C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000097

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/IR AND NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/24/2017
TAGS: PREL PINR IR KU KUWAIT IRAN RELATIONS
SUBJECT: (C) SENIOR KUWAITI SHI'A CLERIC: RAFSANJANI
BELIEVES IRANIANS TURNING AGAINST AHMADINEJAD

REF: A. 06 KUWAIT 3733

B. 06 KUWAIT 630

Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reason 1.4 (d)


1. (C) Summary: A senior Kuwaiti Shi'a cleric told Poloff
January 22 that Rafsanjani believes Iranian public opinion is
shifting away from Ahmadinejad and towards Iranian
"moderates." Sayed Mohammed Baqer Al-Mohri, who met
privately with Rafsanjani January 17, said Rafsanjani
attributed this shift to Ahmadinejad's failure to deliver on
campaign promises, his appointment of incompetent officials,
the rising cost of goods, and Iran's increasing isolation in
the international community. According to Al-Mohri,
Rafsanjani supported the idea of a dialogue between the U.S.,
Saudi Arabia, and Iran on Iraq. Al-Mohri urged the U.S. to
talk to Iranian moderates, like Rafsanjani, saying "you have
your channels." On Iraq, Al-Mohri strongly and repeatedly
stressed the need for the Iraqi Shi'a to engage and "appease"
Saudi Arabia, and argued that the Sunnis in Iraq must not be
excluded or marginalized from the political process. End
summary.


2. (C) During a January 22 meeting, senior Kuwaiti Shi'a
cleric Sayed Mohammed Baqer Al-Mohri gave Poloff a read out
of his recent visit to Iran and "private meeting" January 17
with former president Hashemi Rafsanjani. Al-Mohri said
Rafsanjani told him that for the past eight months Iranian
public opinion had been steadily shifting away from
Ahmadinejad and his supporters and towards more "moderate,"
pragmatic Iranian leaders, as evidenced by the Assembly of
Experts elections in December in which moderates made
substantial gains. According to Al-Mohri, Rafsanjani
attributed this growing disillusionment with Ahmadinejad to
his failure to deliver on campaign promises, Iran's
increasing isolation in the international community, the
rising price of essential goods, and the incompetence of some
officials appointed by Ahmadinejad. Al-Mohri said Rafsanjani
believed public opinion would continue to shift away from
Ahmadinejad.


3. (C) Al-Mohri claimed Rafsanjani wholeheartedly agreed
with him on the need for a dialogue between the United
States, Saudi Arabia, and Iran on Iraq. Asked if Rafsanjani
commented about the President's new Iraq strategy, Al-Mohri
did not respond directly, but noted that the Iranians wanted
to avoid escalating tensions with the Americans in Iraq. He
said the Iranians were "not happy" with the raid on their
offices in Irbil, but were optimistic that those arrested
would soon be released. He encouraged the U.S. to open a
dialogue with Iranian moderates, like Rafsanjani. Al-Mohri,
who travels regularly to Iran, characterized the current
economic situation in the country as "dismal." He observed
that the price of bread, eggs, and meat had surged and was
now much higher than in Kuwait.

Iraqi Shi'a Must "Appease" Saudi Arabia
--------------


4. (C) Expressing his concern about the situation in Iraq,
Al-Mohri strongly and repeatedly emphasized the need for
Iraqi Shi'a to reach out to and "appease" Saudi Arabia. "The
Saudis should be given their share in Iraq," he argued.
Al-Mohri said he had conveyed this message to Shi'a leaders
in Iraq, many of whom he claims to know personally and
maintain regular contact with. He told them that if the
Saudis rebuffed their approaches they should seek U.S.
mediation. Al-Mohri stressed that, although a minority, the
Sunnis in Iraq should not be marginalized or excluded from
the political process.

Bio Note
--------------


5. (C) According to several contacts, including Al-Mohri
himself, Al-Mohri is the representative of Iraqi cleric Ali
Al-Sistani in Kuwait and is authorized to collect khums
(Shi'a religious tax) on his behalf. Al-Mohri also claims to
have close connections to many of Iran's top leaders,
including Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and
former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani. Al-Mohri seems to
relish his connections and regularly drops names in meetings.
He told Poloff in this meeting that he had not met with
Ahmadinejad by choice, suggesting he disagrees with
Ahmadinejad's political and religious leanings.

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For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s


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LEBARON