UKRAINE: RADA CONTINUES TO DRAG HEELS WHILE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KYIV 001326

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: RADA CONTINUES TO DRAG HEELS WHILE
LEADERS NEGOTIATE

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Classified By: DCM Sheila Gwaltney for reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (C) Summary. Despite frequent meetings between President
Yushchenko, PM Yanukovych, Speaker Moroz, and opposition
leader Tymoshenko, the Rada has so far failed to approve the
legislation needed to enable early elections on September 30,
as agreed to in the May 27 compromise. Many MPs attribute
this turn of events to Moroz's growing panic that new
elections will remove the Socialists from the political
scene, although Regions so far appears not to have exerted
much effort to deliver votes. The key leaders met again
early on May 31, apparently agreeing to start the Rada's day
with a fast-tracked vote on budget amendments to finance the
elections; Yushchenko amended his decree authorizing a third
day of Rada deliberations. However, Moroz and Communist
leader Symonenko pushed through a proposal to vote on just a
first reading of the budget changes necessary to finance
pre-term elections, with Moroz suggesting the final reading
take place June 1. Yushchenko, on a previously unannounced
day trip to Croatia, responded from Zagreb with an
ultimatum--either the Rada finished the election-related work
May 31 or he would set the election date for 60 days from the
date that opposition deputies submit their resignations to
their factions, thereby depriving the Rada of a quorum. The
Rada reopened at 1600 hours without Moroz--who was still in a
meeting with faction leaders, Yanukovych, and Azarov--with a
fast-tracked procedure on WTO legislation that had already
resulted in nine new laws out of ten on the day's agenda
adopted as of 1800 hours. The Rada also voted to continue
working until 2000.


2. (C) Comment. BYuT and Regions MPs with whom we spoke May
31 agreed that the Rada's slow creep on needed legislation
was the sign of a flailing Moroz looking to derail elections.
If Regions has withdrawn an offer to include Moroz and his
colleagues on a joint list, as BYuT MP Shevchenko claimed to
us, the Socialists would not likely return to a new Rada. So
far, Moroz has managed to slow the legislative process by
calling frequent and long breaks, while his Socialist and
Communist colleagues harangue the idea of early elections.
With an agenda that included not only the election financing,
but votes on a new Central Election Commission composition,
amendments to the parliamentary election law, and 10 new WTO
bills, finishing the task by midnight May 31 will be
daunting. However, it is still possible if there is
sufficient political will. Budget Chair Makeyenko (Regions)
told us that he had a signal last night to finish the
election financing today, but comments on the floor and in
the halls indicated that the level of distrust between the
Regions and the opposition is so high that neither side is
comfortable committing to an end game position, with Moroz'
Socialists and Communists eager to play spoiler roles. End
summary and comment.

High Level Meeting Late May 30
--------------


3. (SBU) After a stormy late afternoon Rada session on May
30, which addressed issues not discussed in the morning
meeting between Yushchenko, Yanukovych, Moroz, and
Tymoshenko, opposition MPs walked out of the session hall,
and Yushchenko convened another high level working session at
the Presidential Secretariat. Tymoshenko, speaking to
reporters later that night, expressed optimism that the
evening dialogue between President and PM had put the process
back on track and the Rada would move forward in a late night
session on agreed-upon legislation. In addition, media
reports indicated that Yushchenko and Yanukovych might have
reached an agreement on resolving fight over the Prosecutor
General's Office (PGO) by restoring former PG Medvedko to his
position and making Yushchenko's preferred candidate Shemchuk
the First Deputy PG with responsibility for investigations.

But Rada Fails to Act
--------------


4. (SBU) However, the Rada failed to pass any legislation in
another acrimonious session starting at 2230 hours. The Rada
debated and voted on pairs of draft proposals from the
coalition and opposition on two issues: special procedures to
appeal acts by the President, PM, and Rada, and imperative
mandate for MPs. No bill received the necessary 226 votes
needed to pass, as the Socialists seemed to play a
particularly unhelpful role. Our Ukraine MPs walked out of
the session exactly at midnight in accordance with the terms
of Yushchenko's May 29 decree--which gave the Rada until the
end of May 30 to act, although BYuT stayed in the hall to
participate in the final votes. Moroz then closed the
session at 0015.


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New Day, Same Story
--------------


5. (SBU) May 31 opened with another unpublicized closed-door
pow-wow between Yushchenko, Yanukovych, Tymoshenko,
Moroz--this time with the faction leaders, according to BYuT
MP Shevchenko. This meeting agreed that the Rada would start
its morning session with a debate and a vote on budget
amendments to provide financing for new Rada elections,
Shevchenko added. At 10:00--with Yushchenko off on a
surprise one-day trip to Croatia--Moroz opened the session
with presentations from MinFin Azarov and Budget Committee
Chairman Makeyenko. Azarov, reportedly not a fan of new
elections, tried to raise other issues besides the
election-related expenditures, much to the annoyance of
opposition MPs. Makeyenko announced that the elections would
cost 360 million UAH, which would be funded via VAT receipts,
which he said were up 54% this year. He also suggested that
the Rada combine all three readings of the bill into one
vote, so that it could be passed quickly.


6. (SBU) Socialist and Communist MPs immediately attacked the
election financing proposal, arguing that it was impossible
to finance elections that still have no legal basis, and that
using the money in this manner was harming Ukraine's
peasants, who could better use the government's financial
support. Symonenko suggested that the Rada only hold a first
reading that day--instead of the fast-tracked "three
readings-in-one" vote proposed by Makeyenko. Moroz seconded
the opinion, suggesting that after the first reading, all
factions should send suggestions to the Budget Committee and
the Rada should hold a second reading June 1. The first
reading passed with 386 votes in favor. (Note: it requires at
least one more reading).


7. (SBU) The Rada recessed until 1600 hours so that a new
high-level working group--the PM, Speaker, and faction
leaders--could try to work through remaining differences.
First Deputy Speaker Martynyuk (Communist) chaired the
afternoon session with the announcement that no
election-related bills could be discussed until Azarov and
Moroz returned from their meeting. Instead, the Rada began
with a debate on WTO legislation in a fast-track procedure
which allowed only two comments in favor and two against each
bill before a single vote (as opposed to the normal three
readings). As of 1800, nine laws out of ten on the day's
agenda had been approved, with one more under consideration.
The Rada also voted to keep working until 2000.


8. (C) Comment. The Socialists' renewed vigor in attempting
to undermine the deal is likely rooted in electoral
desperation. Recent polls show that the party would have
trouble passing the three-percent barrier to get into a new
Rada, with many former Socialist voters turned off by Moroz's
decision to form a coalition with Regions and the Communists.
BYuT MP Shevchenko told us that there had been a deal on the
table May 26, just prior to the May 27 agreement on early
elections, for Regions and the Socialists to form a joint
party list, with Regions giving the Socialists 22 slots of
the first 180 and ranking Moroz high on the list, but as of
May 31 the deal was off, leaving Moroz few other options
besides a rear guard fight.


9. (C) Comment cntd. The high level of distrust between
Regions and the opposition is also contributing to the Rada's
lack of progress. Throughout the morning session, coalition
MPs periodically taunted the opposition, demanding they
demonstrate their commitment to the May 27 deal by resigning
immediately. One BYuT MP responded on the floor by saying
that the opposition would not resign until all legislation
was completed because they had no faith that the coalition
would do anything to maintain the bargain unless the
opposition was sitting in the session hall. Privately, BYuT
MPs Volynets and Bilorus told us that the opposition had
already lost a few MPs who had changed their minds about
resigning out of fear that the plan would not work; both MPs
remained optimistic that they had enough resignations (151
required) to deny the Rada a quorum. BYuT deputy Vinskiy and
OU leader Kyrylenko both reiterated to the press May 31 that
the opposition would follow through on its resignation
strategy--once all the necessary legislation was adopted.
Makeyenko told us that he took the political signal he had
been given to fast-track the budget amendments as a sign that
the agreement was moving forward, but that he could not say
with certainty that Regions had made a final decision on
whether to push for the election-related laws to be adopted.

Tsushko as Possible Fall Guy?

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10. (SBU) Adding to the sense that the Socialists may end up
as the fall guys, BYuT MP Shkil told us that currently
hospitalized Interior Minister Tsushko had suffered neither a
heart attack nor a poisoning, but was dodging criminal
accountability for the use of force at the PGO on May 24.
(Note: checking oneself into the hospital is a time-honored
way since Soviet times for state officials to avoid
recriminations.) According to Shkil, part of the deal
between Yushchenko and Yanukovych on resolving the PGO
confusion was that the new PG would open criminal proceedings
against Tsushko for the May 24 events.

Leaked CC Document Could Be Added Pressure
--------------


11. (SBU) News website Glavred May 31 ran a purportedly
leaked copy of a May 12 Constitutional Court draft
decision--updated May 29--that ruled Yushchenko's April 26
decree dissolving the Rada was unconstitutional. The CC press
service later denied that any such ruling had been drafted.
The CC lacked a quorum May 29, including two justices listed
on the draft decision, and the CC continued to lack the
quorum of 12 on May 31, with at least seven judges absent
(either on annual or sick leave).


12. (C) Comment. The leak could be another tactic to
increase pressure on Yushchenko, by reminding him that the CC
is not on his side. It may be worth noting that of the 12
judges who are listed as supporting the decision, three are
the judges Yushchenko dismissed, leaving only nine official
judges supporting the ruling--one fewer than the ten required.


13. (U) Visit Embassy KYIV's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor