C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KYIV 001117

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL UP
SUBJECT: UKRAINE: NEGOTIATIONS ON EARLY ELECTIONS STALL,
FRUSTRATION GROWING

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Classified By: Ambassador for reasons 1.4(a,b,d).


1. (C) Summary. Continued disagreement over the date of
elections has paralyzed what initially seemed like a
breakthrough agreement on May 4 between President Yushchenko
and Prime Minister Yanukovych to hold early parliamentary
elections. The working group Yushchenko and Yanukovych named
May 4 to finalize the details has not completed its tasks,
although presidential/opposition representatives claim the
"small package" of legislation is ready except for the date
of the elections. Yushchenko and the opposition want
elections in July, while Regions wants them in the fall. The
Communists and Socialists do not want elections at all,
playing a spoiler's role in working group discussions.
Yushchenko's allies have accused Yanukovych of dragging out
the negotiations until he forces his way on a later date for
elections; on May 10 Yushchenko also fired a third
Constitutional Court judge, Volodymyr Ivashchenko, the
remaining Kuchma appointee on the Court. In turn, Yanukovych
accused Yushchenko of sabotaging the May 4 agreement and
called for European and Russian mediation. Privately,
influential Deputy Prime Minister Kluyev argued to Ambassador
May 10 that a Regions-OU coalition was the only outcome that
would change the current stalemate.


2. (C) Comment. There is unlikely to be any final decision
without Yanukovych, who is still in Spain recovering from
elective knee surgery on May 8. However, an announcement by
DPM Azarov to the press that Yanukovych should return to KYIV
on May 11 means that progress might be possible over the next
few days. Speaker Moroz instructed the rump Rada (meeting
without the opposition) to be on call for possible sessions
on either May 12 or May 14. The date of the election hinges
on constitutional and legal provisions that say early
elections are held the last Sunday in a 60-day period
starting when the decree calling for new elections is
promulgated. Based on the May 4 agreement, Yushchenko had
anticipated that the entire package would be agreed in short

order, allowing elections to be held in early July. By our
calculations, if agreement between the President and PM is
reached and a new decree issued before May 17, then elections
could technically take place on July 8. A decree on or
shortly after May 17 would push an election to July 15. If
dragging continues and no agreement is reached, then it is
likely that a vote would be pushed to the fall, as Regions is
advocating. End summary and comment.

Yushchenko Says Vote Will Move Ahead, Fires Another Judge
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3. (SBU) After a May 10 meeting with the working group,
Yushchenko told the press that the group was not doing its
delegated job and said that he would convene an extraordinary
meeting of the National Security and Defense Council to make
all necessary election-related decisions if the working group
continued its "fruitless dialogue." The President and his
Deputy Chief of Staff Vasyunyk have reiterated that the
"small package" of legislation agreed to on May 4 was more
than 80 percent finished and just awaiting a date for new
elections. The President on May 10 also issued a decree
dismissing Constitutional Court Judge Ivashchenko, the
remaining CC judge appointed by former President Kuchma, for
violating his oath of office.


4. (C) Comment. Ivashchenko's dismissal on the surface
appeared to be an act of frustration aimed at getting the
PM's attention, as the prior April 30-May 1 dismissals of
judges Pshenychniy and Stanik did, although it also could
have been an additional hedge against an adverse ruling,
since the Court has not stopped reviewing the April 2 decree.
Interestingly, one of the other CC judges told us privately
May 10 that Ivashchenko had indeed violated his oath of
office by revealing information about secret deliberations,
while there had not been similar grounds to fire Stanik and
Pshenychniy Amidst threats from the Rada to prepare
resolutions aimed at dismissing judges on the Rada's quota,
Court Chair Dombrovskiy made a public statement pleading for
all sides to stop dismissals and allow the court to work.
End comment.

Yanukovych Gets Mad, Calls For Mediators
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5. (SBU) In response to the firing of Ivashchenko,
Yanukovych--who has been in Spain since May 8 for knee
surgery and may return as early as May 11--publicly
criticized Yushchenko via a CabMin press release for
violating the May 4 agreement and obstructing the work of the
judicial branch. He also blamed the President for being at
fault for Ukraine's current political crisis. The PM then

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called on the EU and Russia to serve as mediators in settling
the stalemate, adding: "the continuing neutrality of our
strategic partners is not promoting the settlement of the
political conflict but is only adding confidence to the
President in his illegal actions." (Note: The U.S., Russia,
and sometimes EU are generally referred to as strategic
partners by Ukrainian politicians.)


6. (SBU) The Russian Foreign Ministry immediately issued a
statement expressing the willingness of the Russian
Government to assist Ukraine in resolving the stand-off. In
contrast, European Commissioner for External Relations
Ferrero-Waldner said that the EU should not mediate, as long
as Ukraine is working through internal political issues
within a democratic framework.

DPM Kluyev: Broad Coalition is Only Solution
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7. (C) Deputy Prime Minister Kluyev--an influential figure in
Regions who has been an occasional channel to leading
opposition figures--told Ambassador May 10 that there will be
no change in the political balance inside the Rada after
elections--Regions, BYuT, and OU will all do about the same.
The only way to effect a change in the political situation,
he argued, would be for a Regions/OU coalition without new
elections. In the past, he had opposed such a coalition--OU,
in his opinion, had proved to be splintered and inconsistent
at the bargaining table--but now Regions wanted a broad
coalition. He agreed that there would be costs if a full
Rada did not come back into session and that Ukrainian
politicians may be missing an opportunity to fix the problems
in the constitution. He concluded by saying that Ukraine
needed stability for its economy to grow, but this required a
coalition that included the President's forces to calm things
down.


8. (C) On the prospect of new elections, Kluyev claimed
Tymoshenko was the only one benefiting from instability. He
charged that her plan was for the elections to eliminate the
Socialists and Communists, and if she could raise the
election threshold (currently set in the Law on Elections as
three percent), she would eliminate OU as well. Kluyev
doubted there would be any change in the threshold to enter
the Rada--for OU to agree to it would be tantamount to
political suicide.


9. (U) Visit Embassy KYIV's classified website:
www.state.sgov.gov/p/eur/kiev.
Taylor