UKRAINE: JUNE 4 UPDATE - KYIV QUIET AS POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 001354 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/04/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL UP SUBJECT: UKRAINE: JUNE 4 UPDATE - KYIV QUIET AS POLITICAL COMPROMISE MOVES SLOWLY AHEAD KYIV 00001354 001.2 OF 003 Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(a,b,d). ¶1. (SBU) Summary. Actions by key political players June 1-2 gave greater cause for optimism that the political compromise announced May 27 is being implemented, although public statements from Prime Minister Yanukovych and Speaker Moroz on June 3-4 suggested that progress may continue to be slow and with contentious moments. The Rada finally passed amendments to the parliamentary election law and the budget, the latter to finance elections, late June 1. In addition, the coalition and opposition agreed on a new composition of the Central Election Commission (CEC)--with the coalition nominating 8 and the opposition 7 commissioners. Yushchenko and Yanukovych also agreed on presidential representative in the Constitutional Court Volodymyr Shapoval as the new Chairman of the CEC. In addition, the President and PM came to an agreement over the contested Prosecutor General's Office (PGO),agreeing to reinstate Medvedko as PG, with Yushchenko's preferred candidate Shemchuk as the first deputy in charge of investigations. Our Ukraine and BYuT held party congresses on June 2 at which they voted to expel all MPs from the Rada, bringing the Rada one step closer to dissolution. It is now up to Moroz to announce the resignations and the CEC to confirm them. However, Yanukovych, Moroz, and Regions faction leader Bohatyreva commented on June 3-4 that the coalition would push for the Rada to continue working for another week, which seemed contrary to the May 27 deal. Late June 4, Speaker Moroz expressed doubt that the opposition had 150 "valid" resignations, noting that the Rada would stay in session until the situation was resolved. That said, advisers to both President and PM confirmed with Ambassador that everything was still on track for a September 30 election. ¶2. (C) Comment. The most recent comments from Yanukovych, Moroz, and Bohatyreva are in line with the rhetoric that they have been using for weeks to spin out the political process. There are several legal hicccups remaining before the opposition MPs can truly resign from the Rada and make it inquorate, but if the political will is there, these obstables can be overcome. As the events of June 1 demonstrated, the coalition can move forward quickly when it chooses to do so, rhetorical posturing aside. However, with September 30 still a long way off, we would not be surprised to see the coalition continue to fight to keep the Rada in session through June prior to the traditional July-August break. End summary and comment. Rada Finally Passes Needed Bills... -------------- ¶3. (SBU) After stalling for much of the last week, the Rada held a June 1 evening session in which they passed amendments to the election law and to the budget, allowing financing for elections, as well as seating a new CEC (below). The final version of the election law included provisions banning absentee ballots and re-introducing a 50 percent voter turnout requirement, both of which have raised some eyebrows (reftel). It also prevents parties from cancelling their party lists after an election--a clause intended to stop factions from resigning from the Rada in the future as BYuT and OU are doing to provide the legal pretext for new elections (See below for details). ...But Not Ready to go Quietly into the Night -------------- ¶4. (SBU) However, after the June 4 Consultative Council--the Rada leadership's weekly Monday meeting--Moroz and faction coordinator Bohatyreva announced that the Rada would continue to work this week, echoing comments made by PM Yanukovych in Odesa June 3. (Note: Yushchenko's most recent decree extended the authorized window for the Rada to work only though June 1. End note.) They announced that the Rada would examine 30 bills submitted by the Cabinet and two by the President. In addition, they claimed that the opposition had to prove that their resignations letters were legitimate and submitted in accordance with established procedures. At a June 4 press conference, Moroz went further, questioning whether the opposition had registerd 150 "valid" resignations with the Rada Secretariat. Moroz claimed that the Rada would stay in session this issue was resolved "legally." When asked for comment, OU staffer Svitlana Gumeniuk told us that Moroz was merely posturing; the only real action remaining would be by the CEC, not the Rada. OU expected CEC action within a week; its MPs would attend Rada sessions until the final decision was taken. ¶5. (C) Privately, foreign policy advisers for the two Viktors seemed more positive that the process remained on track. KYIV 00001354 002.2 OF 003 Yushchenko adviser Chaliy told Ambassador that he was more relaxed than he had been in weeks and that the presidential team was comfortable with where the political compromise had ended up. PM adviser Gryshchenko told Ambassador that everyone was a little uncomfortable with the compromise, but that was a good place to be. Gryshchenko also added that the election cycle would not start in full until 60 days prior to the vote--specifying a start date of July 29 for a September 30 election--but that smart people would start preparations earlier (note: we fully expect Regions and BYuT to be the most organized political campaigners, as they were in 2006). CEC Gets Reconstituted -------------- ¶6. (C) The Rada also voted June 1 on a new slate of CEC commissioners--after the previous CEC failed to work for much of the past two months amidst an organized coalition "sick-out" and charges of politicization on both sides. The new composition is split 8-7 between coalition and opposition nominees. The new CEC has eight holdover commissioners from the previous CEC and one former commissioner who served through 2004 (and was removed in the previous CEC makeover). The new Chairman is Volodymyr Shapoval, who most recently argued Yushchenko's case in the Constitutional Court. His deputy, Zhana Usenko-Cherna, was originally named to the CEC by pro-Kuchma party United Ukraine, but was put forward this time by the opposition; the new Secretary is Tetyana Lukash, sister of Yanukovych legal eagle and Deputy Minister of the Cabinet of Ministers Olena Lukash. A USAID implementing partner who works on election issues commented that with six "newbies" on the CEC, including Chair and the secretary, the CEC could face a steep learning curve in the run-up to the expected September 30 elections. He also said that although it was too early to say what roles various commissioners would play, the positioning of Lukash as Secretary was significant, and gave Yanukovych a direct advocate in the CEC leadership. Opposition Resignations Moving Forward -------------- ¶7. (SBU) After the Rada finished its June 1 votes, OU and BYuT presented Deputy Speaker Martynyuk, who was presiding, with 66 OU and 103 BYuT resignations, for a total of 169 resignations (151 were needed to prevent a quorum). On June 2, the two blocs held congresses where they voted to terminate the mandates of all their MPs. (Note. Interestingly, BYuT announced that a total of 129 of its MPs resigned; but in fact, only 103 did so. Another 26 were expelled for violating faction discipline. OU did not address the issue of MP's who refused to resign. End note.) The resignations must now be announced from the Rada rostrum--which Moroz said he would do June 5 if all the resignations were "valid"--and approved by the CEC. ¶8. (C) Comment. Despite the progress, both factions have hit legal hurdles in the resignation process. Part of the resignation plan called for the CEC to cancel the two blocs' 2006 election lists, so that the newly emptied seats could not be backfilled. However, the old CEC ruled that it could not cancel OU's party list without agreement from OU constituent Party of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of Ukraine (PIEU),headed by current Economy Minister Kinakh. Agreement from PIEU/Kinakh--who have so far refused to cooperate--to cancel the list would be a political signal that the coalition was serious about moving to new elections; it hasn't happened. Separately, a lawsuit filed by a low-ranking member (No. 282) of the BYuT list who says he has the right to be an MP, has slowed the cancellation of the BYuT list as well. It remains to be seen how the new CEC will deal with these challenges. Both factions may be able to avoid this legal snafu by simply continuing to have MPs resign until the party lists are exhausted, but that would slow the process down considerably, require the Rada to stay in session until the process is complete, and continues to raise some fears that along the way the coalition would succeed in buying enough of these transitory MPs to keep the Rada from being dissolved. End comment. PGO Spat Seems Resolved Too (For Now) -------------- ¶10. (C) Another June 1 step in the political compromise was the resolution over the contested PGO. As Tymoshenko previewed May 30, Yushchenko and Yanukovych agreed to reinstate previous PG Medvedko as PG and leave Yushchenko's acting PG Shemchuk in as First Deputy PG, leaving Piskun once again out of the job. What remains to be seen is how the "broad coalition" will work inside the increasingly KYIV 00001354 003.2 OF 003 disfunctional PGO. Shemchuk has already announced that he plans to reopen several high-profile cases closed in January by Medvedko: the April 2005 death of former Interior Minister Kravchenko--a two gun shot wound to the head ruled a suicide--and charges of embezzlement and abuse of office against former Sumy governor Shcherban. Shemchuk also announced new investigations into the charges that Constitutional Court Judge Stanik accepted bribes and the role of Interior Minister Tsushko for the use of force at the PGO on May 24. Opposition Election Bloc Seems Dead, Lutsenko Hits Resistance -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) In pre-election developments, People's Self-Defense Movement (PSD) leader Yuriy Lutsenko announced that talks were over between OU, his group, and Rukh-Pravtisiya (Union of Rightist Forces) to form a "megabloc" for the upcoming elections. In particular, he said that the three elements had been unable to agree on how to distribute and rank spots on a joint list and that the others rejected his suggestion to change the bloc's name to the Union of Democratic Forces, because, in his words, the brand Our Ukraine had been discredited. (Note. On the other hand, OU faction leader Kyrylenko told the press that the talks were continuing and "95 percent" agreed. End Note.) ¶12. (SBU) Lutsenko had quietly restarted his regional rallies in May, which he had suspended in April during the political crisis and negotiations with OU. At a June 3 rally in Mykolayiv, a southern province which went strongly "blue" in 2004 and 2006, Lutsenko ran into counter-protests by far left-wing parties when approximately 30 representatives of the Communists and Nataliya Vitrenko's Progressive Socialists tried to block his press conference and provoked a clash with his supporters. In addition, PSD was denied access to a local Russian Drama Theater, where it had scheduled a press event, and one local TV station canceled its interview with Our Ukraine MP Katerynchuk, a Lutsenko ally, despite a prior agreement to air the interview. ¶13. (U) Visit Embassy Kyiv's classified website: www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev. Taylor