UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO IN BRUSSELS -- THE "EU

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 000646 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT ALSO FOR EUR/UMB E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2017 TAGS: PREL ECIN ETRD ENRG UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: YUSHCHENKO IN BRUSSELS -- THE "EU LIGHTHOUSE" REF: KYIV 540 Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d) ¶1. (U) Summary: Ukrainian leaders continued their tours of European capitals with President Yushchenko making Ukraine's case for EU membership during a March 8 visit to Brussels and a March 15-16 visit to Copenhagen, echoing the points Prime Minister Yanukovych made during his February 28 working visit to Berlin (reftel). Both leaders strongly supported Ukrainian integration into Europe and, as Yushchenko put it, want a reference to EU membership in the EU-Ukraine "New Enhanced Agreement" to act as Ukraine's "lighthouse" -- illuminating a path to closer integration with Europe and potential EU membership. Yushchenko asked for additional EU support in resolving Transnistria and was eager to start free trade negotiations soon. His EU hosts brought up a re-admission agreement with Ukraine and discussed energy issues, including reversal of the Odesa-Brody pipeline flow. The President of the EU Parliament told Yushchenko that the prospects for passage of a bill declaring the Holodomor as genocide are good. ¶2. (C) Comment: Yushchenko's visit was short on substance, but helped him to communicate both to his EU audience and domestically the importance of Ukraine's engagement with and movement toward the EU. Both sides laid out by now well-rehearsed positions. If Ukraine's WTO accession does take place this year, Ukraine and the EU could begin full-scale discussions on the implementation of an EU-Ukraine free trade area, which would truly mean that EU-Ukraine relations had moved significantly forward and allow Ukraine to receive some of the same benefits as EU membership. End summary/comment. ¶3. (U) During his March 8 one-day visit to Brussels Yushchenko met with European Commission President Jose Barroso, EU Commissioner for External Relations Benita Ferrero-Waldner, EU General Secretary Javier Solana and European Parliament President Hans-Gert Pottering. At a March 13 meeting, EU EC Political, Press and Information Section director Dirk Schuebel told us the positions of Yushchenko and Yanukovych regarding Ukraine's path toward Europe had become nearly identical in recent weeks. Both leaders and their political parties want the next EU-Ukraine "New Enhanced Agreement" to include a path to EU membership. Schuebel noted that Party of Regions MP and former Ukrainian ambassador to Sweden Leonid Kozhara went so far as to say recently that his party would not support ratification of any EU-Ukraine agreement that did not specifically include the potential of EU membership for Ukraine. (Schuebel, however, also opined that Kozhara had been playing "bad cop" in a negotiating ploy to soften up EU resistance to the proposal, since his Party of Regions colleague immediately jumped in to downplay the prospect of a Regions veto of the agreement.) In an op-ed piece in the "Wall Street Journal Europe," timed to coincide with Yushchenko's March 16 visit to Denmark, Yushchenko took a softer line, affirming Ukraine's intention to integrate with the expansion that has taken place to date. In Denmark, Yushchenko added Ukraine intended to fulfill the EU's Copenhagen criteria within 10 years, even if no firm offer of EU membership was at hand. The New Agreement and EU Membership -------------- ¶4. (SBU) In Brussels, Yushchenko told Solana he wanted a reference to EU membership in the next EU-Ukraine "New Enhanced Agreement" to act as a "lighthouse" and illuminate the way forward for Ukraine's a path to the EU. Solana replied that Ukraine's place in Europe is important to the EU and that, for the EU, Ukraine is the "lighthouse" in Eastern Europe for neighbors like Russia and Belarus. Schuebel also commented that Ukraine hopes that its EU membership prospects would get a boost when Poland assumed the EU Presidency in ¶2011. ¶5. (SBU) Schuebel said the final title of the "New Enhanced Agreement" would be kept for last, although Yushchenko did not raise the issue during his Brussels meetings. Although Ukrainians continue to push for an "association agreement," Schuebel argued that "association" was an imprecise term that included not only the EU relationship with Turkey, with the possible goal of EU membership, but also the EU's relationship with Argentina, which had no prospect of membership at all. The Germans, in pushing for a revised EU charter, hoped to include a more precise definition of which countries could potentially become EU members. KYIV 00000646 002 OF 002 ¶6. (SBU) Schuebel said a free trade agreement would be an integral part of the "New Enhanced Agreement." Yushchenko was anxious to start detailed negotiations on the free trade agreement with the EU as soon as possible. However his EU interlocutors said negotiations would not commence until the WTO Working Party had issued a positive recommendation on Ukraine's WTO accession. This was an EU concession to Ukraine, since the EU had previously taken the position that negotiations would not commence until Ukraine had actually joined the WTO. Schuebel opined that EU-Ukraine free trade negotiations, however, were unlikely to start before the latter half of this year. ¶7. (SBU) Russia's agreement on re-admission of illegal migrants from Ukraine to Russia facilitated progress on the EU-Ukraine re-admission agreement, which was part of a package that the EU required to approve an agreement on simplified visa procedures for Ukrainian travelers. Schuebel noted that a significant proportion of migrants illegally entering the EU had transited Ukraine from Russia, with their origins not just in Central Asia and the south Caucasus, but as far afield as India and Pakistan. The Ukrainians continued to complain about the cost of establishing detention camps for returnees from the EU, even though the EU was prepared to provide significant monetary assistance for their construction. Energy Cooperation and Transnistria -------------- ¶8. (C) Schuebel noted that EU and Ukraine have successfully cooperated on several energy related projects and remarked that the first gas metering station -- funded by the EU -- was recently opened outside of Kyiv. Energy related issues were discussed while Yushchenko was in Brussels, but Schuebel commented the real power on energy issues now rests with Deputy Prime Minister Kluyev and Energy Minister Boyko. The obstacles to reversing the flow of the Odesa-Brody oil pipeline were discussed during Yushchenko's visit, including Polish doubts about potential profitability of the project. The prospects for the upcoming Kyiv summit on Odesa-Brody, that would include the presidents of Ukraine, Poland, Lithuania, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, were also touched upon. ¶9. (C) Yushchenko welcomed EU involvement in Ukraine-Moldova relations in the form of the EU Border Assistance Mission (EUBAM) but also asked for more EU support in resolving the Transnistria "frozen conflict." He wants more "transparency" at the border and EU support to get Russia back to the negotiating table. Holodomor Genocide Bill in EU Parliament -------------- ¶10. (C) Parliament President Pottering told Yushchenko that the prospects for passage of a bill recognizing the Holodomor as genocide in the EU Parliament are good. Schuebel opined that EU MPs from some countries want to use the genocide bill to embarrass Russia while others will vote for it out of a sense of moral conviction. ¶11. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor