Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KYIV2588
2007-10-16 12:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

UKRAINE: CLOCK TICKING ON RADA AND COALITION

Tags:  PGOV PREL UP 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0737
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKV #2588/01 2891236
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 161236Z OCT 07
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 4074
INFO RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHLMC/MILLENNIUM CHALLENGE CORP WASHDC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002588 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: CLOCK TICKING ON RADA AND COALITION
FORMATION


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Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002588

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SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: CLOCK TICKING ON RADA AND COALITION
FORMATION


KYIV 00002588 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (SBU) Summary. The Central Election Commission announced
the official election results late on October 15, which
triggers the next steps in seating the new Rada and then the
formation of a government. The CEC must promulgate the
results within 5 days, the Rada must open within 30 days
after promulgation, and the new coalition formed within 30
days from the Rada opening. A group of deputies from the new
Rada (representing each of the factions that successfully
made it into the Rada) will meet within ten days of the
promulgation of the final results to determine the opening
session date -- always a Tuesday; once the Rada members take
their seats, a presidium of five representatives from each of
the factions will run the Rada proceedings until a Speaker is
elected. BYuT leader Tymoshenko and OU-PSD leaders Lutsenko
and Kyrylenko signed a preliminary coalition agreement on the
steps of the Presidential Secretariat immediately after the
CEC announced the final results and said some major
differences had been resolved. Nevertheless, they must still
come to agreement on the finer points of some key laws and
reconcile the part of the Our Ukraine that dislikes
Tymoshenko, if the orange coalition is to be successful and
Tymoshenko is to get the premiership. To this end,
Tymoshenko told the press that they would like the Lytvyn
Bloc to join the coalition, which would give them an
additional 20 seats to bolster their razor thin three-seat
majority of 228.


2. (C) Comment. We would not be surprised if these timelines
slip a bit -- as they did in 2006 when coalition negotiations
dragged on for months -- if the orange team cannot work out
all the details of its cooperation. If all involved parties
adhere to the legally-mandated timeline, the Rada should hold
its first session no later than November 13 (although it
could be November 6 or even October 30 if things moved along
quickly) and a coalition formed within 30 days after that
(approximately December 13 -- or earlier if the Rada convenes
on November 6 or October 30). A decision by the Lytvyn Bloc

to join BYuT and OU-PSD could speed things up because it
would form a more stable 248-member majority. If Lytvyn Bloc
stays neutral, as it has indicated is its preference,
negotiations with those in Our Ukraine opposed to Tymoshenko
and with Regions could drag on until mid-December. Bottom
line is that a coalition agreement signed now is no guarantee
of either an agreed orange coalition in the Rada or the
premiership for Yuliya Tymoshenko. End summary and comment.

CEC Announces Results, Clock Starts on Rada Formation
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) The CEC announced the official results of the
September 30 elections late on October 15. Neither the vote
count nor the seat allocation changed between the preliminary
and final results: Regions - 34.37% (175 seats),BYuT -
30.71% (156 seats),OU-PSD - 14.15% (72 seats),Communists -
5.39% (27),and Lytvyn Bloc - 3.96% (20 seats). The CEC now
has 5 days to promulgate the election results. This in turn
will start the clock on seating the new Rada, which must hold
its first session within 30 days of the promulgation of
results. The only other legal delay could be more court
challenges. Socialist Party representative Valentyna
Semenyuk told the press that they have five days to challenge
the results in the High Arbitrage Court. (Note. The
Socialists already appealed the election to the High
Administrative Court, but the Court chose not to hear the
case. End note.)


4. (SBU) The Rada will be convened by former Speaker Moroz,
either at the request of the President or by no less than one
third of the new MPs. First, the previous Speaker (or the
First Deputy Speaker in his absence) should organize a
preparatory group consisting of newly-elected MPs -- each
faction nominates one MP to the group for every 15 MPs in its
faction, meaning that Regions and BYuT will have the largest
delegations -- to set the date and the agenda for the Rada's
opening session. This group should meet no later than 10
days after the promulgation of the election results. If the
Speaker does not do convene the group, the new MPs nominated
to the group can convene the meeting themselves.


5. (SBU) At the fist Rada session, generally on a Tuesday,
the MPs will take their oath of office, read by the oldest MP
(by our count this will be Communist Ivan Herasymov).
President Yushchenko will give a speech, and the Rada will
begin tackling a number of administrative issues, including
assigning committees and electing a Speaker. The
constitution mandates that after the opening of the Rada, a
coalition must be formed within 30 days. This suggests that
if all sides stick to the legally-dictated timeline, and if

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the CEC results are promulgated on October 20, there should
be a Rada no later than November 13 (30 days actually expires
on November 19, but since that is Monday the last possible
Tuesday session would be November 13) and a coalition no
later than December 13. Election of the Speaker is not
mandated to happen at a specific time, but traditionally has
been the new Rada's first order of business. Until a Speaker
is elected, a temporary 5-member presidium made up of the MP
who chaired the preparatory group and representatives of the
top four vote-getting Rada factions (meaning everyone but
Lytvyn Bloc) will alternate running sessions on a rotating
day-by-day basis, as happened in 2006.

Orange Coalition Ready to Go
--------------


6. (SBU) Following the CEC's announcement, Tymoshenko,
Lutsenko, and Kyrylenko emerged from a two-hour meeting with
the President and "preliminarily" signed a coalition
agreement on the steps of the Presidential Secretariat.
According to OU leader Kyrylenko, the formal coalition
agreement will be signed on the opening day at the Rada.
Tymoshenko told the press that they would like to see the
Lytvyn Bloc in the coalition to form a more stable majority,
but the ball was in Lytvyn's court. (Note. Lytvyn's press
secretary said October 16 that the Lytvyn Bloc was not

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conducting negotiations with anyone about coalitions. End
note.)


7. (SBU) Kyrylenko also said that the two parties had reached
agreement on amendments to the two most controversial laws -
the CabMin law and the law on the status of MPs. He added
that OU-PSD wants a law on the opposition acceptable to both
the opposition and the government. Tymoshenko said that
among the first laws the new Rada convocation will consider
will be a law on preterm elections of the KYIV City Council
and Mayor. In addition, the two blocs and the President
discussed laws on imperative mandate for Rada members and the
powers of governors. Lutsenko said the agreement with all of
its appendices will be made public on October 17.


8. (C) Comment. Many of these finer details, such as whether
BYuT will be allowed to name governors, will be very
contentious. Both blocs owe a lot of political favors to
constitute members and there is a fight for positions. In
addition, Tymoshenko is naturally loathe to give back any
powers to the President that Yanukovych already successfully
wrested away, and Yushchenko does not want to share any of
his remaining powers with the new Prime Minister. There has
not yet been any comment from President Yushchenko regarding
the signing of this coalition agreement. End comment.

Regions Not Giving Up
--------------


9. (SBU) The Party of Regions issued a statement on its
website that a coalition that reflects the will of the
maximum number of Ukrainians possible should be formed in the
new Rada, but the proposed orange coalition split the
country, with "irresponsible politicians putting their
ambitions above the national interest." Regions also stated
its intention to do everything possible to form the
coalition. Regions MP Miroshnychenko said in a television
interview that announcements of an orange coalition were
premature because there were many steps to go through in
seating a new Rada before a coalition could be announced. He
added that the possibility of 150 Regions MPs not taking
their seats could still not be ruled out, a precedent, he
said, started by the orange team in the previous Rada. He
said the party would consider it if the orange camp continued
to violate legal and constitutional norms and ignored all the
voters who did not vote for BYuT or OU. MP Chornovil said
that Regions will initiate coalition negotiations with BYuT
and OU-PSD beginning in mid-November. He added that the
orange camp's announcement on October 15 was only related to
the intention to form a coalition, but not the actual
formation.


10. (U) Visit Embassy KYIV's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor