UKRAINE: ORANGE COALITION ANNOUNCED, BUT NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 002923 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/29/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: ORANGE COALITION ANNOUNCED, BUT NO AGREEMENT YET ON SPEAKER Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(a,b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: Yuliya Tymoshenko's bloc (BYuT) and Our Ukraine-People's Self Defense (OU-PSD) announced the successful conclusion of a coalition agreement in the Rada November 29, bringing the renewed "orange" coalition one step closer to forming a government. However, the new coalition was unable to bring a nomination forward for the next Rada Speaker due to disagreement and disarray within OU-PSD's ranks, leading the Rada to recess until Tuesday, December 4. The coalition agreement was signed by 227 BYuT and OU-PSD deputies, a two-vote majority, with only former NSDC Secretary Ivan Plyushch refusing to sign. Many deputies were SIPDIS talking about Foreign Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk as a possible OU-PSD candidate for Speaker; Yatsenyuk, who was abroad leading Ukraine's delegation to the OSCE Ministerial in Madrid, was reportedly en route back to Kyiv, to attend a meeting scheduled between President Yushchenko and the OU-PSD faction with the goal of agreeing on a nominee for Speaker. ¶2. (C) Comment: The orange parties took a big step toward forming a government by getting 227 deputies to approve a coalition agreement, but this is only the first in a multi-step process. Most see the vote for speaker as the critical next test in Yuliya Tymoshenko's quest to regain the premiership. Many OU-PSD deputies were angry that their choice for Speaker, faction leader Kyrylenko, might be passed over again and pointed out that Yatsenyuk was only the President's nominee for the post right now, not the faction's choice yet. BYuT deputies appeared relieved that the orange coalition was finally announced, but frustrated with OU-PSD's continuing internal disagreements, while Regions remained in a "wait and see" mode. Although the new coalition could agree on a candidate for Speaker and forward the name of their PM nominee (presumably Yuliya Tymoshenko) to the President as early as December 4, Yushchenko has 15 days in which to consider the nomination, meaning that a Rada vote on the PM could come as late as December 19 -- but it could also be as early as December 4. If a PM vote is successful, it is likely that an orange government slate would be quickly announced and confirmed. If that is the case, Washington will need to be ready and among the first to make congratulatory calls to the new PM. End comment. Orange Coalition Agreement Announced -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The November 29 session of the Rada opened with 423 of 450 deputies registered in the hall and OU-PSD's Roman Zvarych in charge as the temporary Chairman, but then recessed until 12 noon. Zvarych announced that BYuT and OU-PSD were in the process of agreeing on the formation of a coalition, but first required extra time to gather the final signatures on a coalition agreement, and then later required additional time to register the agreement with the Rada Secretariat. At noon, the Rada reconvened and Zvarych SIPDIS announced that BYuT and OU-PSD had successfully formed a coalition and registered the agreement, signed by 227 of 228 BYuT and OU-PSD deputies, with the Rada Secretariat -- a two-vote majority. BYuT head Tymoshenko was presented with an enormous basket of flowers, yellow and blue in the shape of Ukraine surrounded by red roses, on the Rada floor. Zvarych then said that the next item on the agenda was the election of a Speaker; however, because work was still ongoing regarding the final list and jurisdictions of the Rada committees, the session would be adjourned until Tuesday, December 4. ¶4. (C) Once the session concluded, word quickly swept through the hall that the lone holdout refusing to sign the coalition agreement was former NSDC Secretary Plyushch, rumored the week before to be Yushchenko's top choice to be Speaker. OU-PSD members appeared to know that Plyushch had decided not to sign -- Tatar leader Jemilev told polcouns that only 227 had signed the agreement before this fact was announced -- but most BYuT deputies we spoke to had believed that all OU-PSD deputies had signed. Speaking to the press outside the Rada hall, OU-PSD's Zvarych said that Plyushch had exercised his democratic choice not to sign the coalition agreement and that as an experienced statesman, Plyushch was an asset to the OU-PSD faction and would continue to be involved in the faction's work. BYuT's Eugene Korniychuk told polcouns that he fully expected Plyushch to be drummed out of the party, a sentiment matched by BYuT's Hrihoriy Nemiryia who argued that once a government was in place, OU-PSD would need to deal with Plyushch as well as the seven deputies who had reluctantly joined the majority of the bloc in supporting an orange coalition. But No Speaker Yet KYIV 00002923 002 OF 003 -------------- ¶5. (C) The other buzz in the hall came from the rumor that FM Yatsenyuk would be the new OU-PSD candidate for Speaker, once again dislodging faction leader Kyrylenko from his position as the faction's nominee. Judging by reports from Madrid, Yatsenyuk, who