CABINET RESHUFFLE LIKELY PRIOR TO MARCH 5 NO

C O N F I D E N T I A L KUWAIT 000292

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/ARP

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2017
TAGS: PGOV KDEM KU NATIONAL ASSEMBLY
SUBJECT: CABINET RESHUFFLE LIKELY PRIOR TO MARCH 5 NO
CONFIDENCE VOTE ON HEALTH MINISTER

REF: KUWAIT 258 AND PREVIOUS

Classified By: CDA Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Our contacts almost unanimously agree that there will
be a Cabinet reshuffle prior to the March 5 no confidence
vote on Minister of Health Shaykh Ahmed Abdullah Al-Ahmed
Al-Sabah. The Minister, who is also the Amir's nephew, was
brought before Parliament February 19 for questioning over
alleged corruption and mismanagement in the Health Ministry.
According to several contacts, at least 24 parliamentarians
support the motion, which needs only 25 votes to pass. If
voted on and approved, Shaykh Ahmed would be the first
Minister to be removed from the Government through a
parliamentary vote of no confidence. According to our
contacts, the Al-Sabah leadership is unlikely to risk that
embarrassment and may either reassign Shaykh Ahmed to another
portfolio or ask him to resign. One Islamist MP predicted
the entire Cabinet would resign after their
regularly-scheduled weekly meeting on March 4, allowing
Shaykh Ahmed to save face and the Prime Minister to appoint a
new Cabinet.


2. (C) While agreeing on the probability of a Cabinet
reshuffle, our contacts disagree on its likely scope. Some
suggest the Prime Minister may use the opportunity to replace
as much as half of the Cabinet with more technocratic
Ministers, rather than those affiliated with a particular
political bloc. Others, perhaps more realistically, predict
that at most only one or two Ministers will be changed. One
liberal contact downplayed the significance of any reshuffle,
saying that whether a Minister's name was "Ahmed" or "Nasser"
did not matter if the underlying problems were not addressed.
"What we need is a fundamental change in mentality, in the
way the state is run," he argued. "We need to choose
Ministers based on their competence, not their affiliation to
this or that group." Ultimately, he said Kuwait's
Constitution should be amended to give more powers to
Parliament, a view advocated by several other prominent
liberals in recent op-eds.


3. (C) Comment: The submission of a no confidence motion
against a ruling family member from the main Al-Sabah branch
- those eligible to become Amir - is unprecedented in Kuwait
and represents a recent trend of more open criticism of the
ruling family. Ironically, most contacts claim internal
ruling family power struggles are behind the attack on the
Health Minister, and specifically accuse Shaykh Ahmed
Al-Fahd, the former Minister of Energy and current National
Security Bureau President, of orchestrating the questioning
and subsequent no confidence motion to undermine the Prime
Minister and prove he is still needed in the Cabinet.
Regardless of the outcome, tensions between the Government
and Parliament are likely to remain high as increasingly
assertive parliamentarians continue to try to expand their
role in the political decision-making process here. End
comment.

********************************************* *
For more reporting from Embassy Kuwait, visit:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/?cable s

Visit Kuwait's Classified Website:
http://www.state.sgov.gov/p/nea/kuwait/
********************************************* *
TUELLER