UKRAINE: GETTING TO GOVERNMENT - ORANGE COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L KYIV 002967 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/05/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: GETTING TO GOVERNMENT - ORANGE COALITION ELECTS A SPEAKER REF: KYIV 2923 Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(a,b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: After a day of parliamentary maneuvering, the orange coalition parties of Yuliya Tymoshenko and President Yushchenko mustered a slim-227 majority vote to elect 33-year old Foreign Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk as the Speaker of the Rada. The successful vote showed that the coalition is viable, apparently surprising opposition forces who doubted the coalition's ability to elect a Speaker. Yatsenyuk, who was elected in a secret ballot the evening of December 4, took the podium minutes after the opposition called foul and walked out. In his first statement as Speaker, Yatsenyuk called for unity, offered the opposition the post of First Deputy Speaker and said that approval of the 2008 budget would be a top priority. The Rada is scheduled to reconvene on December 6, although the press is reporting that Yatsenyuk could forward Tymoshenko's nomination as Prime Minister to the President as early as December 5, as per Rada rules The President will have 15 days in which to consider the nomination and send it back to the Rada for a confirmation vote that will again challenge the orange coalition to demonstrate its ability to produce at least 226 votes; the press reports that Yushchenko wants a package of "12 laws adopted in violation of the constitution" to be passed before he will forward Tymoshenko's name to the Rada for a vote. ¶2. (C) The successful election of Our Ukraine's candidate for Speaker was a critical first test for the orange coalition. Up until the result of the vote was announced, many (including most in the opposition) doubted that BYuT and OU-PSD could actually get all of their 227 deputies (former NSDC secretary Plyushch on the OU list declined to support the coalition) to the chamber and to vote for the orange candidate. The day's events included an odd mid-day public gambit by BYuT and OU-PSD to gain Communist Party support for Yatsenyuk by proposing a package vote for Speaker and the two deputy Speakers, with Communist Adam Martynuk as candidate for the First Deputy Speaker post. There was also a scuffle between a group of Regions and OU-PSD deputies at the end of the Speaker vote. The walkout of opposition deputies just before the results of the vote was announced (and their threat to take the vote to court as illegal) was troubling; however, Regions deputies announced December 5 that they will not block the formation of a democratic coalition and will work with Yatsenyuk in the Rada. All of this is prelude to the main event -- the vote for Tymoshenko as Prime Minister and formation of a government. Once the President returns the nomination to the Rada, orange will need to have all of its Rada members in their seats and ready to vote for Tymoshenko. Otherwise, Tymoshenko is expected to make good on her threat to leave the coalition and join the opposition, leaving Yushchenko and his team to pick up the pieces and figure out the next move. End Summary and Comment. Orange Elects Yatsenyuk Elected as Speaker -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The orange forces took an important next step toward forming a Tymoshenko-led government on December 4, with the successful election of FM Arseniy Yatsenyuk as Rada Speaker with 227 votes. The day began with great uncertainty about Yatsenyuk's prospects. As the Rada slogged through several hours of votes on committee jurisdictions, Yatsenyuk and orange heavyweights Tymoshenko, Lutsenko and Kyrylenko, worked the halls to prepare the groundwork for a successful vote. With Communist Martynyuk in the chair, the Rada set up the procedures for the secret ballot vote for Speaker required by the Rada rules, eventually overcoming a deadlock and agreeing on a chairman (from Lytvyn's Bloc) for the Counting Commission charged with tallying the ballots for Speaker. Tymoshenko and her colleagues stayed in the their seats, worrying that Martynyuk might make a move that would complicate their effort to elect a Speaker. ¶4. (C) At mid-day, during a break, in what was widely-interpreted as reflecting a concern within the orange coalition that they did not have the votes to ensure Yatsenyuk's election, Tymoshenko, Kyrylenko and representatives of the BYuT and OU-PSD factions held a press conference in which they announced their proposal for a "package vote" to elect the Speaker and the two deputy Speakers in one vote. The idea was that in order to shore up support for Yatsenyuk, the Communist faction (numbering 27 votes),would be offered the position of first Deputy Rada Speaker in exchange for Communist support for the package vote. In fact, when the parties returned to the Rada, the Communists backed a Regions' request to adjourn for the afternoon prior to nominating a Speaker -- as one BYuT deputy told us, in order to cut a new deal with Regions in exchange for their votes. In fact, when the Rada readjourned in the late afternoon, the Communists did not support the idea of a package vote, leaving the orange coalition to stand on its own. ¶5. (SBU) The first signs that the orange coalition might have enough support to elect Yatsenyuk was the successful passage of resolutions to approve the ballot form for the Speaker vote and agreement to remain in the chamber in order to elect a Speaker. Just after 6 pm, BYuT deputy Turchynov, now in the chair, asked all of the factions if they had candidates. OU-PSD immediately nominated Yatsenyuk; BYuT supported his nomination. The other parties did not have candidates. Yatsenyuk, who had met with individual factions on December 3 and early in the day on December 4, addressed the Rada and answered questions, skillfully responding to questions and outlining his priority program as Speaker, starting with the budget. ¶6. (SBU) The chair then called for a vote from 7:10 pm until 8:10 pm, with counting scheduled for the following hour and an announcement of the results scheduled for 9:15 pm. Deputies from OU-PSD, BYuT and Lytvyn's Bloc lined up to receive their ballots; Regions and the Communists chose not to take part. (Embassy note: In July 2006, OU and BYuT also decided not to take part in the election of Moroz as Speaker. End note.) OU-PSD and BYuT deputies then lined up to pass through two polling booths, especially set up for the vote outside the Rada chamber; although they picked up ballots, Lytvyn Bloc deputies decided not to vote. Apparently, Tymoshenko and Turchynov stationed themselves near the polling booths -- Regions has alleged that they improperly checked each ballot before it was dropped into the ballot box. Near the end of the vote, a group of Regions deputies reportedly approached the line and attempted to take ballots from several OU-PSD deputies. There was a small fist-fight that ended quickly. By 8:45 pm, word was out that Yatsenyuk had been elected -- all 227 deputies taking part in the vote had supported his candidacy. A beaming Tymoshenko returned to the Rada floor where Yatsenyuk was presented with 100 red roses. ¶7. (SBU) Just a few minutes before the results were officially announced, Regions' faction leader Raisa Bohatyreva motioned to Communist faction leader Symonyenko and the two factions walked out of the chamber, alleging improprieties with the voting, including the "checking" of ballots, and arguing that individual deputies had not been given an opportunity to self-nominate for Speaker. After the official announcement, Yatsenyuk went up to the podium and after thanking the coalition, thanked the opposition for allowing the vote to happen and pledged to work with the opposition, offering them the position of First Deputy Speaker. The deputies then spontaneously sang the national anthem. Lytvyn Bloc deputies and Regions Deputy Taras Chornovil remained in the chamber; the Rada recessed until December 6. Is the PM Vote Next? -------------- ¶8. (C) Although the orange coalition passed the first public test and successfully elected a Speaker, Tymoshenko's election as Prime Minister is by no means a done deal. Although press reports state that the faction conveyed Tymoshenko's name to the Rada Speaker to be conveyed to President Yushchenko on December 5, there is no confirmation from the Rada or the Presidential Administration that this has happened yet. Yushchenko has also been coy in his public response to the vote and his approach to the creation of a new government. His first public comments congratulated Yatsenyuk on his election, and noted that the new Speaker would bring stability to the Rada. Later, during a meeting with local officials from the regions, Yushchenko reportedly later said that he wanted passage of 12 key laws, initially adopted by the previous Rada in a form in "violation of the constitution," before there was a vote for Prime Minister. Yushchenko's comments imply that he might very well use the 15 days accorded him by the constitution before sending Tymoshenko's name back to the Rada for a vote. Tymoshenko told the press today that she hopes the government will be formed "within the next two weeks" and said that on December 6, the Rada will start electing committee heads and forming a temporary commission to review the President's 12 bills. Key among the 12 bills is a new Law on the Cabinet of Ministers, that would limit the Prime Minister's powers in a number of key areas important to the President. ¶9. (SBU) Regions, although critical in public about the process by which Yatsenyuk was elected, is also stating publicly that it will return to the Rada and work with Yatsenyuk as Speaker. PM Yanukovych criticized Tymoshenko for her methods of getting a Speaker elected, calling it "dictatorial democracy," but also congratulated Yatsenuk on his election as Speaker. Other Regions deputies said that they were ready for opposition and planned to focus on work in committees of greatest interest to its voters. Rumor has it that Regions was furious with the Communists for having considered a deal to support Yatsenyuk in exchange for getting the First Deputy Rada Speaker position. One BYuT member alleged that Communist faction leader Symenyenko had been called in to see PM Yanukovych who convinced him that cooperating with Tymoshenko was a bad idea. Yatsenyuk Bio Notes -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Yatsenyuk is the youngest Rada Speaker ever to be elected in Ukraine's history. Born on May 22, 1974, in Chernivtsiy (near the Romanian border),the 33-year old has been Minister of Foreign Affairs since March 21, 2007, when his appointment was confirmed by the previous Rada by 400 plus (out of 450) votes. Trained as a lawyer and as an economist, Yatsenyuk burst on to the political scene in 2001, when he became the Minister of Economy in the Autonomous Republic of Crimean Government. He was a deputy Governor of the National Bank and deputy head of the Odesa oblast administration before becoming Minister of Economy in September 2005 in the Yekhanurov Government. In September 2006, when the Yanukovych Government came into power, he became the deputy head of the Presidential Administration and then moved to the Foreign Ministry. Yatsenyuk is fluent in English, married and has two young daughters. Yatsenyuk has been a long-time good contact of the Embassy in all of his government positions and is expected to be an acceptable Speaker for both the orange coalition parties as well as the opposition. ¶11. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor