PAS AND UMNO EYE KELANTAN ELECTION; KEDAH AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 000352 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/23/2027 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM KISL MY SUBJECT: PAS AND UMNO EYE KELANTAN ELECTION; KEDAH AND PERLIS PINE FOR MAHATHIR REF: KUALA LUMPUR 153 - ANWAR ATTACKS NAJIB Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) The Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS) and the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) in PAS-controlled Kelantan state are positioning themselves for a tough fight in the next national election. During polchief's February 5-9 visit to the northern Malaysian states, PAS leaders in Kelantan did not take their continued control of Kelatan for granted and, with Anwar Ibrahim's help, intended to campaign on a platform of clean governance that would exploit corruption scandals and the Altantuya murder case to hit at UMNO and Deputy Prime Minister Najib. UMNO leaders told us they had shifted their strategy away from punishing voters in Kelantan (the only state in opposition hands) and toward positive engagement through federal development funding. We encountered strong pro-Mahathir sentiment among senior UMNO and police officials in the states of Kedah and Perlis, Mahathir's home turf. PAS spoke glowingly of Anwar Ibrahim as a political asset, while UMNO leaders described Anwar as a spent force. End Summary. Kelantan - PAS Works to Hold the Last Opposition State -------------- -------------- ¶2. (C) During our early February visit to Kelantan, the only Malaysian state in the hands of an opposition party, we found both PAS and UMNO leaders expecting a serious fight in the next national election. With PAS holding power by a margin of only one state assembly seat, PAS politicians were not taking their continued rule for granted. Wan Rahim, a veteran PAS leader and the State Assembly Speaker, was on balance optimistic of a PAS win, though he and other voiced concern over UMNO manipulation of the electoral process. Wan Rahim noted with satisfaction that a new generation was assuming leadership in PAS and in the state government, naming in particular State Executive Council member Husam Musa (see below). New, dynamic leaders could attract the critical youth vote. To generate votes, PAS was also introducing some new social programs in Kelantan, such as an insurance scheme for persons over 60. In another attempt to attract public support, we heard that the PAS government was attempting to arrange a musical performance by Yusuf Islam, aka Cat Stevens. While not mentioned by PAS leaders, others described PAS decisions to re-open pool halls and single-sex night clubs as attempts to appeal to the youth. ¶3. (C) Good governance and anti-corruption would be major campaign themes, according to Wan Rahim and other PAS leaders. PAS intended to highlight kick-back scandals reportedly involving Deputy Prime Minister Najib and the Altantuya murder case, also allegedly linked to Najib, in order to paint the UMNO-led government as corrupt and morally bankrupt (a tactic we heard also from PAS leaders in Kuala Lumpur and Kedah state). According to others, PAS together with Anwar Ibrahim's Keadilan Party had already started to use this campaign tactic in the "ceramah" (Muslim sermon) circuit. ¶4. (C) In a conversation that failed to show his engaging and charismatic side, up-and-coming PAS leader Husam Musa, who acts as the state's de facto deputy Chief Minister, told polchief he was uncertain if PAS could remain in power. "The Malays like Pak Lah (Prime Minister Abdullah) and, in keeping with the Malay nature, they are comfortable with the slow pace he has set for the country and the economy," Husam noted with deadpan sarcasm. A continued liability for PAS was its inability to work with the ethnic Chinese due to PAS's intention of "driving the Chinese out of Malaysia," he explained with equal insincerity. ¶5. (C) A well-connected Malaysian journalist resident in Kelantan told us that neither side was taking any chances in the coming election, particularly not PAS. The state PAS leadership had been constantly monitoring the electoral list in all districts and "moving" voters from PAS strongholds to areas that the Islamic party won or lost by a narrow majority. ¶6. (C) Former UMNO politician and current PAS ally Ibrahim Ali described UMNO's prospects for capturing the state as "dim" due to lack of credible party leadership in the state. KUALA LUMP 00000352 002 OF 003 He described the UMNO Liaison Chief in Kelantan, Anuar Musa (see below),as "extremely unpopular" because of Anuar's reputation for corruption and immoral behavior. Ibrahim Ali stated that UMNO might replace Anuar Musa with someone from Kuala Lumpur in order to revamp the state party machinery before the general election. He hoped, however, that PM Abdullah would not remove Anuar Musa as "he is the perfect UMNO leader that would ensure PAS retains the state." UMNO Switches from Stick to Carrot -------------- ¶7. (C) Anuar Musa, UMNO's senior party leader in Kelantan, painted a different picture of UMNO's prospects. He argued that voter sentiment had begun to swing against PAS, as signaled by PAS' defeat in a by-election in December 2005. People in Kelantan were "fed up" with the ineffective PAS government that "used poverty among the people to maintain its hold in the state" rather than working for development. Nevertheless, the election would be hotly contested and UMNO needed to shift into campaign mode now. Anuar added that UMNO had switched its strategy in the state from "punishing the state for voting for the opposition" to providing development assistance to show "UMNO's sincerity in helping the Malays in the poorest state in the Peninsula." He added that this was one of the reasons why the Federal Government allocated RM 7.6 billion to Kelantan under the Nineth Malaysian Plan. In addition, the state UMNO leaders would request an additional RM 100 million from the Prime Minister for poverty eradication projects. On the other hand, the PAS state government's newly announced insurance plan represented a "blatant misuse of the state's funds" for political purposes and would be subject to corruption, Anuar stated without betraying any sense of irony. Kedah and Perlis - Mahathir Still Looms Large -------------- ¶8. (C) Polchief encountered strong pro-Mahathir sentiment coupled with stinging criticism of PM Abdullah among senior UMNO and police officials in Kedah and Perlis states, considered Mahathir's home turf. UMNO Kedah cabinet minister and national UMNO Youth Information Chief Azimi Daim stated, "the former PM still has a lot of followers at the grassroots in Kedah" due to the rapid economic development which took place under Mahathir. In contrast, Kedah's economic growth under Abdullah had been sluggish and medium and small-scale businesses were suffering. Azimi warned that Abdullah needed to stimulate the economy and patch up differences with Mahathir before calling an election, otherwise the situation "will have an impact on UMNO's seats in the state." In front of six other senior police officers from different divisions, Special Branch Police Superintendent Awaludin bin Jadid, who received us in Perlis in place of the ailing state police chief, lambasted PM Abdullah for his ineffectiveness and inability to deliver economic growth. "Since Abdullah took over, nothing seems to be moving especially in the economic field," he said. Awaludin lamented Mahathir's decision to step down in 2003 and heaped praise on the former Prime Minister, explaining that "all the development in Perlis is due to Mahathir." (Comment: Awaludin later stated that he had served in Mahathir's security detail, which only partially explains why he was willing to be so disloyal to his current Prime Minister in such a large meeting. End Comment.) ¶9. (C) PAS State Commissioner for Kedah and veteran leader Azizan Abdul Razak appeared to be under no illusion that PAS would gain ground in Kedah in the next election. Azizan noted PAS' strong showing in the 1999 polls. PAS' support remained consistent in 2004, yet it had lost many of its seats. He attributed this to an unfair playing field, such as lack of access to the media, and manipulation of the electoral process, including substantial gerrymandering. Azizan and other PAS leaders dismissed the notion that Mahathir would be a factor in the next election. UMNO culture was such that once a leader steps down from his position, UMNO members would forget him because "he has nothing to offer his followers and supporters." Azizan commented that when Abdullah originally took over as Prime Minister, PAS had given him the benefit of the doubt due to Abdullah's Islamic credentials. This resulted in toned-down criticism of the Prime Minister. PAS had been disappointed, however, in Abdullah's performance and personal conduct. The last straw had been the photos of Abdullah placing his hand on the bare shoulder of movie star Michele Yeoh during an KUALA LUMP 00000352 003 OF 003 awards event. "What kind of Islamic leader is Abdullah if he can do such a thing?" Azizan asked. PAS intended to make good use of the "scandalous" photo in its election campaign. ¶10. (C) We met Azizan in PAS state headquarters, a large and recently built complex that resembled a substantial factory located in the midst of rice fields. The interior of the building could accommodate thousands of assembly line workers or party faithful. Rather than representing a white elephant, Azizan explained the facility was built so that PAS could hold large meetings and rallies indoors in a PAS-owned building, obviating the need to apply for a police permit that may not be granted to their opposition party. Role of Anwar Ibrahim Debated -------------- ¶11. (C) Anwar Ibrahim and his role in the future election constituted a consistent theme throughout our meetings in the northern states. PAS leaders spoke glowingly of Anwar and claimed he would be an important asset in the coming campaign, regardless of whether Anwar was able to stand for election in his own right. PAS valued Anwar as the "bridge" between the non-Malays especially the Democratic Action Party (DAP) and PAS, and as a name-brand figure able to attract voters. PAS elders such as Wan Rahim and Azizan readily admitted that they found it impossible to communicate with DAP and other non-Malay parties, with Azizan commenting that PAS and DAP were "like chickens and ducks, feeding at the same trough, but unable to talk to one another." Anwar could bridge the gap and hold together a loose working alliance in the face of the ruling National Front juggernaut. (Comment: DAP's alliance with PAS in the 1999 elections seriously damaged DAP's base among ethnic Chinese voters. DAP will be hesitant to reenter a close relationship with PAS. End Comment.) Wan Rahim noted Anwar's value in attracting crowds to campaign rallies. He thought that Anwar could win election anywhere he contested, and implied that Anwar was considering running in Kelantan. A seasoned local reporter in Kelantan argued that PAS needs Anwar because the party lacks a leader of national appeal following the death of their former president Fadzil Noor, with current President Hadi Awang viewed as too much of a firebrand conservative. ¶12. (C) UMNO leaders in Kelatan and Kedah described Anwar Ibrahim as a "spent force" who would not have any impact on UMNO and National Front prospects in the election. Kedah's Azimi Daim stated that Anwar has political leverage with voters in relation to Mahathir, who jailed him, but not to Abdullah, who freed Anwar. Kelatan's Anuar Musa cited Anwar Ibrahim's role in the 2005 by-election, in which Anwar drew thousands to PAS political rallies, yet PAS lost the seat in the end. "If Anwar can't deliver a by-election, how can he have any impact nationwide?" questioned the UMNO Kelantan leader. Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) During the week of our travel in the northern Malaysian states, Malaysia's government-steered mainstream press began a barrage of bold print, feel-good pieces on the excellent state of the nation and progress under Abdullah's stewardship. Our meetings, however, were dominated by grumblings over the country's perceived economic weakness and lack of clear leadership from the Prime Minister, as well as comments on the importance of senior political figures (Mahathir, Anwar) other than Abdullah Badawi. As PAS and UMNO comments clearly indicate, the next election in Kelantan will be hotly contested. LAFLEUR