Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KYIV2748
2007-11-05 11:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

UKRAINE: YOUNG DEPUTIES UNDERSCORE PARTY DIVIDES

Tags:  PGOV PREL PINR UP 
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VZCZCXRO8066
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKV #2748/01 3091136
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 051136Z NOV 07
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4252
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002748 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: YOUNG DEPUTIES UNDERSCORE PARTY DIVIDES


KYIV 00002748 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002748

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: YOUNG DEPUTIES UNDERSCORE PARTY DIVIDES


KYIV 00002748 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. A lunch with three young MPs, all under 35
years old, underscored the fact that the three main factions
share common policy ideas, but have such strained relations
that any cooperation in the next year or two could be
situational and uneven. Olena Bondarenko (Regions),Yuriy
Pavlenko (Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense),and Oleh
Lyashko (BYuT) met with the Ambassador on November 2 to
discuss coalition building and needed government policies.
The three young politicians were not shy in expressing their
disdain for each others' parties -- Lyashko said internal
differences within OU-PSD were hurting the orange coalition
before it even got started and Bondarenko accused OU-PSD of
hypocrisy in publicly badmouthing Regions and then
negotiating with them privately. Bondarenko and Lyashko
several times sidetracked into mutual recriminations about
corruption among party leaders. Both Lyashko and Pavlenko
believed that the orange coalition would prevail and succeed
in forming a coalition in the Rada and a government, while
Bondarenko expressed Regions' willingness to sit back and
watch them fail. At the end of the lunch, all three agreed
that WTO accession would happen soon, that European
integration was vital, and that the three parties share views
on social policies. None had thoughts on ways they could
change the way the Rada works, and Bondarenko and Lyashko
were especially dismissive that they, as young
parliamentarians, had any influence over the decision-making
of their factions.


2. (C) Comment. It was interesting that this new generation
of politicians was not interested in discussing intraparty
cooperation or looking for ways to solve problems together,
but rather strongly defended their party interests and hewed
to party line. In fact, an effort to build intraparty ties
between young politicians that we'd heard about from other
contacts has now been shelved until the fractious discussions
regarding a coalition conclude and the new Rada's work is
underway. Although the lively conversation never became

tense or unpleasant, the three young politicians' heated
debates underscored that despite broad agreement on key
policy priorities, the rivalry between the three parties will
continue to overshadow cooperation. As a result, any
coalition or government is likely to be short-term and
possibly unstable. Comments from Bondarenko and Lyashko
about their lack of influence with their party leaders also
highlighted the top down control with which Regions and BYuT
operate. End summary and comment.

Coalitions: Orange First, but For How Long Questionable
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Regions MP Bondarenko started off the conversation by
admitting that BYuT was better prepared for the September 30
elections and that while Regions had still gotten the most
votes, it had lost its advantage in the Rada. She thought
that a coalition between Regions and OU-PSD would be unstable
and a "constant headache". She believed that Regions
actually shared more in common with BYuT as both parties
represented big business, but said they would never work
together because their views on how to run the economy were
diametrically opposed. OU, in her opinion, was a party of
intellectuals; their value-added in any coalition was in
bettering Ukraine spiritually and culturally. Bondarenko
said that because she did not believe there would be any real
stability in the political system until Ukraine underwent
another parliamentary election and the 2009/2010 presidential
election, her preference was for some sort of temporary or
technocratic government in the short term. She also said
that until the next set of elections, policy discussions will
be focused on questions of balance of power and the
constitution, instead of on reforms or other needed
legislation.


4. (C) BYuT MP Lyashko jumped in next to promise that BYuT
would never be in a coalition with Regions. Problems within
the orange coalition, he argued, were internal OU-PSD issues;
OU-PSD kept breaking promises. Lyashko said that they had
made a lot of concessions to Yushchenko, but there was a
limit. He also predicted that if OU-PSD went into a broad
coalition, they would meet the same fate as the Socialists
(i.e. not be reelected to the Rada).


5. (C) OU-PSD MP and former Minister of Youth and Sports
Pavlenko countered to say he had worked in the 2005
Tymoshenko Cabinet, and that she had had the opportunity to
implement her policies, but did not. This spurred a heated
exchange between Pavlenko and Lyashko over whether Tymoshenko
had been constrained in 2005 by Yushchenko and OU or if she
had failed of her own accord. Pavlenko then added that he
did not believe in an OU-Regions coalition. They had tried

KYIV 00002748 002.2 OF 002


it in August 2006 when they signed the Universal and OU got 7
seats in the Yanukovych Cabinet; that had lasted at most 100
days. Moreover, OU-PSD voters wanted an orange coalition.
The test will be whether the coalition can get 226 or more
votes for the Speaker, the PM, and the Cabinet. If the
orange coalition can demonstrate that it is viable, Lytvyn
will support it, according to Pavlenko.


6. (C) Pavlenko added that he had had lunch recently with
Regions MP Borys Kolesnikov, Rinat Akhmetov's lieutenant and
Regions' campaign manager, who had told him that he was in
favor of a Regions-OU coalition. This precipitated another
heated debate among all three party representatives over
which parties worked better or worse together and which
parties kept their promises. Bondarenko suggested that the
collapse of the orange coalition might actually benefit OU.
Lyashko countered that Tymoshenko was like a phoenix, coming
back stronger after every setback -- either she will be PM
and make lives better or she will go into opposition and
become President in order to achieve her goals. Pavlenko
worried that the three factions would be so busy trying to
undermine and make each other look bad that the country would
suffer. The President, he said, had called on all three
parties to work together, which was the right thing to do.


7. (C) Bondarenko then told Pavlenko that OU-PSD was the
height of hypocrisy and stupidity, shouting to the world that
it will never work with Regions, then negotiating privately
with Regions about a possible coalition. OU leaders, she
argued, are embarrassed to look their voters in the eyes. In
contrast, Regions has always been open to working with anyone
who wants to work with them and is the "most generous" of all
the parties. When Moroz said the speakership was his price,
Regions gave it to him. Bondarenko said that people tell
stories that Regions is not united, but that is a lie.
Bondarenko finished by saying that she was convinced that no
one will attack Yushchenko during the next presidential
elections more than Tymoshenko, but OU-PSD continues to work
with her.

Policies: More in Common
--------------


8. (C) When the Ambassador steered the conversation to policy
priorities, all agreed that their respective parties shared
major policy goals. They all thought that WTO accession
would happen soon and that the Rada would be ready to ratify
the accession agreement and any last minute additional
legislation required. Pavlenko believed that all the major
factions will support two-thirds to three-quarters of
legislation, because their positions are the same. He also
thought that although there was controversy right now
surrounding legislative goals listed in the coalition
agreement, these were technical disagreements that would be
worked out. All three also agreed that European integration
was a key priority, although there was less unanimity over
NATO, which became another heated discussion with Bondarenko
dismissing the need for NATO and arguing instead that EU
membership was the critical goal for Ukraine. The three
party representatives, when pressed, also all agreed that
RosUkrEnergo needed to be removed as middleman in the gas
relationship with Russia, although Pavlenko and Bondarenko
warned that it would be difficult to do and would result in
higher gas prices. Finally, they admitted that there were
few differences in their parties' social policies.


9. (U) Visit Embassy KYIV's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor