Iskandar and Slow-Selling Cars: Malaysia Economic Update

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000787 SIPDIS STATE PASS USTR - WEISEL AND JENSEN STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE AND EXIMBANK STATE PASS FEDERAL RESERVE SAN FRANCISCO TCURRAN USDOC FOR 4430/MAC/EAP/J.BAKER TREASURY FOR OASIA AND IRS GENEVA FOR USTR SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EFIN EINV MY SUBJECT: Iskandar and Slow-Selling Cars: Malaysia Economic Update for April 2007 ¶1. (U) Summary: The GOM unveiled a package of incentives to attract foreign investors to the Iskandar Development Region, a newly established special economic zone in southern Malaysia. Incentives include an exemption from the GOM's usual requirement that ethnic Malays be given a 30% equity stake in new businesses. The GOM also announced it would eliminate capital gains taxes on the sale of real property throughout the country. Meanwhile, Malaysia's automobile industry remains in a slump, with new and used car sales continuing to decline, and the GOM still unable to find a strategic partner for national car company Proton. End Summary. Malaysia Launches the Iskandar Development Region -------------- -------------- ¶2. In November 2006, Prime Minister Abdullah Ahmad Badawi launched an ambitious plan to transform much of Johor state, bordering Singapore in southern most Peninsular Malaysia, into a special economic zone and metropolis which Malaysia hopes will rival Hong Kong and Shenzhen. At 2,217 square kilometers and costing an estimated RM 17.7 billion (USD 5.14 billion),this project, known as the Iskandar Development Region (IDR),will cover an area more than three times the size of Singapore, and incorporate Senai Airport to the north, the Port of Pelepas to the southwest and Johor Port in Pasir Gudang to the southeast. Under the Ninth Malaysia Plan (2006-1010),the GOM has identified IDR as one of the key future engines of growth for Malaysia and hopes IDR will woo foreign direct investment (FDI) and compete with Singapore for manufacturing plants and logistics businesses. The GOM also plans to create within IDR an "EduCity", a medical hub, a halal products hub, a biofuel hub, three "cyber cities," a resort area and the world's oldest mangrove park. Kick Starting the Project -------------- ¶3. The government hopes the private sector, especially foreign investors, will take lead in developing the IDR. Prime Minister Abdullah said the government will inject RM 4.3 billion (USD 1.25 billion) for infrastructure projects under the Ninth Malaysia Plan while the state investment agency, Khazanah Nasional, will pump in RM 3.4 billion (USD 988 million) to kick start the project. The private sector is expected to provide an additional RM 10 billion (USD 2.9 billion) in the early phase of the plan. The government is counting on attracting RM 370 billion (USD 107.5 billion) worth of direct investments to the IDR over the next 20 years. For the first five years, the GOM expects IDR to garner RM 47 billion (USD 13.7 billion) in investments, the bulk of which are expected to come from Middle Eastern and ASEAN countries. Incentives for Investors -------------- ¶4. At the Invest Malaysia 2007 conference in March, Abdullah announced an "initial incentive and support package" to transform Southern Johor into a more attractive investment destination. These incentives include an exemption from rules under the GOM's long running racial preference policy (still referred to here as the "New Economic Policy" or NEP),that majority ethnic Malays and indigenous peoples (which the GOM collectively refers to as "bumiputras", literally "sons of the soil") be given a 30% equity interest in all new business as part of the NEP's overall goal of lessening the economic disparity between Malaysia's ethnic Chinese minority and its Malay majority. Other incentives include freedom to source capital globally, freedom to employ foreign workers within the approved IDR zones contingent upon the amount of space occupied in these areas, and an exemption from corporate taxation on activities conducted within the IDR zone and outside Malaysia for 10 years from commencement of operations. In addition, the cabinet is expected to consider shortly a new competitive investor incentive package that will be above and beyond the existing incentives and include more tax holidays, exclusive land deals and even concessions. Too Good to Be True? -------------- ¶5. The exemption from the NEP requirement that bumiputras be given a 30% stake in new businesses was quite surprising because only months ago policy makers had stood firm for the need to retain this requirement. However, after the incentives were announced the Prime Minister's influential son-in-law, Khairy Jamaluddin, was quick to point out that the incentive package will not apply to all IDR zones and will be applicable only to certain targeted sectors, such as creative industries, educational services, financial advisory and KUALA LUMP 00000787 002 OF 003 consulting, health, logistics and tourism. Moreover, in order to qualify for the incentives, the companies must conduct their business activities exclusively within the zones or outside Malaysia and not compete with Malaysian companies for domestic business. Analysts said the government may be using IDR as a test case for gradually doing away altogether with the NEP's 30% bumiputera equity interest requirement, which many believe has been a deterrent in attracting FDI to Malaysia. Certain Restrictions Lifted on Property Transactions -------------- -------------- ¶6. In a move to encourage purchases of Malaysian property, especially in the IDR and high-cost condominium units in the city center, Abdullah announced simultaneously that the government would remove the real property gains tax (RPGT) throughout the country beginning April 1. Under existing rules, foreign investors must pay a property gains tax of 30% on the sale of property if the sale is made within the first five years of the acquisition of the property. In addition, Bank Negara lifted the limit on the number of credit facilities a non-resident could use to fund the purchase or construction of residential and commercial properties in Malaysia. Previously, a non-resident was limited to three credit facilities from local financial institutions for the purchase or construction of property. ¶7. Analysts welcomed the announcements although they questioned whether the relaxed rules will help correct the current over-supply of property on the Malaysia market though they do believe these moves will help promote investment in the IDR. In 2006, the number of residential overhang was 25,645 units with a total value of RM 4.18 billion (USD 1.2 billion. Though the number of overhang has increased, the overhang rate declined from 20.5% in 2005 to 17.7% in ¶2006. A Citigroup Research report noted, "We believe the latest move sends a clear signal to the world that the government is aware of rising competition and willing to take proactive steps to compete. Judging from the series of initiatives ranging from tax incentives to the lifting of employment restrictions for companies in the IDR, it does appear that the political will is strong to ensure its successful development". New Car Sales Continue Their Decline -------------- ¶8. Meanwhile, sales of new vehicles in Malaysia, Southeast Asia's largest passenger car market, fell 17% in March compared to the same month last year, the 14th straight month that sales have declined. Last year, new vehicle sales declined 11% to 490,768 units. According to the Malaysian Automotive Association (MAA),it is becoming harder for car owners to purchase new automobiles because of the difficulties they are having selling their existing vehicles. Nevertheless, the MAA said sales volume is expected to be maintained for April as carmakers introduce new models and incentives. Last year, the association had predicted car sales would recover this year. ¶9. Econ FSN spoke with an automobile analyst who said vehicle sales will likely be negative throughout this year. The analyst pointed out that the government's National Auto Policy (NAP),which aims to boost competitiveness in the domestic markets by cutting import duties every year, is part of reason for the downward sales in addition to costlier fuel, high tolls and difficulty that some buyers experience in obtaining financing. Glut of Used Cars -------------- ¶10. Another factor behind the slump in new car sales is the glut of used cars on the market. According to one estimate, more than 600,000 used cars remain unsold in Malaysia, forcing almost one in five used car dealerships to go out of business, scale down their operations, or switch to other businesses. The situation has become so dire that several car dealers' associations have called for the GOM to consider giving car owners cash incentives to voluntarily scrap old vehicles and purchase new ones. Under the proposal, owners of cars more than 15 years old would be asked to exchange these vehicles for a RM 5,000 (USD 1,461) voucher that could be used as a down payment on a new car. Proton Still Searching for Strategic Partner -------------- ¶11. The GOM missed its self-imposed March 31 deadline to name a KUALA LUMP 00000787 003 OF 003 strategic partner for its ailing national car company, Proton Holdings Bhd. Proton, which faces shrinking market share in an increasingly competitive domestic market, has been reported to be in talks with US-based GM Motors and German carmaker Volkswagen. Local automotive companies like DRB-Hicom, Naza Group and Mofaz Group have also expressed an interest in the partnership. Prime Minister Abdullah, met with Volkswagen officials recently, said the talks with VW are still on. Khazanah Nasional Bhd, the GOM's investment arm, owns around 43 percent of Proton. Meanwhile, Proton adviser and former Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad commented that Proton's new partner should be a local company, otherwise Proton will no longer be a national car. LAFLEUR