PM'S AIDE SAYS TERENGGANU RIOT WILL SCARE AWAY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KUALA LUMPUR 001400 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EAP/MTS AND INR E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/14/2027 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR KDEM KISL MY SUBJECT: PM'S AIDE SAYS TERENGGANU RIOT WILL SCARE AWAY CHINESE VOTERS FROM OPPOSITION REF: KUALA LUMPUR 1377 - POLICE BREAK UP TERENGGANU RALLY Classified By: POLITICAL SECTION CHIEF MARK D. CLARK, REASON 1.4 (B AND D). Summary -------------- ¶1. (C) Wan Farid (protect throughout),a political aide to Prime Minister Abdullah Badawi, during a September 12 meeting with polchief, denied his involvement in the September 8 Terengganu riot and instead alleged opposition parties had planned the violence in order to boost public sympathy for their cause. Ethnic Chinese voters prioritize security, however, and the violence would serve to scare them back into the camp of the ruling National Front (BN),countering the perceived trend of increasing Chinese support for the opposition. Commenting on prospects in key states in the next election, Wan Farid saw no problem for BN to retain control of Terengganu thought the opposition would fall flat in Sabah, and hoped the Terengganu violence would dampen opposition support in Chinese-majority Penang. Wan Farid was less optimistic regarding BN's hopes to capture Kelantan, the only state in opposition hands. Polchief raised U.S. concern over Iranian shipments via Malaysia (the Target Airfreight case) and trafficking in persons, with Wan Farid offering to assist on both counts in the future. Wan Farid said PM Abdullah would maintain a very hectic travel schedule through the Ramadan season. End Summary. Terengganu Riot -------------- ¶2. (C) Wan Farid, political secretary to PM Abdullah Badawi in Abdullah's role as Minister for Internal Security, told polchief September 12 that he had no hand in the September 8 riot in Terengganu (reftel),contrary to accusations leveled against him by the Islamic Party of Malaysia (PAS, the Islamist opposition party). (Note: Wan Farid hails from Terengganu, and met police and UMNO party officials there on September 8-9. End Note.) Instead, opposition parties had planned the violence in order to generate public sympathy and rekindle the 1998-1999 "reformasi" spirit (a reference to the opposition movement at the time of the Asian financial crisis and the arrest of former Deputy Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim). Opposition supporters' use of Molotov cocktails stood as evidence of premeditated violence, he claimed. ¶3. (C) Comment: The government and UMNO continue to exchange claims and counter-claims with the opposition parties regarding the Terengganu violence. The government's version of events dominates the state-controlled mainstream media, painting opposition supporters as dangerous and unpatriotic troublemakers, with particular focus on the photo of an alleged protester setting fire to a Malaysian flag. Opposition parties claim the police staged the photo to incriminate them; allege government provocateurs ignited the violence; and condemn lack of respect for freedom of assembly and the use of force against their ranks. PAS will hold its next rally (ceramah) the evening of September 14 in a PAS-built mosque in Terengganu. End Comment. ¶4. (C) Wan Farid commented that ethnic Chinese voters placed a high priority on law and order issues. Scenes of rioting in Terengganu would remind them of the risks of empowering the opposition and would result in greater support for BN. The PM's aide hoped BN could capitalize on this to reverse the perceived trend of increasing ethnic Chinese support for the opposition Democratic Action Party (DAP). Electoral Prospects in Key States -------------- ¶5. (C) Polchief queried Wan Farid on the BN and leading United Malays National Organization (UMNO) prospects in key states during the coming national election. The PM's aide offered the following comments: -- Terengganu: UMNO would retain the state in the next general election. State civil servants, who formerly worked under PAS when the Islamist opposition held the state, were now firmly behind UMNO. PAS allegations of phantom voters were baseless. -- Sabah: UMNO state Chief and Chief Minister Datuk Musa KUALA LUMP 00001400 002 OF 002 Aman is "doing a good job" and therefore BN would have no problem in maintaining its dominance. (Note: BN controls all 25 parliamentary positions and 59 out of the 60 state seats.) The opposition lacks strong leadership in the state and the resources to sustain a serious campaign due to Sabah's extended size and limited transportation network -- even BN/UMNO finances were strained by the costs of campaigning in Sabah. -- Penang: BN's prospects had been "shaky" due to the possibility of Chinese votes swinging to the opposition DAP. However, the Terengganu riot would have an effect similar to the 1998-1999 "reformasi" demonstrations, which resulted in a concerned Chinese community voting in favor of BN in the 1999 poll. -- Kelantan: The inability of UMNO/BN leader Annuar Musa to unite various factions in the state would affect BN's chances to take control of Kelantan, the only state in opposition hands. In order to send a clear signal to the public that BN/UMNO had confidence in winning at the state level, BN had decided that no leaders in Kelantan would contest both a state seat and a national parliament seat (viewed as a safer option). Kelantan parliamentarian Zaid Ibrahim remained suspended from his UMNO party position and currently had no standing to run under BN. Next UMNO Assembly -------------- ¶6. (C) Wan Farid stated that UMNO had shifted the date for its annual party assembly to November 5 in order to avoid the Hindu Deepavali public holiday. He stressed there would be no repeat of last year's disastrous live television broadcast of the assembly, which had damaged BN's support among the Chinese (through unedited broadcast of aggressive, chauvinistic Malay rhetoric). Raising U.S. Concerns on Iran, TIP -------------- ¶7. (S) Polchief raised U.S. concerns over the possibility of Iranian purchases and shipments via Malaysia of goods in violation of U.S. laws, noting the public U.S. sanctions against Target Airfreight. Polchief said we viewed such matters very seriously from the perspective of U.S. national security, and the security of our friends and allies in the Middle East. Wan Farid appeared to pay close attention to these remarks and replied, "I hope you are not talking about Scomi" (a company, controlled by the Prime Minister's son Kamaluddin, whose subsidiary was implicated in the A.Q. Khan network's proliferation activities). Wan Farid said he would be willing to raise future such U.S. concerns to the attention of the Prime Minister. ¶8. (C) Polchief also explained the U.S. trafficking in persons tier-ranking decision, and urged Malaysian actions to implement the new TIP law and open the victims' shelters that the GOM already has prepared. Wan Farid said he would look into the implementation of the new law and advocate for the prosecution of traffickers. (Note: The Ministry of Internal Security, which Wan Farid is attached to, is the coordinating agency for anti-trafficking under the new law. End Note.) PM Abdullah's Schedule and Stamina -------------- ¶9. (C) Wan Farid said PM Abdullah had followed a grueling schedule of events and travel in recent weeks, and this would continue. The Prime Minister would depart for UNGA September 24 or 25, and return to Malaysia October 6, after visiting London and performing "Umrah" in Saudi Arabia. Upon his return, Abdullah would embark on Ramadan tours of the states, a task he would divide with Deputy Prime Minister Najib. When scheduling the PM's travel, Wan Farid said he attempted to build in two or three-hour breaks between events to ensure the Prime Minister remained adequately rested. SHEAR