MALAYSIA'S OPPOSITION DRAWS TENS OF THOUSANDS TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 KUALA LUMPUR 001613 SIPDIS SIPDIS STATE FOR EAP/MTS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/13/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KISL KDEM ASEC MY SUBJECT: MALAYSIA'S OPPOSITION DRAWS TENS OF THOUSANDS TO THE STREETS FOR ELECTORAL REFORM REF: A. KUALA LUMPUR 1604 - OPPOSITION AND POLICE HEADED FOR SHOWDOWN ¶B. KUALA LUMPUR 1377 - RIOT IN TERENGGANU Classified By: Classified By: Political Section Chief Mark D. Clark for reasons 1.4 (b and d). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Malaysia's major opposition parties operating under the election-reform umbrella organization BERSIH on November 10 carried out possibly the country's largest opposition demonstration since 1998, gathering 20,000 or more demonstrators to present an election reform petition to the National Palace. Opposition leaders succeeded in getting critical mass onto the streets despite frank warnings from Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, the national police chief, and others, and despite heavy rains at the time of the protest. Embassy poloffs observed the demonstration from a safe distance. Many of the demonstrators came from the Islamist PAS party. While police completely cordoned off Independence Square, they did not stop the crowds from marching to the National Palace, where opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim delivered their petition. Except for police attempting to disburse participants at two assembly points with water cannons and tear gas, the demonstration remained peaceful as both sides avoided a repeat of the violence that marred the September rally in Terengganu. While the protest garnered international and Malaysian on-line press coverage, Malaysia's government dominated news outlets downplayed the demonstration and focused on disruption to traffic and local commerce. Police arrested and later released about 25 demonstrators. Anwar Ibrahim and others oppositionists are now considering a larger march to parliament in three weeks, as well as petitions to individual Malay rulers. Opposition parties and Anwar Ibrahim in particular can count the November 10 demonstration as a tactical success that reasserts their relevance, though it may not bring them closer to further electoral reform. That Anwar and other opposition leaders proceeded successfully in the face of PM Abdullah's personal warnings should bolster the opposition's resolve. For the same reason, the November 10 demonstration might also result in a hardening of the government's position when faced, as it seems it will be, with prospects for future demonstrations which are viewed as a direct challenge to government authority. End Summary. Stern Warnings from PM; Police Deploy in Force -------------- - ¶2. (U) Ahead of the November 10 election reform/opposition rally by Malaysia's three major opposition parties and civil society groups under the banner of the group BERSIH, the Prime Minister, the Inspector General of Police Musa Hassan, and other senior officials issued frank warnings that authorities would take stern action against participants in the "illegal" gathering. BERSIH called for a 100,000 demonstrators to gather in Kuala Lumpur on November 10 to demand electoral reforms in the run-up to the next national election (ref A). In his November 9 closing speech at the United Malays National Organization (UMNO) annual assembly, on the eve of the demonstration, Abdullah said people should reject street demonstrations and instead effect change through the polls. He called the planned march illegal because it lacked a police permit and constituted a threat to law and order. Abdullah described the organizers as "stubborn" and said, "Are they trying to challenge the Government and leadership? What they are actually challenging and casting aside is the law." He pointed out that street demonstrations was not the "Malaysian way" and that the "people want the country to always be stable and peaceful." National police chief Musa Hassan advised people in no uncertain terms to stay clear of the rally as there was risk of rioting and "harsh action" would be taken against those participating. Meanwhile police deployed in force in Kuala Lumpur, manning road blocks at key arteries for several days prior to the demonstration. Thousands defy police and weather to march -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Beginning on November 9, some 4000 police, firefighters (with water cannons),RELA (public order auxilliaries),and Federal Reserve Units (FRU, Malaysia's riot police) deployed to the various locations with the heaviest concentration in and around Merdeka (Independence) Square, the announced gathering point for the demonstration. KUALA LUMP 00001613 002 OF 003 By November 10, security forces had completely cordoned off the square. The rally organizers identified at least four nearby alternate sites for participants to assemble. The four selected sites can hold thousands of people and are easily accessible by public transportation. Despite road blocks, interruption of public transportation, and a torrential rain, large crowds wearing yellow attire (a color chosen by BERSIH, in part because of its identification with the King) began to form at the staging areas in advance of the planned 3 pm start. ¶4. (SBU) By 2 pm, thousands of demonstrators were gathered at the two assembly areas closest to Merdeka Square, Masjid Jamek, a central hub along Kuala Lumpur's metro, and Masjid India, about 300 meters from Masjid Jamek, with the rally scheduled to begin at 3pm. Around that time, FRU trucks and personnel deployed water cannons on the crowds at both locations, attempting to disperse the people. According to some reports, about 800 people attempted to storm through the police and managed to get within 50 meters of Merdeka Square before police repelled the group with tear gas. Police allegedly struck a small group of journalists with wood batons; however, there was no other violence from either the police or demonstrators. ¶5. (SBU) With Merdeka Square denied, the crowds in their thousands moved to phase two, and converged on the National Palace to symbolically hand over a petition to the King (who was not in the Palace or in Kuala Lumpur at the time). The police cordoned off the route and allowed the demonstrators to proceed without confrontation. At the palace gates, police told the rally organizers that they could not make speeches, but could deliver a memo and asked them to do so quickly. Organizers responded that they needed to wait for Anwar Ibrahim, de facto leader of the Peoples' Justice Party (PKR) and former Deputy Prime Minister, to arrive to deliver the petition. Anwar arrived shortly before 4 pm, and joined fellow opposition leaders Hadi Awang, from the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS),and Lim Kit Siang, opposition leader in Parliament from the Democratic Action Party (DAP) in delivering the memo to a palace official through bars of the palace gate. The petition called for four electoral reforms: the use of indelible ink (already agreed to by the Election Commission),a cleanup of electoral rolls, abolition of domestic absentee "postal" votes, and fair access to the media. The senior police commander on the scene then asked the organizers to disperse the crowd within five minutes or police would take action. The demonstrators complied without incident and the demonstration drew to a close. ¶6. (SBU) In total, the demonstration lasted approximately two hours from the time the police used water cannons until the demonstrators began disbanding at the National Palace shortly after 4 pm. From first-hand Embassy observations, interviews with demonstrators, and on-line media coverage, the Islamist opposition party PAS appeared to contribute the largest number of protesters, with PAS divisions in other states having organized attendance from their ranks. In all, we estimate that some 20,000 to 35,000 demonstrators gathered at the Palace and the margins of Merdeka Square, while opposition leaders put total attendance at 40,000. By any of these estimates, this was the largest political demonstration in Malaysia since 1998 street protests over the sacking and arrest of Anwar Ibrahim, with the possible exception of a protest over toll price hikes in 2000. ¶7. (SBU) During the course of the demonstration, police stated that they detained some 245 individuals, including 18 minors. Police held 25 of the protestors for questioning, but had released all by November 12. Government Controlled Press Downplays Demonstration -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Although international news organizations, domestic online news portal Malaysiakini, and the local blogging community extensively covered the demonstration, Malaysia's government dominated print and electronic media gave scant mention to the rally. BERSIH officials claimed the Ministries of Information and Internal Security directed local news organizations to not report on the demonstrations, highlighting the need for free access to the media. Most of the government controlled news outlets reported that only 4000 people participated in the demonstration and focused their coverage on disruption of businesses and traffic. Information Minister Zainuddin Maidin engaged in a spat with an Al Jazeera reporter during an on-the-air radio interview, in which he strongly criticized Al Jazeera's coverage that KUALA LUMP 00001613 003 OF 003 highlighted police use of the water cannon, describing the reporting as "biased, unfair, and confusing to people living overseas." He stated the coverage gave the impression that the police were violent when they actually took minimum action to control the crowd. With some evident irritation, Zainuddin added that Malaysia is a democracy, not like Burma. Government After-Action Criticism -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Commenting the day after the rally, Prime Minister Abdullah said the BERSIH demonstration was an attempt to "trap" the royalty into opposition politics. Malaysia's largely ceremonial and apolitical King, Mizan Zainal Abidin, did not comment. Other UMNO leaders joined in the criticism. De facto Law Minister Nazri Aziz said the gathering was a ploy by the opposition to create an excuse for their imminent defeat at the polls. Minister of International Trade and Industry Rafidah Aziz described the demonstration "as a waste of time" as no one including foreign investors took the protestors seriously. Police officials warned of legal action against those protestors who endangered their children by bringing them to the illegal gathering. Opposition's Next Steps -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Opposition leaders described the November 10 demonstration as a "huge success" despite the restrictions and the threats from authorities, and stated that as a next step they would consider petitioning all nine Malay rulers to support their call for election reform. PAS president Hadi Awang noted that PAS will "proceed with appropriate action" if demands for changes to the electoral system are not met. Anwar Ibrahim stated the street demonstration was the right means to send a strong message to "a weak and corrupt government." He encouraged BERSIH to organize a "March of 200,000 to parliament" in three weeks to protest the "corruption, mismanagement, and cruelty" of the present government. Comment -------------- ¶11. (C) Despite harsh warnings, the government had a clear interest in avoiding an incident on November 10 that would boost the credibility of the opposition parties. The international media's initial headlines played up the police use of the water cannon, but except in that instance both the police and rally participants demonstrated discipline in keeping the large protest peaceful. Police did not act to prevent the crowds from reaching the palace, though police had many assets in the area. When given the directive to disperse after delivering their petition, opposition leaders had an opportunity to create an incident; instead, they decided to disband peacefully. The November 10 events contrast with the mishandling of the September rally in Terengganu, when use of force by the police on an unapproved BERSIH rally precipitated a riot (ref B). ¶12. (C) Opposition parties can count the November 10 demonstration as an important tactical success, with a turnout in the tens of thousands that exceeded most expectations, given the government's robust warnings and banning of the event, the heavy security presence and torrential rains. This does not mean that the electoral reforms called for are more probable; in particular, fair access to the media is a systemic issue not likely to be addressed any time soon. On a more partisan political level, opposition parties demonstrated their relevance with the large turnout that attracted international attention. Anwar Ibrahim appeared to act as the protest's most prominent leader, as evidenced by the key role he played at the Palace gates. This will provide no comfort to UMNO leaders, who tend to worry about Anwar's drawing power on the streets. That Anwar and other opposition leaders proceeded successfully in the face of PM Abdullah's personal warnings should bolster the opposition's resolve and embolden them to plan further events. For the same reason, the November 10 demonstration might also result in a hardening of the government's position when faced, as it seems it will be, with prospects for another major street demonstration and a further public challenge to governmental authority. KEITH