Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
07KYIV1563
2007-06-27 12:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Kyiv
Cable title:  

UKRAINE: JUNE 27 DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE UPDATE -

Tags:  PGOV UP 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7275
PP RUEHDBU
DE RUEHKV #1563/01 1781246
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 271246Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY KYIV
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 2866
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE
RUEHZG/NATO EU COLLECTIVE
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001563 

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: JUNE 27 DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE UPDATE -
HEADING INTO THE SUMMER BREAK AND ELECTION PREP


Classified By: Ambassador, reason 1.4 (b,d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001563

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/27/2017
TAGS: PGOV UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: JUNE 27 DOMESTIC POLITICAL SCENE UPDATE -
HEADING INTO THE SUMMER BREAK AND ELECTION PREP


Classified By: Ambassador, reason 1.4 (b,d)


1. (SBU) Summary: In advance of the long (June 28
Constitution Day) weekend, Ukraine's political scene
sputtered slowly forward towards summer holidays and election
campaigns. President Yushchenko and PM Yanukovych spent
significant time out of KYIV, meeting twice at Boryspil
airport to discuss the way forward. The newly seated Central
Election Commission (CEC) finally achieved a quorum June 25
and distributed regional oversight portfolios, but it did not
act on canceling the 2006 Our Ukraine (OU) electoral bloc
list. On June 26, the Constitutional Court (CC) announced it
had rejected MP petitions appealing Yushchenko's decrees
dismissing three judges appointed by Kuchma on the
Presidential quota; this move should help clarify the
confusing staffing on the court, including who will act as
chair. On June 27, the Rada, which Yushchenko and many
consider inquorate due to the mass resignations of opposition
MPs, concluded its summer session, with Speaker Moroz failing
in his gambit to gain first reading consideration of
constitutional amendments that would further strip the
presidency of powers in favor of the Rada and Cabinet of
Ministers. Internal bickering about a potential electoral
megabloc between OU, Yuri Lutsenko's People's Self Defense
(PSD),and the Pravytsya (Union of Right Forces) continues;
current polls suggest five political forces would clear a
three-percent threshold in new elections: Regions, BYuT, OU,
Communists, and PSD. End Summary

Central Election Commission: coalition majority scores
-------------- --------------


2. (SBU) On June 25, the newly seated CEC held its first
plenary session with the minimum quorum of ten commissioners
present. The eight coalition-associated commissioners voted
for a plan assigning oversight of various provinces to
specific commissioners; the coalition-associated
commissioners will oversee provinces representing the
majority of Ukraine's population, including the eastern and
southern provinces which have supported Yanukovych/Regions in
the 2004 and 2006 election cycles. Opposition-associated
commissioner Pysarenko argued that coalition commissioners

would oversee regions comprising 70% of all voters and
complained to reporters afterwards that the majority refused
to incorporate any opposition-suggested alterations to the
distribution.


3. (C) Note: The CEC did not act on the politically related
issue some in the coalition, including Speaker Moroz and
Justice Minister Lavrynovych, claim is required to provide
full legal basis for new elections: the cancellation of the
2006 Our Ukraine electoral bloc list, which would make it
impossible to name replacements to the Rada for the OU MPs
who resigned earlier in June. Some commentators have
suggested the lack of final resolution may be an intentional
effort to avoid lending unambiguous legal legitimacy to a new
round of elections. CEC Chair Shapoval told Ambassador in
mid-June that there was no clear legal basis for him to act,
given recent changes in legislation, and that a political
decision would be required. Yushchenko, Yanukovych, and
Shapoval met June 20 to address CEC-related issues, and it
was hoped that the meeting would clear a way forward,
including on the OU cancellation issue. That did not happen
June 25. Yushchenko and Yanukovych met briefly at Boryspil
Airport after Yushchenko's return from Turkey June 26; press
reports indicated that the CEC was one of the issues
discussed, though no details were available.

Constitutional Court - moving towards personnel clarity?
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4. (SBU) Ever since Yushchenko signed decrees in late
April/early May dismissing the three judges on the
Presidential quota appointed by his predecessor Kuchma and
the trio (Stanik, Pshenychny, Ivashchenko) refused to vacate
the court, the court has been beset by the question of who
legitimately sits on and even chairs the court. On June 26,
the Court's press service announced that the Court had
rejected June 19 petitions by MPs appealing against
Yushchenko's right to dismiss the three judges (note: the
Constitution as amended December 8, 2004 gives the president
the right to appoint and dismiss a third of the 18 judges on
the court). Speaking at a June 26 congress of judges,
Ex-Chair Dombrovsky complained of unprecented pressure on the
court by all sides.


5. (C) Comment: The Court decision rejecting the appeals
should clarify the personnel situation on the court, but the
next Rada will still need to consider/seat Yushchenko's
nominees, and the court will likely remain split and

KYIV 00001563 002 OF 002


indecisive on politically sensitive issues.

The Rada closes: Moroz' parting shot at Yushchenko fails
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6. (SBU) The Rada closed its current session mid-day June 27
with PM Yanukovych and most of the Cabinet in attendance;
presidential nominees at Foreign Affairs and Defense stayed
away, in keeping with Yushchenko's contention that the Rada
is inquorate and no longer legitimate. The morning
proceedings began with ad hominem open mike attacks on
Yushchenko from representatives of all three coalition
parties. Speaker Moroz had tabled a series of proposed
constitutional amendments late June 26 for potential first
reading consideration in the Rada's final scheduled plenary
session June 27; the amendments would have stripped the
President's right to name high-ranking military officers,
security service personnel, and governors, eliminated one of
the grounds to dismiss the Rada, and made it easier to
impeach the President by removing the requirement for
Constitutional Court review. However, Regions resisted
Moroz' gambit; PM Yanukovych, in his brief remarks during the
closing ceremony, indicated constitutional amendments should
be made when there was more stability in the country and
after all political forces and international experts had time
to consider the proposals.

Electoral Preparations: Regions, BYuT focused, OU distracted
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7. (SBU) There are increasing signs of parties gearing up for
elections, with Regions and BYuT more focused; in contrast,
Our Ukraine remains distracted with internecine quarrels.
When we asked young rising Regions MP Yuriy Miroshnychenko
where he would be spending his vacation after the June 27
conclusion of the Rada, he smiled in replying: "27
provinces." Both BYuT MPs (Shaho, Syvulsky) who normally
meet with us as part of a regular multi-party gathering of
MPs whom we sent to NATO HQ last November were last minute
cancellations for a June 25 lunch, due to intensified party
organizational work in their home provinces of Dnipropetrovsk
and Ternopil.


8. (SBU) President Yushchenko, in Turkey for Black Sea
Economic Cooperation (BSEC) meetings, and Presidential
Secretariat head Baloha both sent rhetorical signals June 26

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in favor of a wide "megabloc" formed around OU and Lutsenko's
PSD. Lutsenko reiterated OU and PSD's common views,
challenged Pravytsya to join or fade into irrelevancy on its
own, but then added that the bloc still has not agreed on a
name, final percentages of slots on the list, or places on
the list - issues outstanding since early June. OU MPs
Prokopovych and Ruslana Lyzhychko separately told Ambassador
June 19 that OU and PSD almost certainly would end up running
separately, though they disagreed on whether that would be a
net plus (Prokopovych) or minus (Ruslana). Polls currently
suggest five parties would clear the three percent threshold:
Regions, BYuT, OU, Communists, and PSD.


9. (SBU) At the June 25 MPs lunch, Ambassador urged parties
to consider an informal election "code of conduct" in which
party leaders would publicly endorse refraining from
politicizing traditionally polarizing issues such as NATO and
language use during the upcoming campaign. MPs from Regions
(Miroshnychenko, Vecherko) and Our Ukraine (Prokopovych,
Ruslana Lyzhychko, Yakovyna) agreed this would be ideal, but
suggested that fringe forces like the Communists and Natalya
Vitrenko would still bring NATO into electoral campaign play.
Miroshnychenko suggested that the Universal, and its
commitment to put NATO accession to a referendum vote,
represented a common position; in reply, Yakovyna reminded
Miroshnychenko that the draft OU-Regions coalition agreement
initialed in June 2006 had more forward-leaning language on
NATO, and Prokopovych added that Regions had backed away from
the implied deal during Universal discussions to endorse a
Membership Action Plan (MAP),since that was separate from
accession/referendum discussions. Ruslana called us June 26
to say that she had briefed Baloha on the code of conduct
proposal.


10. (U) Visit Embassy KYIV's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor