GOVERNOR IBORI BACKS PDP TICKET & ATIKU'S BID TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 LAGOS 000162 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR AF/W STATE FOR INR/AA CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH SAO PAULO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/06/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI SUBJECT: GOVERNOR IBORI BACKS PDP TICKET & ATIKU'S BID TO RUN LAGOS 00000162 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (b and d) ¶1. (C) Summary. Despite his pro-Vice President Atiku antecedents, Governor James Ibori of Delta State has pledged strong financial support for the People's Democratic Party (PDP) Presidential ticket. Yar'Adua will win the Presidency "one way or another," according to Governor James Ibori. Vice President Atiku, the Action Congress (AC) presidential candidate, should be allowed to run in order to split northern votes, ostensibly taking some votes from ANPP candidate Muhammadu Buhari, thus giving the PDP a "more plausible victory," Ibori said. Ibori acknowledged the need to assuage Ijaws in Delta State after the selection of Emmanuel Uduaghan, Ibori's Itsekiri cousin, as the PDP candidate. However, Ibori was vague as to what he would do to soothe the wounded Ijaw pride. End Summary. -------------- -------------- Ibori Backs PDP, Discounts Rumors of Candidate Swap -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) Governor James Ibori of Delta State told the Consul General during a February 9 conversation that he fully supports the People's Democratic Party (PDP) Umaru Yar'Adua and Goodluck Jonathan ticket and was not an Action Congress (AC) wolf in PDP clothing. Ibori stressed his main objective was to smooth President Obasanjo's exit from office. If the President was comfortable with the current PDP ticket, then the objective of his punctual retirement is best served by backing who the President backs, Ibori exclaimed. Yet, Ibori described Katsina State Governor Yar'Adua as more independent-minded than people give him credit. For example, Yar'Adua remained in frequent communication with Vice President Atiku Abubakar. The relationship was cordial, according to Ibori. Yar'Adua has assured Atiku he would not be interested in "hunting him" if elected to office, claimed Ibori. The two men enjoy a mutual liking. If Yar'Adua were to become president, much of the EFCC-led pursuit of political opponents would cease, predicted Ibori. ¶3. (C) Ibori discounted rumors the PDP would jettison Yar'Auda and Jonathan from the PDP ticket, reasoning too much time and money has already been spent. A change would be highly embarrassing and interpreted as a sign of desperation, remarked Ibori. If a switch were to occur, Ibori posited vice presidential candidate Governor Goodluck Jonathan, an Ijaw from Bayelsa, would more likely be evicted than presidential candidate Yar'Adua. In this regard, Ibori suggested popular Senate President Ken Nnamani, an Igbo from Enugu State, was a long shot possibility to take Jonathan's position as a way of strengthening the ticket. ¶4. (C) Ibori discounted fears within the PDP that the sequencing of elections (gubernatorial and state to be held April 14, presidential and national to be held April 21) would allow current PDP governors to flip their support to Atiku at the eleventh hour once they managed to get their mostly hand-picked successors in office under the PDP banner during the April 14 election. Ibori said that strategy would be too risky for most PDP governors. Although they have no love lost for President Obasanjo and are not enamored with their colleague from Katsina, to openly support Atiku would invite President Obasanjo's still considerable ire. Few governors would be willing to risk an angry Obasanjo tossing the weight of his law enforcement agencies at them just as they were about to leave office. -------------- -------------- PDP Victory: Let Atiku Run, Assuage Ijaws in Delta -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Ibori expressed guarded optimism that elections would hold April 14 and 21 as scheduled. He was convinced Yar'Adua would win the presidency "one way or another." He also believed Atiku should be permitted to be an AC candidate but admitted this was a minority view within the PDP hierarchy. Yar'Adua's northern support was thin, Ibori estimated. Ibori nonetheless thought that, with the help of fellow northern LAGOS 00000162 002.2 OF 002 PDP governors, Yar'Adua could carry Kaduna, Bauchi and possibly Gombe, Kebbi, Kwara and Niger states. ¶6. (C) Former military ruler, Muhammadu Buhari of the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP),has the most popular support in the north. If Atiku were allowed to run, Atiku could perhaps subtract from Buhari in Adamawa, Atiku's home state, and Taraba, its neighbor. Also, Democratic People's Party candidate, Sokoto Governor Attahiru Bafarawa, would pull some votes in Sokoto, as a favorite son, away from Buhari. Meanwhile, the PDP would basically sweep the south with Atiku getting some support in the southwest but Buhari not being able to make a noticeable dent in the PDP dominance of that half of the country, estimated Ibori. In short, allowing Atiku to run would help create a more plausible scenario for a first round victory for the PDP. ¶7. (C) Turning to Delta State politics, Ibori did not second-guess his choice for PDP gubernatorial candidate, his Itsekiri cousin, Emmanuel Uduaghan, also a hue and cry had been raised in certain quarters. Disgruntled Ijaws in Warri needed to be appeased, Ibori admitted. Despite repeated questioning by the Consul General, Ibori was vague, and resolutely so, in describing what, if anything, he would do. Governor Ibori said he plans to retire from public office upon ceding the governorship. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶8. (C) Ibori is a political tactician who has so far adroitly played the political field to keep all options and escape hatches open and fairly accessible. An immensely wealthy man, Ibori has much to lose. To protect himself, Ibori will need to walk a few tightropes. PDP hardliners will be suspicious of Ibori's pro-Atiku antecedents; thus he must be seen as loyal for any hint of double-dealing could land him back in the dog house. However, events subsequent to this conversation suggest Ibori held a minority position among PDP decision-makers by not opposing Atiku's bid to run under the AC. He might have a point there for his scenario giving Buhari the north and Yar'Adua the south makes sense. Locally, Ibori will need to assuage Delta State Ijaws over Uduaghan's selection. If he makes a misstep on either the national or international tightropes, Ibori could take a great fall. End Comment. BROWNE