UKRAINE: ELECTIONS IN ODESA HEAVILY FAVOR REGIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002239 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: ELECTIONS IN ODESA HEAVILY FAVOR REGIONS Classified By: Ambassador, reason 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) Summary. During the Ambassador's August 31 meetings in Odesa with leaders from Party of Regions (POR),Bloc of Yuliya Tymoshenko (BYuT),and Our Ukraine-People's Self-Defense (OU-PSD),all agreed that POR remained the overwhelming favorite in the predominately blue region -- in 2006, Regions won almost 48 percent of the Odesa vote compared to BYuT's 9.75 percent and OU's 6.5 percent. All party leaders also shared the expectation that the election will be principally free of impropriety. While POR and BYuT representatives were positive about their campaign efforts, OU shared frustration and disappointment in their bloc's decision to manage the campaign from Kyiv. At the same time, the popularity of Odesa Mayor Eduard Hurvits, an OU member, could boost OU-PSD's ratings. He claims that he intends to remain on the sidelines, but activists note his public standing and administrative resources as potential levers of persuasion. End Summary and Comment REGIONS CONFIDENT -------------- ¶2. (U) POR oblast Director Leonid Klimov predicted a quiet election in Odesa, with similar results to the last one. He noted that the party has grown in Odesa over the past 18 months to 55,000 members, which is double the number in 2006. In addition, they have approximately 1000 people working for the party full time. ¶3. (SBU) Klimov explained that Regions is weakest in Odesa city, where Mayor Hurvits's popularity has a strong influence on political results. He considers the situation in Odesa to be a paradox because Regions won the last election definitively (gaining control in 24 of 26 regions),but both the Governor and Mayor are from the orange camp. However, he believes that the orange team's infighting -- with OU and BYuT trying to beat each other -- is helping Regions. Still, Klimov was concerned that his opponents may be tempted to use administrative resources to cheat and expressed the need to keep the election clean and fair. He requested Ambassador's support in stressing this point to both the Governor and Mayor. Klimov concluded that Regions' rating is good and they just need good turnout and transparency in the vote to emerge victorious. ¶4. (C) Klimov shared that Regions' approach in Odesa is to stay on message by stressing their success in fulfilling their past campaign promises. He spoke about land reform that now requires municipal and village councils to approve land distribution, rather than individual town executives with potentially selfish motives. He vowed that Regions will run a campaign that is by the book, in full accordance with the law, and noted that his party is not engaging in any black PR. Klimov then cited 200,000 booklets that were printed with OU's platform, but without any campaign slogans, and distributed in schools and hospitals, allegedly by the Governor's office. He shrugged in response to Ambassador's question as to who is financing the plethora of billboards in the city displaying Yushchenko's photo, but again, without reference to OU-PSD. (Note: According to the head of OU's executive committee, these were paid for by the Presidential Secretariat - see below). SIPDIS BYUT SELF-ABSORBED -------------- ¶5. (U) BYuT Oblast Director Vyacheslav Kruk spent a significant part of the meeting talking about his experience as a campaign manager and praising Tymoshenko's leadership. Kruk asserted that her charisma will make a big difference, noting that she has a strong following. He cited a recent TV poll that placed Tymoshenko ahead of Yanukovych according to respondents, opinions on who will be the next Prime Minister (47% to 43% respectively). ¶6. (U) Kruk noted that BYuT has been gaining ground quickly since he was put in charge, but he surmised that OU-PSD may do as well as BYuT (possibly 15%-17%) based on Odesa Mayor Hurvits's popularity. Kruk predicted Regions will get over 30% of the vote and said that Progressive Socialist leader Nataliya Vitrenko should not be discounted because she has a good team that knows how to work polling stations effectively. Kruk believed that cheating was possible in the village areas, but not in Odesa city. Still, he thought that the impact would be minimal. Kruk explained that no one wants to get caught and there will be many eyes on this election. ¶7. (C) Answering Ambassador's question regarding Russian influence in the election, Kruk noted that their experts were popular 5 years ago, but now Ukraine's parties have their own KYIV 00002239 002 OF 002 experts who are cheaper and more efficient. OUR UKRAINE-PEOPLE'S SELF DEFENSE DEPRESSED -------------- ¶8. (C) OU-PSD executive committee director Dmytro Tansyura launched into a sobering description of his party's campaign problems by boldly announcing that democracy has ended in Ukraine. He spent most of the meeting confessing that party operatives in Odesa, and elsewhere, have been effectively removed from the campaign by OU's central authorities. Tansyura explained that the Presidential administration is running the show and that he and his colleagues have no influence on the process whatsoever. Tansyura recalled that the party had campaign experts on staff in 2006, but that is not the case today. Odesa's Governor and Mayor had promised Presidential Secretariat Chief of Staff Baloha a 15 percent result for OU, but no one is allowed to actively engage with the public to try to achieve the goal. ¶9. (C) Tansyura posited that none of the parties will be able to influence the election by much: perhaps 1 to 1.5 percent fraud at the most. He noted that 2004 demonstrated that politicians can no longer cheat and get away with it. He therefore predicted that OU will lose by a significant margin. Tansyura cited the following poll results for Odesa oblast -- Regions 28 percent, BYuT 26 percent, OU 8 percent, Communist Party 4 percent, and Progressive Socialists 7 percent, the latter a rating he believed Vitrenko secured by promulgating scandalous propaganda. ¶10. (C) Tansyura predicted that the poor results and restrictions placed on party members and staff will be the death of OU. He believed that members are disenfranchised and explained that those who stood out on the Maidan feel cheated; he fears that people have lost faith in democracy. Still, Tansyura noted that OU's principles are correct and the bloc remains Ukraine's best hope for the future. He confided that the leadership is the problem and therefore the country needs to wait for the elite to grow up. Tansyura's view is that young people are stepping forward, but it remains difficult to live without rules and with leaders who are looking to line their pockets. MAYOR - AN ELECTORAL WILDCARD? -------------- ¶11. (U) Ambassador also met with Odesa Mayor Hurvits, who spoke briefly about the election campaign and his role. He explained that 96 parties are currently operating in Odesa and he intends to ward off any potential conflict between them. While the city's residents are not politically active or involved to a significant degree with the election, he was concerned that tensions may arise between the large number of competitors. Hurvits also declared that 350 polling stations commissions will operate in the city and that all venues are now prepared for the election. ¶12. (U) While he was involved in these matters of security and logistics, the Mayor retreated from the notion that he will have influence on the election although he was elected as an OU member. He stated that he is very careful about elections; in 2006, he did not talk to the press in order to demonstrate his neutrality. Hurvits said he did not use influence or resources in 2006 and even though he has political preferences, his official position prevents his involvement. He cited the politically diverse composition of the city council as evidence that he has not exerted any power over previous election outcomes. 13 (U) The Mayor also provided significant detail about a recent controversy in Odesa focused on a Catherine the Great monument in the city center that he is supporting. He told the Ambassador about Odesa's history, but worried that public questioning of the city's decision to raise a monument to a Russian historical figure and his involvement would have a negative impact on OU's ratings. With the political consequences in mind, he decided to wait to unveil the monument until after the election, even though the town council and a majority of Odesa's citizens support his decision to display Catherine in a prominent position in the city. Ambassador stressed that Ukraine can serve as a model for the region by continuing to demonstrate adherence to democratic principals and practices, namely free and fair elections; a message he also shared in the other meetings. ¶14. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor