GOVERNOR IBORI BACKS PDP TICKET & ATIKU'S BID TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000162

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: GOVERNOR IBORI BACKS PDP TICKET & ATIKU'S BID TO
RUN


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Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Summary. Despite his pro-Vice President Atiku
antecedents, Governor James Ibori of Delta State has pledged
strong financial support for the People's Democratic Party
(PDP) Presidential ticket. Yar'Adua will win the Presidency
"one way or another," according to Governor James Ibori.
Vice President Atiku, the Action Congress (AC) presidential
candidate, should be allowed to run in order to split
northern votes, ostensibly taking some votes from ANPP
candidate Muhammadu Buhari, thus giving the PDP a "more
plausible victory," Ibori said. Ibori acknowledged the need
to assuage Ijaws in Delta State after the selection of
Emmanuel Uduaghan, Ibori's Itsekiri cousin, as the PDP
candidate. However, Ibori was vague as to what he would do
to soothe the wounded Ijaw pride. End Summary.

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Ibori Backs PDP, Discounts Rumors of Candidate Swap
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2. (C) Governor James Ibori of Delta State told the Consul
General during a February 9 conversation that he fully
supports the People's Democratic Party (PDP) Umaru Yar'Adua
and Goodluck Jonathan ticket and was not an Action Congress
(AC) wolf in PDP clothing. Ibori stressed his main objective
was to smooth President Obasanjo's exit from office. If the
President was comfortable with the current PDP ticket, then
the objective of his punctual retirement is best served by
backing who the President backs, Ibori exclaimed. Yet, Ibori
described Katsina State Governor Yar'Adua as more
independent-minded than people give him credit. For example,
Yar'Adua remained in frequent communication with Vice
President Atiku Abubakar. The relationship was cordial,
according to Ibori. Yar'Adua has assured Atiku he would not
be interested in "hunting him" if elected to office, claimed
Ibori. The two men enjoy a mutual liking. If Yar'Adua were
to become president, much of the EFCC-led pursuit of
political opponents would cease, predicted Ibori.


3. (C) Ibori discounted rumors the PDP would jettison
Yar'Auda and Jonathan from the PDP ticket, reasoning too much
time and money has already been spent. A change would be
highly embarrassing and interpreted as a sign of desperation,
remarked Ibori. If a switch were to occur, Ibori posited
vice presidential candidate Governor Goodluck Jonathan, an
Ijaw from Bayelsa, would more likely be evicted than
presidential candidate Yar'Adua. In this regard, Ibori
suggested popular Senate President Ken Nnamani, an Igbo from
Enugu State, was a long shot possibility to take Jonathan's
position as a way of strengthening the ticket.


4. (C) Ibori discounted fears within the PDP that the
sequencing of elections (gubernatorial and state to be held
April 14, presidential and national to be held April 21)
would allow current PDP governors to flip their support to
Atiku at the eleventh hour once they managed to get their
mostly hand-picked successors in office under the PDP banner
during the April 14 election. Ibori said that strategy would
be too risky for most PDP governors. Although they have no
love lost for President Obasanjo and are not enamored with
their colleague from Katsina, to openly support Atiku would
invite President Obasanjo's still considerable ire. Few
governors would be willing to risk an angry Obasanjo tossing
the weight of his law enforcement agencies at them just as
they were about to leave office.

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PDP Victory: Let Atiku Run, Assuage Ijaws in Delta
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5. (C) Ibori expressed guarded optimism that elections would
hold April 14 and 21 as scheduled. He was convinced Yar'Adua
would win the presidency "one way or another." He also
believed Atiku should be permitted to be an AC candidate but
admitted this was a minority view within the PDP hierarchy.
Yar'Adua's northern support was thin, Ibori estimated. Ibori
nonetheless thought that, with the help of fellow northern

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PDP governors, Yar'Adua could carry Kaduna, Bauchi and
possibly Gombe, Kebbi, Kwara and Niger states.


6. (C) Former military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari of the All
Nigeria People's Party (ANPP),has the most popular support
in the north. If Atiku were allowed to run, Atiku could
perhaps subtract from Buhari in Adamawa, Atiku's home state,
and Taraba, its neighbor. Also, Democratic People's Party
candidate, Sokoto Governor Attahiru Bafarawa, would pull some
votes in Sokoto, as a favorite son, away from Buhari.
Meanwhile, the PDP would basically sweep the south with Atiku
getting some support in the southwest but Buhari not being
able to make a noticeable dent in the PDP dominance of that
half of the country, estimated Ibori. In short, allowing
Atiku to run would help create a more plausible scenario for
a first round victory for the PDP.


7. (C) Turning to Delta State politics, Ibori did not
second-guess his choice for PDP gubernatorial candidate, his
Itsekiri cousin, Emmanuel Uduaghan, also a hue and cry had
been raised in certain quarters. Disgruntled Ijaws in Warri
needed to be appeased, Ibori admitted. Despite repeated
questioning by the Consul General, Ibori was vague, and
resolutely so, in describing what, if anything, he would do.
Governor Ibori said he plans to retire from public office
upon ceding the governorship.

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Comment
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8. (C) Ibori is a political tactician who has so far
adroitly played the political field to keep all options and
escape hatches open and fairly accessible. An immensely
wealthy man, Ibori has much to lose. To protect himself,
Ibori will need to walk a few tightropes. PDP hardliners
will be suspicious of Ibori's pro-Atiku antecedents; thus he
must be seen as loyal for any hint of double-dealing could
land him back in the dog house. However, events subsequent
to this conversation suggest Ibori held a minority position
among PDP decision-makers by not opposing Atiku's bid to run
under the AC. He might have a point there for his scenario
giving Buhari the north and Yar'Adua the south makes sense.
Locally, Ibori will need to assuage Delta State Ijaws over
Uduaghan's selection. If he makes a misstep on either the
national or international tightropes, Ibori could take a
great fall. End Comment.
BROWNE