was leading the Ukrainian delegation to the OSCE Ministerial, was surprised by the news and not necessarily happy to have been tossed into the political fray as he quickly boarded a flight en route back to Kyiv. Presidential Administration Deputy Head Chaliy confirmed the rumor that Yatsenyuk was in play, telling the Ambassador that Yatsenyuk and Rukh leader Yuriy Kostenko were Yushchenko's candidates for the Speaker's job. BYuT's Nemiryia told polcouns that there were "bad feelings" within OU-PSD regarding Yatsenyuk's candidacy to be Speaker; the only way that some deputies would agree to the "destruction" of Kyrylenko would be if Yushchenko offered up the "destruction" of Presidential Administration head Baloha -- implying that they would only agree to support a candidate other than Kyrylenko only if Baloha lost his job. ¶6. (C) Although noting that they would have preferred Kyrylenko as Speaker, most BYuT deputies seemed to believe that Yatsenyuk was a good compromise choice and far better than Plyushch would have been. On the other hand, some OU-PSD deputies we spoke with, mostly allies of Kyrylenko, were angry, stressing like Pora's Kaskiv, that Yatsenyuk was only a suggestion made by the President, not yet the faction's choice. Kaskiv confirmed that this decision would have to be made during an upcoming meeting with the President, to be scheduled as soon as Yatsenyuk returned to Kyiv. Regions deputies like Yuriy Miroshnychenko told polcouns that they did not oppose Yatsenyuk, but that there had been no confirmation yet from OU-PSD that he was a candidate yet. Getting to Government -------------- ¶7. (C) If the new coalition succeeds in nominating and electing a speaker at the December 4 session -- or soon after, the next task will be to nominate the Prime Minister. The coalition should formally present the name of its candidate for the premiership, in this case Yuliya Tymoshenko, to the President and he will have 15 days to consider the nomination and to return it to the Rada for a formal vote. Depending upon how quickly Yushchenko acts, we could have a vote for Prime Minister as early as the first week of December or as late as December 21. According to the Rada rules, a government should be formed within 30 days of the convening of the Rada -- so no later than December 22. If the coalition successfully confirms Tymoshenko's candidacy as Prime Minister, we expect that the President will provide his nominations for Foreign and Defense Ministers, his prerogative under the Constitution, and then the Rada will vote on a slate of ministers. Given its very small majority, possibly made even smaller by Plyushch's refusal to sign on to the coalition agreement, the orange parties will need nearly every vote to elect a PM and an orange government. ¶8. (C) However, the Speaker's vote will be a critical first test for the new coalition -- and if the coalition nominates Yatsenyuk, Kyrylenko or anyone else and the vote fails, it will be difficult to see how it would be possible for the coalition to elect a Prime Minister and a government. Judging by the attitudes of BYuT deputies in the Rada, Tymoshenko and her party are still confident that they will succeed in forming a government. Leading political analyst Ihor Kohut agreed, telling polcouns that the way looked clear for Tymoshenko to be elected; however, he predicted that she would end up leading an unstable and weak government that might last only a few months or until perhaps September at the latest. BYuT deputies confided that they were nervous about their coalition partner, expressing concern that OU-PSD internal struggles had already cost the new coalition two weeks of time and this latest squabble over a candidate for speaker was eating up another week on the clock. ¶9. (C) On OU-PSD's side, reports of tensions among the various factions within the bloc and difficult relations with the President and Presidential Administration head Baloha continue to surface in our conversations with individual deputies. Many remain concerned that the bloc will have difficulty in remaining united over the next weeks or months -- or even long enough to elect a government. A united front after the next meeting between Yushchenko and OU-PSD deputies will be critical if the orange coalition is to succeed in forming a government. KYIV 00002923 003 OF 003 10 (C) Meanwhile, Regions deputies appear to be relaxed about -- and even enjoying -- the turmoil in the orange ranks. When Zvarych closed the Rada session after the coalition failed to come up with a nominee for Speaker, one Regions backbencher shouted out "Slava Coalitsiya - or Long Live the Coalition" to the amusement of his colleagues. Many tell us that they are prepared for opposition, but that "everything will turn out fine." If the orange forces succeed in forming a government, most Regions' deputies do not believe that it will last. As for Volodymr Lytvyn and his small bloc, there is also no visible movement toward joining the orange camp. Lytvyn Bloc members appear to be considering offering the orange forces what they call "situational support" on issues of interest to them -- but only if the orange team is able to form a government. In the meantime, both groups appear content to wait and let the orange team either get it together or to self destruct. ¶11. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor