UKRAINE: ELECTIONS PROCESS STILL BUMPY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 KYIV 001458

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/13/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: ELECTIONS PROCESS STILL BUMPY

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Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (C) Summary. Prime Minister Yanukovych and Party of
Regions members are now openly talking about their election
preparations and have told us that June 15 will be the last
day the Rada is in session. The Rada must still acknowledge
the resignations of at least another 72 members of the
opposition, a process so far painfully dragged out by a
bitter Speaker Moroz, in order to deprive the Rada of a
quorum and give Yushchenko the constitutional and legal basis
for pre-term elections as agreed to on May 27. At that
point, according to Regions faction leader Bohatyreva, PM
Yanukovych will announce on television June 15 that Regions
considers the Rada to be no longer in session. However,
Chairman of the Central Election Commission Shapoval and his
deputy expressed concern that the new CEC was already deeply
divided along political lines and that the legal basis for
the elections was shaky at best; if elections went forward,
it would have to be for political reasons. They also were
worried about increased chances of voter fraud stemming from
changes in the parliamentary election law.


2. (C) Comment. Now that Regions is also talking about
elections, all three major parties seem agreed on going to
the polls on September 30, but we will watch to see what
actions they take to end this political crisis. A statement
by Yanukovych that Regions believes that the Rada's plenary
session is over would an extremely positive step toward the
final implementation of the May 27 deal. Concerns remain,
however, that the opposition could fail in its effort to
deprive the Rada of its quorum, in large part because the new
election law could prevent the CEC from canceling the Our
Ukraine party list. Further complicating matters would be a
ruling by the appellate court that Our Ukraine does not have
the right to annul its list because of objections from one of
the original OU bloc members, Kinakh's Party of
Industrialists and Entrepreneurs which joined the coalition
in March before the crisis began. The result could be that
the CEC may be forced to keep seating new MPs, dragging the
process out even further. In the longer run, Shapoval's
concerns about election fraud are serious and the process
will need to be monitored closely. Given the distrust
between political forces and how much is riding on the
outcome of these elections, it will be important for the U.S.
and international community to keep the pressure on to ensure
that the commitment to clean elections not get lost in the
political calculations. End summary and comment.

Yanukovych: A Straight Path to Elections
--------------


3. (C) At a June 12 meeting with the Ambassador and former
Ambassador Pifer, PM Yanukovych appeared relaxed and
confident that September elections would happen - as long as
the opposition carried through on its promise to have 151
Rada deputies resign and if the courts allowed the Central
Election Commission to abolish the OU and BYuT election
lists. He reiterated the importance of holding pre-term
elections on a legal basis within the framework of
Constitution as part of the May 27 agreement. In
Yanukovych's view, all the other major obligations of the
agreement had been fulfilled; what was needed was the
resignation of 151 opposition deputies in accordance with the
Rada's rules of order. Once that occurred, Article 82, Part
2 of the Constitution gave the President a legal basis upon
which to call elections. As of June 12, 79 deputies had
resigned; another 72 resignations were needed. Yanukovych
repeated several times during the meeting that this was the
responsibility of the opposition, not the coalition. He said
that he understood some deputies did not want to resign, but
that "this is a question of party discipline that is up to
the opposition to enforce." According to his information, at
least "50 OU deputies did not want to resign."


4. (C) Nevertheless, in Yanukovych's mind, the path to
pre-term elections was clear. He said that he would suggest
to the President that there be one final plenary meeting of
the Rada on June 15. In his vision, all the deputies,
including those who had resigned, plus the President and
Prime Minister, would come to the Rada. The Rada would pass
some final pieces of economic-related legislation and then
the Rada plenary session would be closed to enable deputies
to prepare for pre-term elections. Yanukovych was not sure
whether Yushchenko would accept his proposal, but he stressed
that this was a Party of Regions' proposal, he was not
speaking for his coalition members, and that this had been
announced publicly. If the resignation process was still
ongoing, the Rada could always be called back into session at
a later date to hear the rest of the list of resignations,
Yanukovych added.


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5. (C) Yanukovych acknowledged that Speaker Moroz and
others in the Rada did not want elections, but was confident
that they would not interfere in the process - "completion of
the agreement does not depend upon whether or not Moroz wants
elections." Yanukovych also predicted that if the 151
deputies did not resign, then this would reflect badly on the
President and that it was important that Yushchenko
understand this. This would not be the fault of the
coalition, but of the opposition. However, Yanukovych
stressed, the opposition still had time. If not in June,
then they could still resign in July. Yanukovych noted that
during negotiations, he had sought to find other legal
grounds to hold pre-term elections, but the President had
insisted - and had been confident that he could fulfill his
end of the compromise agreement.

...But Also a Procedural Issue
--------------


6. (C) According to Yanukovych, in addition to the issue of
the resignations, the only remaining problem is the
nullification of the electoral lists of the opposition
parties - so that once deputies resign, they won't be
replaced by the next names on the party lists. Yanukovych
said that this was not a simple issue -- those on the list
had rights. And, according to Yanukovych, at least 42
individuals had applied to the courts to protect those
rights. Yanukovych acknowledged that OU and BYuT had held
their party congresses and voted to nullify their lists, as
required by law. However, Regions believes that these
decisions alone were not a basis for the CEC to make a
decision. In Yanukovych's view, this decision could only be
made by the courts and that the CEC would not be able to
abolish the lists if the district courts upheld the rights of
those who had objected to the party decisions to nullify the
lists. According to Yanukovych, the opposition parties could
appeal these decisions to appellate courts, and if necessary,
appeal further to a higher administrative court. He believed
that only after the court process is concluded would the CEC
have the right to nullify the lists.

PM Still Looking for a Broad Coalition
--------------


7. (C) In spite of all the political turmoil, Yanukovych
stressed that the government must continue working,
especially on economic issues. This was especially true
since public opinion polls had demonstrated that the majority
of people were not in favor of early elections. In
Yanukovych's mind, the best alternative would be for OU and
Regions to join forces in a broad coalition. Yanukovych
noted that the crisis had "made us much closer than we were
in the spring" and that a broad coalition would be possible
either with or without pre-term elections. And, in
Yanukovych's view, a new broad coalition would result in the
Socialists and Communists joining BYuT in opposition.
Whatever the result of the next few days and the final push
to implement the May 27 agreement, Yanukovych emphasized that
he saw "no tragedy" coming. It was important to keep working
every day. In his view, the coalition had fulfilled all of
its obligations under the political compromise. Now it was
up to the opposition and the President.

Bohatyreva: PM Will Announce End of Rada Friday
-------------- --


8. (C) Regions faction leader Raisa Bohatyreva on June 13
echoed Yanukovych's comments to the Ambassador that June 15
would be the last day Regions works in Rada plenary session
and added some more specifics. She and a few other Regions
MPs had written a short statement for Yanukovych to read
Friday June 15 on television. The PM would announce that
Regions was finished with Rada work and was now preparing for
the elections. She and MP Borys Kolesnikov, a close Akhmetov
ally, met with NSDC Secretary Plyushch on June 12 to tell him
about the statement and to ask for presidential support for
the Rada to work until Friday in order to pass a packet of
legislation important to Regions. She said that this packet
included: the CabMin's social-economic plan for 2007; the
privatization program for 2007-2009; a law on commodity
exchanges; a law on the government procurement system, which
she said had been quite controversial; and a law on regional
policy. Plyushch said it was unlikely that that Yushchenko
would come to the Rada Friday or sign any new laws because
the coalition had broken too many promises to the President,
but Bohatyreva said they will go through with the plan
without the President's assistance because if they did not
stop work on Friday, they would have used up the last chance
for a peaceful resolution to the crisis.


9. (C) Regarding the slow pace with which opposition MPs'

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resignations were being accepted by the Rada, Bohatyreva
thought this would not be a major obstacle to fulfilling the
agreement. She believed that the Rada could finish reading
the names of those who had resigned by Friday June 15. In
terms of the CEC's current inability to dissolve the OU party
list, she thought that an appeal that is sitting with the
appellate court right now could resolve this by ordering the
CEC to cancel the party list. She said Regions would back
the court decision and would not challenge it. Bohatyreva
also said that she had asked Communist leader Symonenko to
help pressure Moroz to accept defeat and close the Rada
plenary. (Comment: Publicly and privately, other members of
Regions have also begun to speak openly about upcoming
elections. Kolesnikov gave a long interview to Dzerkalo
Tyzhnya, in which he talked about party preparations for the
campaign and putting together the party list. MP Yuriy
Miroshnychenko told us that his party was now ready for the
elections, bemoaning the fact that Regions was still fussing
with details of fulfilling the May 27 agreement rather than
preparing for the vote. End Comment.)

CEC: We Currently Have No Legal Basis For Elections
-------------- --------------


10. (C) New CEC Chairman Volodymyr Shapoval and his deputy
Zhana Usenko-Chorna told Ambassador June 12 that the CEC was
in an uncomfortable position and it was not yet clear how
elections would play out. Shapoval expressed concern that
the new CEC was very politicized with a very open division
between the eight coalition-nominated commissioners and the
seven presidential/opposition-nominated commissioners. He
also said that he did not think all 15 commissioners believed
that there would be a September 30 election. (Note: PM
Yanukovych told the Ambassador that he wanted the President,
Speaker and PM to hold a public session with the new CEC to
pledge non-interference in their work of preparing the
elections. Yanukovych made this proposal public June 13.
End Note.)


11. (C) The two commissioners said they had main two
concerns; the first was the shaky legal basis for the
elections. They were unhappy that the date for the elections
had been set before the Rada had actually lost its quorum
(the basis for new elections agreed on by the President, PM,
and Speaker on May 27). Moreover, in the current legal
framework, it was not clear the Rada would actually lose the
151 MPs necessary to deprive the Rada of a quorum. The
amended parliamentary election law (PEL),passed May 29,
prohibited blocs and parties from canceling their party
lists. This meant that while the CEC had already canceled
BYuT's list, it could no longer cancel OU's, meaning that if
OU MPs continue to resign the CEC might have to seat the next
people on the list as new MPs. Thus, Shapoval argued, only a
political decision could make the elections happen. If all
sides honestly adhere to the May 27 agreement, the CEC will
be able to organize the elections.


12. (C) Both Shapoval and Usenko-Chorna expressed concern
that the newly amended PEL reintroduced provisions that had
been removed after the second round of the 2004 presidential
election that could increase the possibility of voter fraud.
Their biggest worry was that the amended law tasked the State
Tax Administration with updating the 2006 voter lists, with
the assistance of the State Border Guard Service. Neither
service had the capability to do this, and the result would
be millions of people included on voter lists at multiple
polling stations. A smaller problem will be the ban on
absentee ballots, for the first time in independent Ukraine's
history, which could discourage domestic observers from
traveling to watch voting. Shapoval also said that at the
local level, it would be very difficult to ensure the honesty
of the poll commissioners. (Note. The law also removes the
stringent requirements for using the mobile ballot box, a
significant source of fraud in 2004, making it relatively
easy to request a ballot be delivered to a voter's home. End
note.)


13. (C) Comment. There is clearly a lot of tension
surrounding the CEC. Although Usenko-Chorna said it was
technically possible for new OU MPs to continue to resign as
soon as they become MPs until the list is used up, new MPs,
who might otherwise never have the chance to be a Rada
deputy, might be less likely to want to resign. In addition,
with the Rada moving at a snail's pace to announce the
resignations of the 169 MPs who already submitted their
letters, the process of continual resignations could take
months. In the meantime, coalition members, including
Yanukovych and Moroz, have been attacking the CEC publicly in
the past few days, demanding that they start replacing the OU
MPs with new parliamentarians and threatening to dissolve the
CEC if it does not comply.

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Tymoshenko -- Not Completely Confident about Elections
-------------- --------------


14. (C) During a June 13 meeting with the Ambassador and
former Ambassador Pifer, opposition leader Tymoshenko was
hopeful that the compromise would hold and that elections
would take place on September 30, but she was not 100%
confident. In her view, elections remain the only way out of
the political standoff. She was matter-of-fact about the
outcome, noting only that either the opposition forces will
get enough votes to form a government or the most votes will
go to Regions, the Communists, and Vitrenko's radicals, and
Yushchenko would cut a deal with Yanukovych to form an
OU-Regions broad coalition. Tymoshenko obviously preferred
the first outcome. She predicted that election fraud would
be a huge problem, not surprisingly based in Donetsk, Luhansk
and Crimea.


15. (C) Tymoshenko described Yanukovych as teetering back
and forth on the question of pre-term elections. She said
that he was under extreme pressure to oppose elections from
the Kremlin, Socialist leader Moroz and Communist Party
faction head Symonenko, as well as the two-thirds of the
Regions faction who had not yet received promises of spots on
the new party list from Yanukovych, Akhmetov, or Klyuev. In
her view, Yanukovych wanted to prevent any splits in Regions
or within the coalition prior to the elections. Akhmetov
continues to be a positive force for elections within
Regions. Like Shapoval, Tymoshenko argued that CEC action to
cancel the OU party list was completely a political decision.
Abolishing the OU party list would not be very difficult.
In her view, if Regions wants this, then they can get it done
in 15 minutes.


16. (C) With regard to the resignations, Tymoshenko said
that 167 deputies had now written letters to Moroz confirming
that they wrote their resignation letters themselves.
Tymoshenko was aware of Yanukovych's proposal to hold a final
Friday, June 15 Rada session. In Tymoshenko's view, the laws
to be passed were routine; this was simply a way to prolong
the outcome. According to Tymoshenko, this June 15 plan was
not important and did not matter much because the opposition
would not be able to go into the Rada and vote since they no
longer have mandates.

Moroz - Fighting a Rear-Guard Action
--------------


17. (C) Privately in separate meetings with Ambassador and
with former Ambassador Pifer on June 11, an angry, desperate
Moroz ranted about Yushchenko's numerous violations of
democracy and promised that God would judge the President.
Moroz said that the quorum article could provide the legal
basis for an election, "if" the opposition can really get to
151, but resigning is a slow process that will take time. If
the Rada does lose its quorum, then the Socialists would
agree to a September 30 election. Moroz said he did not
understand Yushchenko's position because Regions would have
even more seats in a new Rada. If OU wants a broad
coalition, then there was no need for elections; SPU will
leave the current coalition, allowing OU and Regions to unite
now, and happily join the opposition. The "Mukacheve Clan",
Moroz argued, was dictating the President's decisions,
leading him to interfere in the courts and the prosecutor
general's office.


18. (C) Despite his ranting and his continued fight against
elections both publicly and privately, Moroz has begun to
announce the resignations of MPs in line with the procedure
for the opposition to resign and deprive the Rada of a
quorum. On June 8, he announced the resignations of 28 OU
MPs, and on June 12 the resignations of 50 BYuT MPs and one
more OU MP. However, he said that these MPs seats should be
filled immediately by others from the party list and that
their resignations did not provide the "legal field" needed
to hold early elections.

Democratic Bloc Still Not Done
--------------


19. (C) Press reports on June 12 indicated that the election
bloc between People's Union Our Ukraine, People's
Self-Defense (PSD),and Pravitsya was all but finalized. The
bloc will be called "People's Self-Defense--Our Ukraine," and
the spots on the list would be divided up: 54% Our Ukraine,
25% PSD, and 21% Pravitsya In addition, the top five names
on the list will be Lutsenko, OU head Kyrylenko, Defense
Minister Hrytsenko, Foreign Minister Yatsenyuk, and probably
MP Katerynchuk. Hrytsenko confirmed to Ambassador that he
will be on the list, at the President's request, but he does

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not want to be a Rada Deputy. Instead, he plans to go back
to the executive branch, presumably to DefMin if confirmed,
after the election. However, on June 13, Pravitsya co-chair
Tarasyuk said that his bloc objected to the division of the
list, criticizing Lutsenko for being greedy, and the use of
the name Our Ukraine. MP Katerynchuk, representing People's
Self-Defense, told us that the press reports were premature,
although he expected an agreement on June 19. With regard to
the mention of his name as number 5 on the new list,
Katerynchuk laughed, noting that this was a sure sign that he
would not be included in the top five for the bloc.


20. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor