UKRAINE: ELECTIONS IN ODESA HEAVILY FAVOR REGIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 002239

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/07/2017
TAGS: PGOV UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: ELECTIONS IN ODESA HEAVILY FAVOR REGIONS


Classified By: Ambassador, reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) Summary. During the Ambassador's August 31 meetings in
Odesa with leaders from Party of Regions (POR),Bloc of
Yuliya Tymoshenko (BYuT),and Our Ukraine-People's
Self-Defense (OU-PSD),all agreed that POR remained the
overwhelming favorite in the predominately blue region -- in
2006, Regions won almost 48 percent of the Odesa vote
compared to BYuT's 9.75 percent and OU's 6.5 percent. All
party leaders also shared the expectation that the election
will be principally free of impropriety. While POR and BYuT
representatives were positive about their campaign efforts,
OU shared frustration and disappointment in their bloc's
decision to manage the campaign from KYIV. At the same time,
the popularity of Odesa Mayor Eduard Hurvits, an OU member,
could boost OU-PSD's ratings. He claims that he intends to
remain on the sidelines, but activists note his public
standing and administrative resources as potential levers of
persuasion. End Summary and Comment

REGIONS CONFIDENT
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2. (U) POR oblast Director Leonid Klimov predicted a quiet
election in Odesa, with similar results to the last one. He
noted that the party has grown in Odesa over the past 18
months to 55,000 members, which is double the number in 2006.
In addition, they have approximately 1000 people working for
the party full time.


3. (SBU) Klimov explained that Regions is weakest in Odesa
city, where Mayor Hurvits's popularity has a strong influence
on political results. He considers the situation in Odesa to
be a paradox because Regions won the last election
definitively (gaining control in 24 of 26 regions),but both
the Governor and Mayor are from the orange camp. However, he
believes that the orange team's infighting -- with OU and
BYuT trying to beat each other -- is helping Regions. Still,
Klimov was concerned that his opponents may be tempted to use
administrative resources to cheat and expressed the need to
keep the election clean and fair. He requested Ambassador's
support in stressing this point to both the Governor and
Mayor. Klimov concluded that Regions' rating is good and they
just need good turnout and transparency in the vote to emerge
victorious.


4. (C) Klimov shared that Regions' approach in Odesa is to
stay on message by stressing their success in fulfilling
their past campaign promises. He spoke about land reform
that now requires municipal and village councils to approve
land distribution, rather than individual town executives
with potentially selfish motives. He vowed that Regions will
run a campaign that is by the book, in full accordance with
the law, and noted that his party is not engaging in any
black PR. Klimov then cited 200,000 booklets that were
printed with OU's platform, but without any campaign slogans,
and distributed in schools and hospitals, allegedly by the
Governor's office. He shrugged in response to Ambassador's
question as to who is financing the plethora of billboards in
the city displaying Yushchenko's photo, but again, without
reference to OU-PSD. (Note: According to the head of OU's
executive committee, these were paid for by the Presidential
Secretariat - see below).

SIPDIS

BYUT SELF-ABSORBED
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5. (U) BYuT Oblast Director Vyacheslav Kruk spent a
significant part of the meeting talking about his experience
as a campaign manager and praising Tymoshenko's leadership.
Kruk asserted that her charisma will make a big difference,
noting that she has a strong following. He cited a recent
TV poll that placed Tymoshenko ahead of Yanukovych according
to respondents, opinions on who will be the next Prime
Minister (47% to 43% respectively).


6. (U) Kruk noted that BYuT has been gaining ground quickly
since he was put in charge, but he surmised that OU-PSD may
do as well as BYuT (possibly 15%-17%) based on Odesa Mayor
Hurvits's popularity. Kruk predicted Regions will get over
30% of the vote and said that Progressive Socialist leader
Nataliya Vitrenko should not be discounted because she has a
good team that knows how to work polling stations
effectively. Kruk believed that cheating was possible in the
village areas, but not in Odesa city. Still, he thought that
the impact would be minimal. Kruk explained that no one
wants to get caught and there will be many eyes on this
election.


7. (C) Answering Ambassador's question regarding Russian
influence in the election, Kruk noted that their experts were
popular 5 years ago, but now Ukraine's parties have their own

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experts who are cheaper and more efficient.

OUR UKRAINE-PEOPLE'S SELF DEFENSE DEPRESSED
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8. (C) OU-PSD executive committee director Dmytro Tansyura
launched into a sobering description of his party's campaign
problems by boldly announcing that democracy has ended in
Ukraine. He spent most of the meeting confessing that party
operatives in Odesa, and elsewhere, have been effectively
removed from the campaign by OU's central authorities.
Tansyura explained that the Presidential administration is
running the show and that he and his colleagues have no
influence on the process whatsoever. Tansyura recalled that
the party had campaign experts on staff in 2006, but that is
not the case today. Odesa's Governor and Mayor had promised
Presidential Secretariat Chief of Staff Baloha a 15 percent
result for OU, but no one is allowed to actively engage with
the public to try to achieve the goal.


9. (C) Tansyura posited that none of the parties will be able
to influence the election by much: perhaps 1 to 1.5 percent
fraud at the most. He noted that 2004 demonstrated that
politicians can no longer cheat and get away with it. He
therefore predicted that OU will lose by a significant
margin. Tansyura cited the following poll results for Odesa
oblast -- Regions 28 percent, BYuT 26 percent, OU 8 percent,
Communist Party 4 percent, and Progressive Socialists 7
percent, the latter a rating he believed Vitrenko secured by
promulgating scandalous propaganda.


10. (C) Tansyura predicted that the poor results and
restrictions placed on party members and staff will be the
death of OU. He believed that members are disenfranchised
and explained that those who stood out on the Maidan feel
cheated; he fears that people have lost faith in democracy.
Still, Tansyura noted that OU's principles are correct and
the bloc remains Ukraine's best hope for the future. He
confided that the leadership is the problem and therefore the
country needs to wait for the elite to grow up. Tansyura's
view is that young people are stepping forward, but it
remains difficult to live without rules and with leaders who
are looking to line their pockets.

MAYOR - AN ELECTORAL WILDCARD?
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11. (U) Ambassador also met with Odesa Mayor Hurvits, who
spoke briefly about the election campaign and his role. He
explained that 96 parties are currently operating in Odesa
and he intends to ward off any potential conflict between
them. While the city's residents are not politically active
or involved to a significant degree with the election, he was
concerned that tensions may arise between the large number of
competitors. Hurvits also declared that 350 polling stations
commissions will operate in the city and that all venues are
now prepared for the election.


12. (U) While he was involved in these matters of security
and logistics, the Mayor retreated from the notion that he
will have influence on the election although he was elected
as an OU member. He stated that he is very careful about
elections; in 2006, he did not talk to the press in order to
demonstrate his neutrality. Hurvits said he did not use
influence or resources in 2006 and even though he has
political preferences, his official position prevents his
involvement. He cited the politically diverse composition of
the city council as evidence that he has not exerted any
power over previous election outcomes.

13 (U) The Mayor also provided significant detail about a
recent controversy in Odesa focused on a Catherine the Great
monument in the city center that he is supporting. He told
the Ambassador about Odesa's history, but worried that public
questioning of the city's decision to raise a monument to a
Russian historical figure and his involvement would have a
negative impact on OU's ratings. With the political
consequences in mind, he decided to wait to unveil the
monument until after the election, even though the town
council and a majority of Odesa's citizens support his
decision to display Catherine in a prominent position in the
city. Ambassador stressed that Ukraine can serve as a model
for the region by continuing to demonstrate adherence to
democratic principals and practices, namely free and fair
elections; a message he also shared in the other meetings.


14. (U) Visit Embassy KYIV's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor