UKRAINE: PRESIDENTIAL SECRETARIAT ON VOTING AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001932

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/30/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: PRESIDENTIAL SECRETARIAT ON VOTING AND
COALITIONS


KYIV 00001932 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(b,d).


1. (C) Summary. Roman Bezsmertniy, deputy head of the
Presidential Secretariat for information policy and political
tactician, told Ambassador July 27 that there was no truly
good outcome for the upcoming elections, but he was focused
on making sure Party of Regions stays committed to
participating. In the end he expected a reluctant Regions to
take part, but the Presidential Secretariat was doing all it
could to ensure this happened; Bezsmertniy acknowledged that
he had gone so far as to leak to the press in late July a
fake Regions party list to give the illusion to the public
that Regions was preparing for the campaign. After the
elections, Bezsmertniy expected a Regions-Communists
coalition to take power, unless President Yushchenko took
immediate and decisive action. Of two bad choices
(Tymoshenko and Regions),Bezsmertniy conceded that OU
preferred BYuT, even though Tymoshenko was "the source of all
evil." He thought that OU would be reluctant to join a broad
coalition with Regions after all that has happened, unless
Yushchenko were convinced that true reform was possible. In
the medium term, according to Bezsmertniy, either Tymoshenko
or Yanukovych as coalition partner will turn on Yushchenko as
the presidential elections drew near. Bezsmertniy concluded
that Ukraine needed a generational change in Ukrainian
leaders to truly bring Ukraine the European standards and
values that politicians say they want.


2. (C) Comment. Bezsmertniy's cynical, but honest analysis
underscores how conflicted the Presidential Secretariat and
Our Ukraine are about whether to pursue cooperation with
Tymoshenko or Yanukovych. For all that Yushchenko has been
burned by Party of Regions, that he would consider
cooperation with them again speaks to both his deep distrust
of Tymoshenko as well his need to try to heal the east-west
split in Ukraine. Bezsmertniy's assertion that the
presidential election is starting to factor into all sides'
calculations about short-term alliances is on the mark.
Increasingly, we are hearing that September 30 is merely a
barometer for the next presidential vote in 2009. End
summary and comment.

Getting Regions to the Election
--------------


3. (C) Bezsmertniy's bottom line was that the election
probably will happen, but he would continue to study the
alternatives just to be prepared for all eventualities. His
concern was that if polls started to show that Regions might
lose, they might decide to disrupt the elections rather than
participate in a losing race. Bezsmertniy thought Regions's
strategy of mounting a short election campaign with less
money invested into the organizational structure of a real
campaign--focusing all resources on television ads--indicated
its lack of enthusiasm for the elections. Only the continued
argument that the current Rada is illegal will keep Regions
focused on the elections. That was why the Presidential
Secretariat sought an additional statement by the Pechersk

SIPDIS
court--published July 25--explaining its May 11 ruling that
the CEC should dissolve OU's 2006 party list.


4. (C) Keeping Regions tied into the elections was also why
the Presidential Secretariat had leaked a purported list of
the top 50 names on Regions's party list. (Note. The list
was leaked on Ukrainska Pravda news website on July 24,
complete with handwritten notes attributed to DPM Klyuyev.
End note.) Bezsmertniy explained with glee that he wrote the
list so that the Ukrainian public would believe Regions was
preparing for the election, thus forcing Regions to
participate. He believed all would be clear after
Independence Day (August 24),when the campaign will really
heat up.


5. (C) Bezsmertniy said he was also pessimistic about the
CEC's ability to work productively--because it was so split
between coalition and opposition members, one side could
always block quorum. To test this theory, before the CEC
went on vacation, the Presidential Secretariat had provoked a
conflict within the CEC, which had demonstrated that the CEC
commissioners were split 50-50.

Elections Won't Change Much
--------------


6. (C) Bezsmertniy believed that the September 30 election
would be the first one where the elite breakdown won't
change. Bezsmertniy had thought Lutsenko would be big in
five years, but the early elections have destroyed him.
(Note. Lutsenko himself told Ambassador in January that he
need a couple of years to really build a political party.

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End note.) Tymoshenko was the driver for the election. She
had voted to override Yushchenko's veto of the CabMin law,
leading to a significant imbalance of power, and threatening
impeachment--nothing would stop her from getting to new
elections. In general, Bezsmertniy thought all the major
parties might get fewer votes. His prediction of the voting
was OU-12%, BYuT-18% Regions-29% or more, and CPU-3%.

Coalitions Choices: The Source of All Evil or Yanukovych?
-------------- --------------


7. (C) In terms of post-election coalitions, Bezsmertniy was
equally pessimistic. He did not think that BYuT-OU would
win, but at the same time, after all that has happened, he
did not see a Regions-OU coalition as likely either. In the
end, he thought Regions and the Communists would go back into
a coalition together. However, any combination of forces was
dependent on the President. If Yushchenko took action right
away, there could be an OU-Regions coalition, but the
President would have to be convinced that such a union could
pave the way for reforms. Regarding a possible alliance with
Tymoshenko, Bezsmertniy said "if the source of all evil had a
name, it would be Yuliya Tymoshenko,"--she was power-hungry
and did not want to be in a coalition with anyone. However,
he conceded that a coalition with BYuT was still a better
option than with Regions. In his view, Tymoshenko would only
agree to a coalition government with her as PM, but that
could be okay if OU picks the First Deputy PM--either
Presidential Secretariat Head Baloha or former PM Yekhanurov.


8. (C) In general, Bezsmertniy thought that Yanukovych versus
Tymoshenko as coalition partner in the medium-term didn't
matter, since both will attack Yushchenko as a competitor for
the presidential elections. The bottom line was that there
will be no broad coalition and the next two years until the
presidential election will just be a period of waiting.
Either Yushchenko and Yanukovych will destroy each other or
one will win completely; this conflict will bring Tymoshenko
to the top.

Need for Compromise and Deeper Change
--------------


9. (C) From a long-term perspective, Bezsmertniy thought
Ukraine needed a compromise among elites in order to end
political fighting. All European organizations--Council of
Europe, OSCE, the European Parliament--have signaled that
Ukrainian leaders should reach an agreement. OU and
Yushchenko needed to make a decision soon, he argued;
procrastination was hurting Ukraine. Moreover, Ukraine
needed a generational change--younger people with a European
world view and education--to take over the government.
Issues like the status of Russian language and the conflict
between the two Orthodox churches were artificial--they
didn't fit into Ukraine's proclaimed European course.
Bezsmertniy added that he noticed Yanukovych had stopped
talking about two state languages, but Tymoshenko was still
raising it.


10. (C) Bezsmertniy expected KYIV municipal elections
sometime after the Rada elections. A new constitution would
follow, perhaps by fall 2008. The Presidential Secretariat
had already prepared several completely separate
constitutional projects, one based on the French model, one
on the Polish, and a third, less-developed on the U.S. model,
and was trying to decide which fit Ukraine best. (Note.
Bezsmertniy passed us copies of the drafts. End note.)
Yushchenko would likely announce his preferred constitution
on August 24 (Independence Day).


11. (U) Visit Embassy KYIV's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor