary: The Petroleum Technology Development Fund
(PTDF) debacle may provide the National Assembly the
impeachment fodder necessary to ensure President Obasanjo
departs the presidency, said Patrick Utomi, presidential
candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The
threat of Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC)
indictments has stopped PDP spoilers from leaving the party
until the eleventh hour, right before the election. Utomi
knows the odds are against him but feels he has maintained a
credible presence in the race and could make a good showing,
particularly in the south-south and south-east, come election
day. End Summary.
-------------- --------------
PTDF "GIFT" TO FORCE OBASANJO OUT; FEW OTHER OPTIONS REMAIN
-------------- --------------
2. (C) The overarching objective of this election is to
ensure President Obasanjo leaves the Villa, Presidential
candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC),Patrick
Utomi, told AF/W Director Phillip Carter on March 2. After
visiting Abuja in late February, Utomi said there was "some
sense" in the capital that a transition must take place.
However, for this to occur, President Obasanjo must be
convinced that his time is up and that the transition will
not involve Vice President Atiku. Obasanjo will go to almost
any lengths to deny Atiku the Presidency, observed Utomi.
3. (C) The Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF)
debacle is an opportunity to Nigeria as it could lead to the
impeachment of both Obasanjo and Atiku, thereby ensuring that
the President departs office. However, Utomi considered this
a sad development that such a drastic measure might be
required to assure the President's departure.
-------------- --------------
UTOMI'S SUPPORT BASE: CHRISTIANS, NIGER DELTA, AND BUSINESS
-------------- --------------
4. (C) Nigerian Christians, including those comprising a
significant minority in northern Nigeria, support his
candidacy, the ADC candidate asserted. Utomi considers
Christians and the religious grassroots movement his primary
support base. As such, Utomi said he does not need "the kind
of money they (the PDP) need" to campaign and reach the
masses. For example, Utomi received an endorsement from
popular Nigerian Pastor Chris Oyakhilome, which provided him
the additional bonus of speaking at a rally attended by
60,000 youths at the Lagos Stadium.
5. (C) This leads to the second support base Utomi believes
he enjoys--the young voters. Niger Delta youths have told
him they think he is a strong, legitimate candidate. Utomi
is an Igbo but from the Niger Delta and therefore believes he
has the support of both regions. Utomi posited that if he
can take the south-east and south-south, he can walk through
the middle of the elections while other candidates and
parties duel.
6. (C) Utomi, Director of the prestigious Lagos Business
School, is also supported by Nigerian business elite;
however, they cannot openly support him and risk their
relations with those currently in power. If there is a
runoff election or tie-breaker and Utomi's name is not in the
mix, the Director of the Stock Exchange told Utomi on
February 25, many in the economic elite will find themselves
at risk. The Director said Utomi is supportive of liberal,
free markets.
7. (C) However, a return of Buhari to power would be the
beginning of the end of economic reform. The northern
establishment is committed to dismantling the current system
and stripping the economic elite of their fortunes, returning
power to Buhari and the north. The hope of northern power
brokers that consensus in the north would pressure Atiku and
former military ruler General Muhammadu Buhari, running under
LAGOS 00000175 002.2 OF 003
the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP),to overcome their
differences and band together is fading. Atiku and Buhari
are "fighting like cats and dogs" and Utomi thought any
alliance unlikely. Another option, that Ibrahim Babangida
(IBB) step in, has receded because Obasanjo cleverly
scheduled a mission in Guinea to get him out of the country
in order to bide time, Utomi purported.
-------------- --------------
CAMPAIGN CHALLENGES: AVOID LABELS, PROTEST ELECTION RIGGING
-------------- --------------
8. (C) Although he claimed widespread support among the
Igbos, Christians, and south-south, he did not want to be a
"constituent of his constituents" by being labeled the Igbo
or Christian or south-south candidate because each label
would risk repelling its opposite segment of the population.
Instead, he wanted to be seen as a candidate who was known
and popular across the length and breadth of the country as
someone passionate about Nigeria as a whole, not just a
particular slice of it. To do this and to make his campaign
effective, Utomi has hired a campaign team from Washington DC
which also worked on the elections in the Ukraine. The media
is opening up, but is still very corrupt, Utomi said.
9. (C) Additionally, Utomi is working with Lagos Governor
Bola Tinubu to begin 30,000-strong street protests prior to
the elections. These protests would occur every other day
for two to three weeks as a pre-emptive warning against
election rigging. Utomi believes foul play during the
elections would be easy given the state of voter registration
and unpublished voter lists. For instance, Utomi was
doubtful that 61.3 million people registered to vote, as the
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman
Maurice Iwu claims.
-------------- --------------
PDP SPOILERS HALTED BY THREAT OF EFCC PROSECUTIONS
-------------- --------------
10. (C) Utomi speculated the threat of an Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) investigation will
sufficiently intimidate would-be PDP defectors from leaving
the party. Many PDP governors are less than satisfied with
the conduct of the national convention and recent candidacy
announcements. Utomi said he expected quite a few snubbed
governors to leave the PDP at the eleventh hour. Governor
Donald Duke of Cross River State is angry enough to state at
a public event in Calabar recently "If the best man comes
from another party, I have the duty to vote for him," Utomi
stated. But regardless of how quietly other disgruntled PDP
governors wait before the elections, Utomi laughed, Obasanjo
will go after them in the period between elections and the
May 29 presidential inauguration.
11. (C) Utomi praised EFFC Chairman Mallam Nuhu Ribadu's
work and said that if victorious, he would retain Ribadu.
Utomi considers Ribadu a passionate man who believes in what
he is doing.
--------------
MILITARY DOES NOT SUPPORT A COUP
--------------
12. (C) On March 2 a Naval Captain told Utomi the Navy is
"not stupid," is watching the political scene, and prays
someone like Utomi will rule Nigeria. Military rule was not
an attractive option, the Captain said, as soldiers want
Nigeria to be run well.
13. (S) On February 26, former Minister of Defense
Theophilus Yakubu Danjuma also told Utomi that military
intervention was unlikely and that military rule would not be
good for Nigeria. However, if a coup occurred, it would not
be a "staying thing" or long-term solution, the former
Minister posited. Utomi was told such a move would most
likely be done to stabilize the nation so that an honest
election could be held and someone like Utomi would be
elected six months later.
LAGOS 00000175 003.2 OF 003
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
14. (C) Utomi's desire to see Obasanjo depart the Villa
tracks with what other interlocutors have said. There is
growing talk of impeaching the President as the only sure way
to keep him from manipulating the system and to keep
elections on schedule. Regarding the election, Utomi is
obviously enjoying the campaign and thus we can excuse him if
this had led him to overestimating his support. This malady
is inherent in politics. At the end of the day, he is a long
shot but one who has helped by making for a slightly more
constructive issues-oriented campaign than otherwise would
have occurred. End Comment.
BROWNE