SCENESETTER FOR ADMIRAL FALLON'S APRIL 3 VISIT TO

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 000427 SIPDIS SIPDIS NOFORN STATE FOR NEA/ARP E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2022 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR IZ IR KU SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR ADMIRAL FALLON'S APRIL 3 VISIT TO KUWAIT REF: 06 KUWAIT 4568 Classified By: Ambassador Richard LeBaron for reason 1.4 (b) ¶1. (S/NF) Welcome to Kuwait, Admiral Fallon. I regret that I will be away during your visit but look forward to greeting you on your next visit to Kuwait. We have requested meetings for you with Amir Shaykh Sabah Al-Sabah, Prime Minister Shaykh Nasser Mohammed Al-Sabah, and First Deputy Prime Minister, Defense Minister, and Interior Minister Shaykh Jaber Mubarak Al-Sabah. They are likely to focus on Iraq, Iran, and issues related to U.S.-Kuwait strategic ties. Kuwait is ONE of our closest allies in the region and has provided tremendous support for Operation Iraqi Freedom. Kuwait has also provided substantial economic assistance to Lebanon and the Palestinians, demonstrating the Kuwaiti leadership's strong commitment to regional stability and security. ¶2. (S/NF) Kuwaitis value highly their relationship with the U.S., and few Kuwaitis have forgotten or fail to appreciate the U.S.-led liberation of their country. Nevertheless, in the press of regional issues, the Kuwaiti leadership sometimes feels taken for granted and its friendship undervalued by the U.S. They would welcome sincere appreciation for their support and reassurances of the U.S. commitment to its long-term strategic relationship with Kuwait. Domestic Issues: Government-Parliament Tensions -------------- -- ¶3. (S/NF) Tensions between the Government and Parliament have been growing since opposition groups swept the elections last June. These tensions came to a head in late-February when ten opposition parliamentarians submitted a no confidence motion on the HEALTH Minister, a prominent member of the ruling family and a nephew of the Amir. Rather than risk embarrassment to a ruling family minister, the entire 16-member Cabinet resigned March 4 per constitutional procedures. Shaykh Nasser Mohammed was re-appointed Prime Minister and announced a new Cabinet March 25 after an unusually long consultation period, an indication of the ruling family's uncertainty over how to deal with the increasingly assertive Parliament. Although Kuwaitis were generally positive about the new Cabinet, tensions are likely to flare again as Parliament continues to seek an expanded role in the decision-making process. However this political impasse plays out, Kuwait's relations with the U.S. are unlikely to be affected. Our key interlocutors on military matters did not change in the Cabinet re-shuffle. Kuwait's leadership is strongly committed to maintaining good relations with the U.S. and most Kuwaitis, including many Islamists, view a long-term strategic relationship with the U.S. as both beneficial and necessary. Regional Issues: Iran and Iraq -------------- ¶4. (S/NF) Kuwaitis are increasingly concerned about Iran's belligerent behavior and the potential for a U.S. or Israeli strike against Iran's nuclear facilities, which they believe would provoke Iranian retaliation against Kuwait and U.S. facilities in the country. Kuwaiti officials tell us privately that they believe Iran is developing nuclear weapons and express concern that this could shift the balance of power in the Gulf. However, they are hesitant to provoke Iran by expressing such fears publicly and tend to couch their concerns in terms of the potential environmental impact of an accident at ONE of Iran's nuclear facilities, specifically Bushehr. Kuwait has tried to work within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) to develop a more unified approach to Iran, but internal GCC squabbles have undermined such cooperation. While expressing concern about Iranian actions, Kuwait's leadership routinely stresses the importance of finding a diplomatic solution to the current tensions. Kuwait has been working closely with us to increase their readiness vis-a-vis Iran -- more Patriots, more attention to infrastructure protection, and better information sharing. ¶5. (S/NF) Kuwait and Iraq are slowly rebuilding their diplomatic and economic relations. The Iraqi Embassy in Kuwait opened in July 2006 and is headed by a charge d'affaires. Kuwait has informally selected an ambassador to Iraq but is waiting for Iraq to appoint an ambassador before announcing its own appointment. High-level Iraqi officials continue to visit Kuwait on a regular basis, including former Prime Ministers Ibrahim Jaafari and Iyad Allawi in February KUWAIT 00000427 002 OF 002 and March, respectively. In October 2006, Kuwait hosted an Iraq Compact meeting, which an Iraqi delegation headed by Deputy PM Barham Salih attended. In late-2006, the two countries held talks on border and security issues and agreed to a joint mechanism to address border security incidents and maritime border protocol issues. Kuwait has committed more than $575 million in aid to Iraq in the form of $135 million in grants and $440 million in soft loans. However, little of this assistance has been disbursed so far due to difficulties in identifying implementers on the Iraqi side and ineffective prioritizing on the part of the Iraqi government. Kuwait's leadership repeatedly stresses the importance of giving the Iraqis more responsibility for security and reducing the U.S. footprint in Iraqi cities. Kuwait is not collecting the official debts owed by Iraq, but has also been slow to formally forgive these, fearing demands for domestic debt forgiveness in its Parliament. Suggested Points to Raise -------------- ¶6. (S/NF) Kuwait's leadership will want to hear from you primarily on Iraq, Iran, and issues related to the U.S.-Kuwait strategic relationship. The following are some suggested points you could raise on these issues: Iraq: -- Thank Kuwait for its generous support -- Brief on the progress of the Baghdad Security Plan -- Outline the next steps for achieving security in Iraq -- Discuss anticipated troop levels and impact on Kuwait Iran: -- Reassure GOK of U.S. commitment to diplomatic solution -- Stress U.S. preparedness to ensure Gulf security -- Outline U.S. concerns about Iranian activities in Iraq U.S.-Kuwait Strategic Relationship: -- Express appreciation for Kuwait hosting U.S. forces -- Emphasize the importance of bilateral relationship and strengthening overall Gulf security ********************************************* * For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s Visit Kuwait's Classified Website: http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/ ********************************************* * LeBaron