UKRAINE: CLOCK TICKING ON RADA AND COALITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002588 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: CLOCK TICKING ON RADA AND COALITION FORMATION KYIV 00002588 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Political Counselor Kent Logsdon for reasons 1.4(b,d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary. The Central Election Commission announced the official election results late on October 15, which triggers the next steps in seating the new Rada and then the formation of a government. The CEC must promulgate the results within 5 days, the Rada must open within 30 days after promulgation, and the new coalition formed within 30 days from the Rada opening. A group of deputies from the new Rada (representing each of the factions that successfully made it into the Rada) will meet within ten days of the promulgation of the final results to determine the opening session date -- always a Tuesday; once the Rada members take their seats, a presidium of five representatives from each of the factions will run the Rada proceedings until a Speaker is elected. BYuT leader Tymoshenko and OU-PSD leaders Lutsenko and Kyrylenko signed a preliminary coalition agreement on the steps of the Presidential Secretariat immediately after the CEC announced the final results and said some major differences had been resolved. Nevertheless, they must still come to agreement on the finer points of some key laws and reconcile the part of the Our Ukraine that dislikes Tymoshenko, if the orange coalition is to be successful and Tymoshenko is to get the premiership. To this end, Tymoshenko told the press that they would like the Lytvyn Bloc to join the coalition, which would give them an additional 20 seats to bolster their razor thin three-seat majority of 228. ¶2. (C) Comment. We would not be surprised if these timelines slip a bit -- as they did in 2006 when coalition negotiations dragged on for months -- if the orange team cannot work out all the details of its cooperation. If all involved parties adhere to the legally-mandated timeline, the Rada should hold its first session no later than November 13 (although it could be November 6 or even October 30 if things moved along quickly) and a coalition formed within 30 days after that (approximately December 13 -- or earlier if the Rada convenes on November 6 or October 30). A decision by the Lytvyn Bloc to join BYuT and OU-PSD could speed things up because it would form a more stable 248-member majority. If Lytvyn Bloc stays neutral, as it has indicated is its preference, 
negotiations with those in Our Ukraine opposed to Tymoshenko and with Regions could drag on until mid-December. Bottom line is that a coalition agreement signed now is no guarantee of either an agreed orange coalition in the Rada or the premiership for Yuliya Tymoshenko. End summary and comment. CEC Announces Results, Clock Starts on Rada Formation -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The CEC announced the official results of the September 30 elections late on October 15. Neither the vote count nor the seat allocation changed between the preliminary and final results: Regions - 34.37% (175 seats),BYuT - 30.71% (156 seats),OU-PSD - 14.15% (72 seats),Communists - 5.39% (27),and Lytvyn Bloc - 3.96% (20 seats). The CEC now has 5 days to promulgate the election results. This in turn will start the clock on seating the new Rada, which must hold its first session within 30 days of the promulgation of results. The only other legal delay could be more court challenges. Socialist Party representative Valentyna Semenyuk told the press that they have five days to challenge the results in the High Arbitrage Court. (Note. The Socialists already appealed the election to the High Administrative Court, but the Court chose not to hear the case. End note.) ¶4. (SBU) The Rada will be convened by former Speaker Moroz, either at the request of the President or by no less than one third of the new MPs. First, the previous Speaker (or the First Deputy Speaker in his absence) should organize a preparatory group consisting of newly-elected MPs -- each faction nominates one MP to the group for every 15 MPs in its faction, meaning that Regions and BYuT will have the largest delegations -- to set the date and the agenda for the Rada's opening session. This group should meet no later than 10 days after the promulgation of the election results. If the Speaker does not do convene the group, the new MPs nominated to the group can convene the meeting themselves. ¶5. (SBU) At the fist Rada session, generally on a Tuesday, the MPs will take their oath of office, read by the oldest MP (by our count this will be Communist Ivan Herasymov). President Yushchenko will give a speech, and the Rada will begin tackling a number of administrative issues, including assigning committees and electing a Speaker. The constitution mandates that after the opening of the Rada, a coalition must be formed within 30 days. This suggests that if all sides stick to the legally-dictated timeline, and if KYIV 00002588 002.2 OF 002 the CEC results are promulgated on October 20, there should be a Rada no later than November 13 (30 days actually expires on November 19, but since that is Monday the last possible Tuesday session would be November 13) and a coalition no later than December 13. Election of the Speaker is not mandated to happen at a specific time, but traditionally has been the new Rada's first order of business. Until a Speaker is elected, a temporary 5-member presidium made up of the MP who chaired the preparatory group and representatives of the top four vote-getting Rada factions (meaning everyone but Lytvyn Bloc) will alternate running sessions on a rotating day-by-day basis, as happened in 2006. Orange Coalition Ready to Go -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Following the CEC's announcement, Tymoshenko, Lutsenko, and Kyrylenko emerged from a two-hour meeting with the President and "preliminarily" signed a coalition agreement on the steps of the Presidential Secretariat. According to OU leader Kyrylenko, the formal coalition agreement will be signed on the opening day at the Rada. Tymoshenko told the press that they would like to see the Lytvyn Bloc in the coalition to form a more stable majority, but the ball was in Lytvyn's court. (Note. Lytvyn's press secretary said October 16 that the Lytvyn Bloc was not SIPDIS conducting negotiations with anyone about coalitions. End note.) ¶7. (SBU) Kyrylenko also said that the two parties had reached agreement on amendments to the two most controversial laws - the CabMin law and the law on the status of MPs. He added that OU-PSD wants a law on the opposition acceptable to both the opposition and the government. Tymoshenko said that among the first laws the new Rada convocation will consider will be a law on preterm elections of the Kyiv City Council and Mayor. In addition, the two blocs and the President discussed laws on imperative mandate for Rada members and the powers of governors. Lutsenko said the agreement with all of its appendices will be made public on October 17. ¶8. (C) Comment. Many of these finer details, such as whether BYuT will be allowed to name governors, will be very contentious. Both blocs owe a lot of political favors to constitute members and there is a fight for positions. In addition, Tymoshenko is naturally loathe to give back any powers to the President that Yanukovych already successfully wrested away, and Yushchenko does not want to share any of his remaining powers with the new Prime Minister. There has not yet been any comment from President Yushchenko regarding the signing of this coalition agreement. End comment. Regions Not Giving Up -------------- ¶9. (SBU) The Party of Regions issued a statement on its website that a coalition that reflects the will of the maximum number of Ukrainians possible should be formed in the new Rada, but the proposed orange coalition split the country, with "irresponsible politicians putting their ambitions above the national interest." Regions also stated its intention to do everything possible to form the coalition. Regions MP Miroshnychenko said in a television interview that announcements of an orange coalition were premature because there were many steps to go through in seating a new Rada before a coalition could be announced. He added that the possibility of 150 Regions MPs not taking their seats could still not be ruled out, a precedent, he said, started by the orange team in the previous Rada. He said the party would consider it if the orange camp continued to violate legal and constitutional norms and ignored all the voters who did not vote for BYuT or OU. MP Chornovil said that Regions will initiate coalition negotiations with BYuT and OU-PSD beginning in mid-November. He added that the orange camp's announcement on October 15 was only related to the intention to form a coalition, but not the actual formation. ¶10. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor