PDP LEGACY CAMPAIGN: TARGET GRASSROOTS & NEW

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STATE FOR AF/W
STATE FOR INR/AA
WARSAW FOR LISA PIASCIK
CIUDAD JUAREZ FOR DONNA BLAIR
ISTANBUL FOR TASHAWNA SMITH
SAO PAOLO FOR ANDREW WITHERSPOON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: PDP LEGACY CAMPAIGN: TARGET GRASSROOTS & NEW
GENERATION

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Classified By: Consul General Brian L. Browne for reasons 1.4 (B) and (
D)


1. (C) Summary: According to Francis Sheen, Director of
Communications for the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) 2007
Presidential Legacy Campaign to be launched in late February,
the PDP faces challenges by Igbos from within the party,
"bluebloods" outside the party, and former party members who
defected to the Action Congress (AC) with their political and
campaign machinery. In response to these challenges, PDP
will launch a grass-roots campaign, including candidate
debates in March, to attract support from both traditional
rulers and younger generations. Rivers Governor Peter Odili
has contributed his campaign machinery to the Legacy
Campaign. According to Sheen, Delta Governor James Ibori has
fallen from grace and is likely to be arrested when he leaves
the Governorship. End Summary.

YAR'ADUA AND JONATHAN CHALLENGED ON THREE FRONTS
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2. (C) Francis Sheen told Poloff on February 6 he will be
the Director of Communications for the People's Democratic
Party (PDP) Presidential Legacy Campaign for Katsina Governor
Umaru Yar'Adua and running mate Bayelsa Governor Goodluck
Jonathan. Yar'Adua and Jonathan will merge their campaigns
in late February under the Legacy slogan and campaign across
the nation together. Sheen was confident Yar'Adua and
Jonathan would win, but highlighted current challenges. PDP
Igbo governors believe Jonathan and the Ijaws have taken the
Igbos' turn to go to Abuja and are "giving us a lot of
trouble," Sheen said.


3. (C) A second challenge is the fact that neither Yar'Adua
nor Jonathan have long-standing national political
reputations, as does All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP)
presidential candidate Muhammadu Buhari. However, Sheen said
a focused attack on Buhari's dictatorial past, slated to
begin in February, will quell this issue.


4. (C) Sheen bemoaned the exit of many PDP founders to the
Action Congress (AC) which has given the PDP "a lot of
headaches" and has created a strong opposition which neither
Yar'Adua nor Jonathan are sufficiently politically seasoned
to dismantle. The PDP's "master vote riggers" have defected
to the AC, Sheen said, and the PDP will contest any rigging
it perceives. President Obasanjo should not "quarrel with
anyone" in the next ninety days, Sheen said, because this
would reflect negatively on Yar'Adua and Jonathan. Sheen
said he wished Obasanjo could be asked to distance himself
from the Legacy Campaign, but lamented that such a move would
be impossible. (Comment: The remark about Obasanjo not
"quarreling" is interesting. President Obasanjo has gotten
particularly rebarbative as the election date approaches,
verbally sparring with all and sundry, even people within his
own camp. As Sheen suggests, this has increased the
political temperature while also generating bad will for
Obasanjo's candidates. End Comment.)

LEGACY CAMPAIGN: TARGET GRASS ROOTS AND NEW GENERATION
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5. (C) Sheen forecasts the AC and ANPP will attract large
numbers of would-be PDP votes. To counter this, Sheen said
the Legacy Campaign will hold grass roots rallies. It will
also highlight the role of traditional kings, while
simultaneously seeking the support of younger generations.
The campaign will be issue-based. In March, the NGO
Concerned Professionals will sponsor debates between

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political parties. The campaign will also court the Nigerian
diaspora's five million votes in the U.S. by visiting the
Congressional Black Caucus and by asking Nigerians to vote at
the Nigerian Embassy and Consulates. (Comment: The statement
that the campaign will be issues-based was either so naive or
disingenuous that it jars. Thus far, the campaign has been
long on invectives and short on substantive insight. By all
indications, it will stick to this woeful cause. End Comment.)


6. (C) Governor Odili of Rivers State, who coveted
Jonathan's PDP vice presidential position, early in
February turned over his campaign machinery to the Legacy
Campaign. Odili's gesture implies he has bowed to the
national PDP's choice of Yar'Adua and Jonathan and is no
longer a "security threat." Governor Ibori of Delta State,
on the other hand, is in trouble, Sheen said. Ibori will say
he has donated naira 1.5 billion (approximately USD 11.5
million) to the Legacy Campaign. However, that will not save
him, Sheen opined. Ibori will be arrested as soon as he
leaves the governorship and loses immunity, Sheen said.
Ibori is in poor favor and "will pay dearly" for theft of
state government funds and for allowing others to steal,
Sheen warned.

COMMENT
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7. (C) Comment: Sheen's concerns highlight Yar'Adua and
Jonathan's weaknesses. Sheen's cryptic comment about the
defection of key PDP elements, namely "master vote riggers"
may reflect fear that the vaunted PDP election machinery may
not work as well in 2007 as in 2003. End Comment.
BROWNE